It takes the total entries of everything you've entered for, and divides it by your actual entries... so, theoretically it is ~accurate, quest a question of whether or not the law of averages applies to the numbers, and luck. (Luck variation will decrease as values bring theoretical and actual values closer together with more data.)
Comment has been collapsed.
That's the problem with probabilities. Sure, you have a 50-50 chance of flipping "heads" on a coin with each try, but that doesn't mean you ever will. It's possible (albeit unlikely) to never flip "heads," ever.
Comment has been collapsed.
I used my mod powers to steal 1.09 giveaways from you all. What you gonna do 'bout it? Punk.
Comment has been collapsed.
It's there for me. Wonder how it's calculated and what it's supposed to tell us. Is it the collected overall odds (If you use the browser extension every giveaway you enter shows your odds of winning) of every giveaway we entered and how many times we should have been able to win, from a statistical standpoint?
Mine is 7.86 and I have won 8 games. So it's about right.
My guess is this can be used for two things:
A: Telling if you're truly "unlucky"- Unless your "estimated wins" is a solid number and you still haven't won anything, you probably just need to hang in there and aren't getting screwed by karma. Even then it would take a fairly wide gap. For shits and gigs lets say I won once but entered enough giveaways that I should have 10 games by now. This may dispel people from posting "I entered x giveaways and haven't won anything".
B: It would make a half-assed way of figuring out if you're "due", I imagine. Once my "Estimated Wins" creeps past 8 and toward 9 I'll start wondering what my next win will be. Not to be taken as gospel of course, but a vague indicator.
Comment has been collapsed.
This will only bring up more forum posts, as long as it's not explained in the FAQ
Comment has been collapsed.
Yes! I'm a lucky bastard! I have 26,56 estimated wins and I've won 27 TIMES :D
Comment has been collapsed.
Nah, I just won one more, but I still beat that. I think there's someone worse off than me somewhere in here though, but I move past the whiners too fast to remember.
Comment has been collapsed.
I like the new feature, seems fairly accurate and informative.
Comment has been collapsed.
How do you enter almost 4000 giveaways and only have 3 estimated wins? Do you like, only enter AAA games? Like damn.
Comment has been collapsed.
I only really enter games that i want. Things like half life 2, before i bought it in the winter sale, bioshock, assasins creed, so yeah, pretty much AAA titles.
I could have entered all of the DOTA2, the ship or indie movie giveaways, but i dont want any of those games.
Comment has been collapsed.
You DIDN'T enter every single DOTA 2 giveaway? What is WRONG with you?
Comment has been collapsed.
That's ok, I saw that you gave back more than that. You're forgiven.
I took 0.17 away from others myself....
Comment has been collapsed.
171 Comments - Last post 1 minute ago by Insound
17,662 Comments - Last post 47 minutes ago by Shughes91
29 Comments - Last post 1 hour ago by reigifts
55 Comments - Last post 1 hour ago by drjoenh
363 Comments - Last post 5 hours ago by spodamayn
3,834 Comments - Last post 5 hours ago by FateOfOne
20 Comments - Last post 8 hours ago by BlazeHaze
704 Comments - Last post 8 minutes ago by Durb
810 Comments - Last post 22 minutes ago by MedinaRoscoe
201 Comments - Last post 28 minutes ago by wigglenose
343 Comments - Last post 29 minutes ago by Ruphine
42 Comments - Last post 32 minutes ago by Snardvark
11,428 Comments - Last post 33 minutes ago by 123pln
3 Comments - Last post 34 minutes ago by Aydaylin
Was talking to someone and noticed that a new stat appeared on the profile. Wonder how it works~
It seems like the estimated wins is how many wins you should statistically have based on your giveaway entries.
For example if you enter only 100 giveaways each with 1000 entries; your estimate would be 0.10. If you entered only 50 giveaways but each with 5 entries, you estimate would be 10.00.
Cheers! :D
Edit: It disappeared, I smell ninjas at work ._.
Edit2: It's back
Edit3: Seems like the algorithm has been updated
Comment has been collapsed.