Because of the low amount of GA entered and the high quantity of users in them.
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karma started to slowly return to balance, with just -10 overall, and mainly oscillating months of either lucky of +6 or unlucky of -12
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You're definitely lucky then. I hope to find a way to end my curse soon. I'm currently sitting at -21 myself.
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I haven't won a game for like 1,5 months. You have won so recently. So unfair. I'm so sad right now. ;_;
EDIT: Nevermind, I'm blind. But I'm sure you'll win sooner than me. :'(
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RNG is RNG here. It can be a tender lover like it is to users like Zelghadis, and it can be a complete dick to others.
I've been known to go between a week to two months without seeing Spacecat. At the moment I'm on 6 days since I last saw Spacecat.
You have only been here a week. It takes time. Just be patient.
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lol why spacecat and i was just wondering how low some peoples were cause i've noticed mine go really far down in luck and i was intrigued to find someone who has the lowest so far
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The last time I won a game, was over a year ago.
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Well I tend to only enter for wishlist games but still luck has been smacking the crap out of me.
1,108 entries
5 wins in 2+ years
2 of those wins everybody who entered won, 2 more had 4,800+ keys.
Only 1 legitimate Wooo Hooo win.
Last win 6+ months ago.
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Overall, you've been unlucky, and won 49 less gifts than estimated since you first joined.
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unlucky may one day you win 50 games consecutively
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No worries.
You can also ask for the contrary, since all the people with negative stats are balanced out by people with positive stats :)
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oooh this is making me wonder who has the best luck now don't think people will have insane amounts though
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Ok, I can't compete with that sheer number, but my last win was December 10th. (7 months ago)
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An interesting "shape" of luck :)
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its in statistics on the top right
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My vote goes to people in war-torn countries or people who have lost a child, or something along those lines
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nono wheres the imagination in that-my vote goes to the person struck by 20 lightningbolts over the course of a week then hit by a sharknado!
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shhh thats sad
Getting hit by a sharknado sounds like the way to go...If you have to die I mean.
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my vote goes to this guy who bought 2 pizzas for 10000 bitcoins in 2010 ;)
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seriously thou. if I was this guy and realized that money that would set me up for life and not just that but probably set up my kids for life as well I spent on 2 pizzas I would probably fall into depression I would never get out of.
10000BC is over 23 millions USD nowadays o.O
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Wow, you're not kidding. Sauce for anyone who cares
Man, that's rough. I don't think I'd be ever to climb outta that depression either. There's no way to have known at the time bitcoin was gonna blow up like that though.
Then there's that one guy who lost his hard drive that had $7.5 million worth of bitcoins in the landfill. Rumor has it he's still out there wandering the landfill looking for that hard drive to this very day.
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Here's the guy's post history and then here's the pictures of the pizza he bought..
To be fair..that pizza does look really good.
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*I spent it all on pizza long ago: https://blockchain.info/address/1XPTgDRhN8RFnzniWCddobD9iKZatrvH4
3-4 years ago there were less than 100 people frequenting this forum, and I was pretty happy to trade 10,000 coins for pizza. I mean people can say I'm stupid, but it was a great deal at the time. I don't think anyone could have known it would take off like this.
Laszlo
He seems to be taking it pretty well. With that said, his last post was in 2014, so that's worrisome. Gahhh what an interesting story.
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My vote goes to this woman: http://www.businessinsider.com/melanie-martinez-lost-her-fifth-home-to-hurricane-isaac-2012-9
Though she did survive, so I guess shes got that going for her...
Also, this: http://newsfeed.time.com/2012/02/02/unluckiest-person-ever-entire-town-wins-lottery-except-for-one-man/
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Mine was at -50 for my all-time luck, and then I had my luckiest month ever in June, now I am up to -41 all-time:)
But I consider myself very lucky and am thankful for every win!
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Overall, you've been unlucky, and won 34 less gifts than estimated since you first joined.
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it was, -16.05. Still far away from record - one SimGiv, 1.5 or 2 years ago, I ended up -30 ;)
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still won't complain ;) I won more games here than most of other users will ever win, so what difference does it make 30 games this way or the other way? ;) for me it's just 1% fluctuation, which is totally normal, for someone with just a few wins it would be actually very unlucky ;)
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Just to point it out - if you're really looking for the unluckiest person, don't look at the "X less won than expected stat"
someone won 500 and won 40 less than expected, it's then 500/540=92,6% lucky. Zelghadis' 34 less than expected ("only" 2955) means 2955/2989 = 98% lucky.
