Regardless of what your graph says do you think you've been lucky on Steamgifts?
+15. Could do with a little less luck (or have it somewhere else), but hey, not my decision.
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back down to 2! entering those whitelisted games really hurt my stats, i was i fine with my 1 less win. also the poll is very even from what im seeing now with 135 for yes and 133 for no
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I stopped to enter in many GAs some time ago. So my stats didn't change in a year or so.
I did meet some wonderful people here though, so I do consider myself to be lucky anyway :D
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yo i just noticed that i'm on 3 blacklists, is that normal or should i feel bad about myself
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People will blacklist you for entirely petty reasons like having an avatar they don't like, being from the wrong country, not giving away a hundred games on the day you joined the site etc.
I wouldn't worry about being on a few blacklists too much.
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I'm on 8 blacklists. Wouldn't worry about it, some people BL for the smallest reason!
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don't worry...just be nice and you get whitelisted as well ;)
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Still unlucky (-11) but I've been lucky three out of the last six months after not having won in more than a year. I even won a game yesterday! :)
BTW, there are lots of threads on this if you're curious in a historical context. Also, I think the topic tends to bias slightly toward people who are unlucky, because they're perhaps more likely to respond.
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I think I would give up if I hadn't won in a year!
Thanks I'll probably check out those other threads at some point!
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Well, I'd only entered about 150 giveaways in that time. Although some of them were pretty high odds, like 1 in 6, 8, 12, etc.
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Eh, I've been lucky overall.
Stats say I've won more games than I should have, which is nice, but more importantly I won a bunch of nice hidden gems too, which I otherwise would have missed.
I also won a bunch of games that looked interesting but turned out to be duds, and in a moment of temporary insanity I entered a Bad Rats GA that I won though. Such is the luck of the draw.
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Haha, someone mentioned Bad Rats earlier too! I try to only enter for games that I know I'll like or at least will be very likely to enjoy. Saves winning a bunch of trash games for no reason.
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I still maintain that the Bad Rats dev would have filed for bankruptcy if it weren't for SG. I can just picture him/her thinking, "wow, people really love this game-- I'm a great game developer!" :p
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Overall, you've been unlucky, and won 30 fewer gifts than estimated since you first joined. So unlucky even if not at the bottom. :)
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I'd say overall I've been lucky, despite stats saying -7.
Lately, well, behold the calm waters of the Red Sea. With some plastic bottles floating around one spot.
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What should i read and in which part of the graphic , lol
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I'm +11 on luck but I also tend to enter strategically and sometimes leave GAs with high entry count to spend the points elsewhere after all. Or rather now I'm more strategical about it, didn't use to be XD I'm sure I could optimize even better than that but I'm slowly learning my way around.
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Your "strategy" is irrelevant for the calculation of your luck.
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^ what he said
Winning/Not winning lower entries GA impacts your luck stat proportionally higher to difference in number of entries in high entries GA.
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Threads like this always remind me of this pic i saved. Hope Khalaq doesn't mind I post it every now and then ;)
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I didn't win a lot but it's saying "Overall, you've been neither lucky or unlucky, and won the exact number of gifts we estimated since you first joined."
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98.4% of the expected wins - so "unlucky", but at a degree that is very easy to ignore.
4 fewer than expected, with 254 won / 258 expected
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i think, i was pretty lucky. got some very good games and won them without invitation or group-membership. that's what i was hoping for, when i came to steamgifts. infact i entered a ton of giveaways, therefor i may have been not that lucky, but i'm not complaining. as long as i see more nice people in here than making bad experiences, everything is fine ;)
ah ya: i wish y'all good luck for your next entries ;)
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The graph is very misleading and a poor indication of how lucky someone is. Let me deconstruct it for you:
People who join a lot of GA's but are not in (many) groups/whitelists with few entries, will have a very "unlucky" graph.
People who join few GA's and are not in (many) groups/whitelists with few entries, will have mostly a flatline "unlucky/lucky" graph. The fewer GA's they enter the more it'll be a flatline.
People who join a lot of GA's and are in many groups/whitelists with few entries, will have a very dynamic graph.
People who join few GA's and are in many groups/whitelists with few entries, will have a very "lucky" graph.
Since the graph doesn't take these things into account it's a poor indication of someone's luck. I personally feel quite unlucky the last months, but I'm ok with it.
