How does the estimated wins system works? SEE EDIT

Magic!

That^ or some complicated algorithms

How many giveaways you have entered, how many entries they had and magic maths. Probably.

Pure guesswork, they needed to give the office temp something to do.

If you enter a giveaway with 10 entries it goes up by 0.1. If you enter a giveaway with 50 entries it goes up by 0.05. It just means how many games you would have won statistically if the giveaways weren't completely random.

If I recall correctly, cg explained it at some other thread when replying to someone. I'm not sure if there's been an official announcement explaining how it works.

No, I'm lucky here!

You need to use your imagination and believe.

Well, I'm only expected to win one more gift here, given my estimate. Let's hope it's a good one!

winner!

This is complete BS, where is the 0.53 part of a game I should have won?!

As posted by cg in a previous thread: SUM(1/MAX(1,(Gift.Entries/Gift.Copies)))

I was tempted to figure out my own estimated wins, but I didn't want to go through my history to copy the data for thousands of entries.

Hrm, the estimate says 3.02, while my actual wins is 1. That's about what I expected. Actually, I expected the estimate to be a little higher. I've been entering some less popular DLC stuff lately (I have the base games), which should be shifting things.