(You know, on the basis of you win a coiinflip - 50:50. If I lose half of my 10 flips, and you lose half of your 100, we're equaliity unlucky, because 5/10 = 50/100 )
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thats going of percentage luck though. say if someone did the lottery once they would have say a 1%(miles away from being accurate) to win but lost, they hit that 99% chance to lose. say if someone did the lottery 100 times with the same chance and lost them all you would have to do 0.99^100 that will give you there chance of losing all 100 times they did the lottery which comes to 0.37 (rounded), so 37%. So both have lost 100%, but one person had 99% to get a loss for their 100% and the other had a 37% chance to get all their losses so they also go 100%.
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my wording could have been more accurate, like not 98% lucky but 98% of expected luck, or something like that.
I think I get what you're saying, but it's still different - your example is the standard example of probability of failing/not failing X times, where the events (same lottery) are unchanged, and we know the chances of winning in each case. I'm not sure, but I think SG sums up your individual giveaways , and compares the reality to that. Like you had 5 giveaways with 5 entrants each time - you should have won 1, if you won 0, or 2, then you're extremely lucky/unlucky because of the 0 or double number of wins. Though I really don't know how SG stats deal with fractions. The important thing is IMO more of a statistics than strict mathematical sense is that relative luck is way better for description than absolute luck. Like my stats say I won one less than I should have (still 235 wins), but that 1 win could mean 0/1 for someone, being more meaningful.
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i think the luck really depends on how continuous you get losses/wins though as well rather than looking at them all at one point, luck is something that is hard to work out since there is many different variables that could change the actual value of it and the many different ideas of luck.
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not really. adam made it all sound really complicated, so let's go with an easier to relate example. We have two people X and Y. both X and Y won 10 GAs less than expected. BUT. X won 990 GAs. He should have won 1000 but won 990. Y won 0 Giveaways. He should have won 10 so far but never won a single GA. Common sense - who would you call more unlucky? X who was actually unlucky only in 1% of GAs overall or Y who was unlucky 100% of the time, never won a single GA when by statistics he should have already won 10?
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statistically 1000 is luckier but in some cases where the gaps are smaller dependent on the consistency it can change the outcome of luck for the recent games. I see what you mean though. if we look at GA's with a 5% chance of winning if someone enters 5 we would do (0.95^4)x0.05 as this would represent 1 possible win outcome whereas there is 5 outcomes such as winning the first entry or second etc etc. so we would multiply this number by 5 giving us a total of 0.204 (Rounded) = 20.4%. If we were to look at someone to win 2 times from 10 GA's with the same chances we would have to do (0.95^8)x0.05^2 for one outcome, and i believe there is 45 outcomes so multiply the number by 45 which gives us 0.074 (rounded) = 7.4%.
If somewhere in my equation is wrong tell me or if i worked out the wrong outcomes tell me
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going based off the stats that steamgifts use though you are correct but if you look at each percentage for the games and make a tree from it you will get different percentages
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lol your so unlucky you should get gifts. damn you actually have some decent luck there good on you. whispers "whats your secret did you hack the system"
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her secret is screwing up with you, she modified source code of the website to show fake data on her browser only, screencapped it to troll you as trolling seems to be the core base of her existence ;)
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go write walls of text to lecture others, seems it's the only thing you do around here. 💜
oh no wait, you also have no sense of humor. 2 things. 😎
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ohh, did your reading capacities got so much worse? calling a 1 sentence = 1.5 lines = 204 characters a wall of text? btw oh my god, I'm so sorry, I didn't realize I just go over one line here as well... sorry for another wall of text ;(((
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1st of all - you are in no position to tell me to go away. It's a public forum, you posting publicly in it gotta understand harsh truth that someone may reply to you. I know, oh the horror etc, but if it's so unbearable maybe stop posting, noone will 'harass' you by writing reply you may not like because maybe it's not 100% in with what you said... ;(
Also I did not harass you, and if you believe I did, it was surely no more than you 'harassed' me 2 comments above. I don't see it as harassment, but if you do, feel free to write a 3 A4 pages long forum topic about how you got horribly harrassed in forums again, this time by 204 characters long wall of text ;*
Best regards, now time to go to sleep. Thanks for a little bit of cheer before sleepy time <3
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yes, i am in position and it's my right to tell you to stop replying to ME.
if i don't want you to reply to me, especially like you always do, and you keep doing it, then it IS considered harassing.
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nope, harassment is not defined by what you think is harassment, like "oh no this person replied to me in public forum while I don't want them replying to me, he's harassing me!!11oneoneleven". GDoing by your definition I could tell that seeing your assvatar in any forum thread I feel harassed by your presence there. So please posting on forums at all becayse this is harassing me! ;(
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Now that you two have reminded us about how you don't get along. shall we declare a ceasefire?