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I think the graph is a pretty decent indication of your luck as it does take into account small or large amounts of entries into a GA.
If you enter into a GA with 1000 other people and lose, your graph will hardly move because your percentage chance of winning was very small.
If you enter into a GA with 1 other person and lose your graph will shift a decent amount because you had a large percentage chance at winning.
It would certainly be nice if you could change the graph to show only public/group/invite only GA's but as an overall visual of your luck its pretty good.
The only thing the graph doesn't take into account is the value of the games you've won. You could be 'lucky' and only win games under $5 or you could be unlucky and win a small amount of games all over $40.
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Sure the graph makes sense in a way, but let me rephrase it, to me personally it's a poor indication of how lucky someone is. If it works for you that's great.
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What he said above: the math takes number entries into account 100%.
What it doesn't take into account is how long you've been in the site-- if you've been here since the beginning of SG and are at plus-20, that's "lucky" but not as lucky as somebody who's gotten to plus-20 after six months.
And of course it doesn't take into account game value, how "good" the game is, how new/unbundled/bundled/trash it is, etc. The only requirement is that you entered the GA for it, and ofc people have very different standards on that.
But I agree that the notion of "being lucky" is more than just the mathematical calculation the site provides.
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Like I said to Fenchurch, I'm not saying the graph is wrong, I'm saying it's a poor indication for me personally. It doesn't take into account people who are in groups/whitelists/high level or join a lot of invite only/big amount give aways compared to people who don't. The first kind of people automatically have a lot better odds and therefor better "luck", than the latter hence it's a poor indication. The same goes for people who join a lot of GA's versus those that join few, the graph would indicate the first kind of people are unluckier than the latter.
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But Fenchurch and I are saying that it specifically DOES "take into account people who are in groups/whitelists/high level or join a lot of invite only/big amount give aways compared to people who don't." The first kind of person have better odds to win (say, 1 in 10 in a small group giveaway), but how lucky they are is impacted proportionally to those who enter 5000-entry public GAs. If you win more than one of these 1-in-10 GAs, then you're "lucky," because your "estimated wins" would be only 1. If you win three of them, then "you've won 2 more gifts than estimated" using the site's phrasing. If second kind of person who entered only 5000-entry public GAs would have to lose 5000 times before they became "unlucky" (depending on how exactly the site rounds numbers).
In other words, having better odds doesn't mean "more likely to be lucky." It just means "more likely to win." At least that's my understanding of it.
But what I was saying in my second paragraph above is that it doesn't take into account total entries to "grade your luck on a curve" if you will. If Joe joined the site in 2014 and has won 10 more gifts than estimated since he first joined, and Fred joined the site last month and has won 10 more gifts than estimated since he first joined, then I think it's safe to say that Fred was "luckier" than Joe. This is irrespective of whether Joe or Fred joined small group or large public GAs.
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I don't feel that's the way the graph works though, I'm not sure if it's explained somewhere or by someone (who knows 100% for sure) how the graph calculates luck? As far as I can tell it takes the average amount of entries (for the GA's you entered) and devides that by the amount of GA's you enter and compares that number to the amount of GA's you won.
But perhaps I'm wrong and you know 100% sure that is how the graph works. It could be that it's just my perception, but I don't feel like the graph is a good indication since people who say they're lucky tend be the same people who enter GA's with good odds, while people who say they're very unlucky tend to be those that enter a lot of GA's over a short amount of time.
As I said before If it works for you that's great, to me it doesn't feel like it's a good indication (I don't have any proof for it apart for my own personal subjective empirical evidence). And unless you can provide me with solid evidence how the graph calculates luck I don't think that will change. Which doesn't mean you're wrong, it's very possible that I'm wrong, but that's just how I feel about the graph.
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On the whole I've been very unlucky. More than half my 103 wins came through the SimGive group/events, but even with those I'm still 25 gifts below average win rate. Without SimGive my win rate would be even worse.
(I don't enter many GAs like I used to.)
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-o.99...but i think ive been lukey, won some games i wanted so im good.I like giving more then getting anyway
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Almost been an active user for a year now and throughout that time I would consider myself to be fairly lucky here on Steamgifts. Won some decent games in my time and until this month my luck graph was pretty balanced. Some months up and some months down but all-in-all pretty even.
This month however my luck tanked (3 fewer gifts overall) and that got me to wondering what other peoples graphs looked like. Are there some super lucky/unlucky people out there?
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