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yeah whatever, stop replying to me unless you wanna see what's the definition support has.
btw, for someone sooo anti-bullying, you are doing a great job being an hypocrite.
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if you wouldn't keep replying to me I would surely not reply to you. Stop harassing me with your replies!!!111oneoneleven
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Was that necessary? "If You Have Nothing Nice To Say, Don't Say Anything At All"
If you don't like what another person posts, then lead by example and show them a different way. Don't intentionally egg them on.
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yes it was necessary, you especially as support should understand that even in basic situations like this one the recipient of the reply may not understand something is joking, sarcasm or screwing around and jump to wrong conclusions. Like that there's something wrong/rigged with the system. Especially as OPs comment could indicate him taking comment seriously.
Let me remind you all the fuss support used to do in the past over "if you want to win as much as me buy SG Premium account" comments, even including suspensions. How is that any different? And no, inb4 "zelg wants mully suspended for silly comment" - I do not, I just point that what you are saying is inconsistent with what has been established by support themselves many times in the past. And excuse "it's Mully, so you should expect it will probably be trolling, flaming etc" is not excuse at all. I may know it, you may know it, random user may not know it. The same as for example with joking begging. We know person is joking but we still tell them not to do it, because some newbie make not know it and jump to wrong conclusion that begging is ok.
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understand that even in basic situations like this one the recipient of the reply may not understand something is joking, sarcasm or screwing around and jump to wrong conclusions.
What? Like "lol your so unlucky you should get gifts. damn you actually have some decent luck there good on you. whispers "whats your secret did you hack the system""
Come on brother, meet me half way here. If you were trying to enlighten and prevent OP from "jumping to wrong conclusions", there's better ways of conveying that then "to troll you as trolling seems to be the core base of her existence ;)". You posted here to start shit and stir up drama and I'm asking you not to go out of your way to do so again in the future as a fellow user of SG. I don't love this website to come here daily to watch users bicker back and forth with each other like children. Grow up and show some maturity.
Let me remind you all the fuss support used to do in the past over "if you want to win as much as me buy SG Premium account" comments, even including suspensions. How is that any different? And no, inb4 "zelg wants mully suspended for silly comment" - I do not, I just point that what you are saying is inconsistent with what has been established by support themselves many times in the past. And excuse "it's Mully, so you should expect it will probably be trolling, flaming etc" is not excuse at all. I may know it, you may know it, random user may not know it. The same as for example with joking begging. We know person is joking but we still tell them not to do it, because some newbie make not know it and jump to wrong conclusion that begging is ok.
I'm asking you not to go intentionally try to piss someone off. Please tell me how that in any way is connected to the "SG premium" joke. Again, if you're trying to relay that Mully's comment isn't to be taken literally, you could have simply said the picture has been edited most likely and moved on with life. In a mature adult tone. I know you're capable of relaying that across the internet. Heck, if you were that concerned about her comment, you could have submitted a support ticket and then moved on with life.
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You posted here to start shit and stir up dramaNo I did not, I came here for legit discussion, as you can see by 8 replies I posted before Mully ever showed her face here. But I kinda get your reply that what you mean by your post was about form, not about what I was posting about, this was my misinterpretation of your comment, I read it as if I don't like what person posted I should not reply at all, so ok, I meet you mid-ground here, even if I don't believe that calling a known troll a troll is such immature thing to do I will refrain myself from posting any more replies to her at least in this thread. sorry.
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I let my frustration get to me in my last comment, I'm sorry for that. I shouldn't have taken that tone and I should have taken a gentler approach. I was talking with a friend about a different matter today that ended up reminding me that I can't know another person's circumstances in life and how I need to keep that in the back of my mind when interacting with people. It was a sad reminder, but one I appreciate that I got.
Anyways, I appreciate the ceasefire. No hard feelings on my end, let's continue to make this website a place we love to visit and win games from. :)
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While you're here "softening the blow" and apologizing for warning him after he blatantly attacked another user for making a simple joke, another mod did what needed to be done.
Kudos to that mod. It's about damned time someone did something about his attacks on other users.
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said Tzaar, knight in a shiny armor, who totally never 'harassed' and 'attacked' anyone on the forums in continuous posts if said person simply dared to have opinion different than his own ^^
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Oddly, you've just described yourself perfectly (as is evident in this thread and many others).
Sorry, Zelghadis, you'll never be able to bait me, but you're welcome to keep trying. :)
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I was not trying to bait you, just to reply in a fashion that would not be able to interpret as 'harassment' so you would not feel the urge to follow your friend to report how horribly harassed by me you got :)
That being explained I'd ask to end this conversation, because my little personal feelings feel harassed by any sarcastic reply you may post :(
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It's Mully, she's hated by the Staff so loved by the system.
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I bet she's using the dark theme. Legend says it gives the user an extra 35% luck.
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I'm pretty sure the Staff hates people. I'm still blacklisted by some of them despite the recent changes to how blacklists work.
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The Staff is not one big people amalgamate that has one will and mind. Everyone can like and dislike what they want. And I don't think they have constant fights what is better: cats or dogs. They are the same people as they were before getting support / mod status but they gained ability to ban ppl. And they can also individually like or dislike people.
And I didn't remove single user from my BL after introduction of two-way blacklists. I didn't enter in GAs from those people either way. And I think that removing someone from BL just to be able to win more games is childish. Like need to win moar games is stronger than reason and morality that was behind putting someone there.
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^ What MSKOTOR said.
While the Staff are united in their efforts to keep SG a nice place to frequent, we do not pursue any personal vendetta's against particular individuals While I know that a few of the Staff have a dislike for one user or another,, I've never seen actual hate from any of them. You may be exaggerating in your choice of words, Koitenshin, or perhaps you're reading more into our actions than is warranted?
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You're words are always so clear and coherent. It's gold. As the years of knowing you on SG you continue to rub off your wisdom to us.
TL;DR thanks for being awesome
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I try to be clear and concise, but I don't always succeed. On those occasions when I do manage to say something useful, I thank God for the blessing.
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According to the stats page I've won 2 less then I should have. But after being here for nearly a year and only winning 11 games I feel more unlucky then that...
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To date, have not won a game from this site... That's pretty bad luck :P
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The average person enters 2700 more giveaways than you have in the eight months you've been here, and wins one or two games in that time period.
There's nothing wrong with entering fewer giveaways, but entering more of them will increase your odds of winning.
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I enter giveaways for games I want to play.... Not gonna enter give aways for things that i have zero interest in just to win something lol... :P
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That's a good attitude to take. It's a real bummer when you win a game you didn't want. P
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Hah... I would not waste my luck on a game i didn't want.. but i know there are people out there with accounts that have thousands of games on them... more power to them. not for me.
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You may find that your luck stat isn't really that bad given how few you have entered.
https://www.steamgifts.com/stats/personal/community
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I only enter giveaways for games i'd actually play. oh well :P
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Nothing wrong with that. Just saying your luck stat probably is still safe. :P
Wish I had as much restraint as you.
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Hah. I don't know if it's restraint... it's more like.... I don't want to clutter my account with games that i'll never play. Hell I have enough games that I paid for thinking i'd play them a bunch, and then only played them a few hours :P
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what's the average rate of winning games? 1 per 2 months?
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Depends what level you are, what groups you're in, and what type of giveaways you enter. I'm averaging 18 a month. If you only enter 6 public giveaways in 2 weeks at level 0-1, you're not going to win much.
Welcome to SteamGifts! Take a look at the Unlucky 7 group. If you've won 7 or less games, we offer low entry giveaways to get you started.
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thanks! I think I have to wait a month and a half to quality for unlucky 7 but will definitely check it out
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Should be lower overall. There are one million users and ~80k giveaways a month. Even if the average key count is around 2/giveaway due to all of those massive key drops, it is around 6-8 months for a person on average.
Then of course if the active user base is half, so is the length.
And finally, it is anything but even. Zelghadis and wany must win their 500-500 giveaways each week, and the rest of the users can come only after that. :D
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lol interesting. I guess I'll mostly stay for the forums and discussions then
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Annnyyywwwaaaayyys.
Welcome to the site NutheadRM! I would suggest to read FAQ and Guidelines if you haven't already.
You can find all informations you need about Contributor Level here and here.
Some useful guides:
- https://www.steamgifts.com/discussion/o6v2O/a-beginners-guide-to-giveaways-winning
- https://www.steamgifts.com/discussion/4tFef/a-quick-overview-guide-of-sgv2
- https://www.steamgifts.com/about/comment-formatting
Giveaway settings
It's a good practice checking the winner's profile before delivering a gift and, if the winner didn't activate some games, or if he won the same game multiple times, you should request a new winner.
As far as my luck stat, it's not as bad as some other users here. :D
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It used to be "average" for a user to enter 3,000 giveaways in his first six months on the site, garnering his first win in the process. With the changes to the site, I have no idea what the "average" is, now. Even so, your "luck" is looking fairly average at the moment, so you might expect to win something soon if you just keep entering giveaways.
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Why are there so many cases of extreme luck/bad luck here? Are there really that few "average" persons here? :P
I am pretty content with my luck (Even though it has worsened over the past few months but it has never been as extreme as for some people I see here ^^
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If you think you have reasonably bad luck with winning games post how low your luck has gotten
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