I've been a member now for 8 years. I haven't won any giveaways in 4 years even though I have entered into 32,526 give aways.

In the past 4 years I have won nothing, zero, zip!

This leads me to believe that something is wrong with SteamGifts. Maybe because I haven't given away any games in a long while? The number of entries per give away hasnt really changed over the past 6 years, and it's supposed to be random draws.

Anyone else experienced this? I see some accounts with ridiculously high win rates without giving anything away. Something smells fishy!!

1 week ago

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Is Steamgifts rigged?

View Results
Yes
No
Maybe
Not sure
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1 week ago
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defo rigged! i watched for 5 minutes! always a 7!

1 week ago
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Gamblers gonna gamble and lose that's just how it is. This is years of experience talking.

Mind you you aren't losing anything but time and feelings on here.

1 week ago
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Well, 48 wins per 32,526 entries means ~678 giveaways per win. If average number of entries in giveaways you enter is about 600-700 (I didn't count, but sounds possible) - then it all fits just well. Of course, it's very rough estimate, but even so, I can't see anything suspicious.

1 week ago
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it took me ages before i got my 1st win here and i only made a few giveaway
mostly used steam companion to giveaway games. swapped over to this website full time when they shut that one down :(
liked the system of dumping all your points into one game vs the one entry system here

1 week ago
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Registered: 8 years ago

Giveaways Entered: 68,562 (after the new site update) and around 30-31k at the old website so in total ...99-100k
Gifts Won:107
Gifts Sent: 152

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1 week ago
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That's like asking if the lottery is rigged, since I've been playing for years and never won!

1 week ago
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Contrary to widespread opinion there's a legit - no autojoin scripts needed - way to win. I found an intuitive way to predict when the quantum wave function collapses by carefully inspecting chicken intestines and bam! a new game for me.

As a prerequisite you must have a deep understanding of quantum field theory to pull it off though.

1 week ago
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No, I don't think SteamGifts is rigged, but I DO think the formula they use for determining "luck" behind the scenes is wrong. For awhile, I picked giveaways to enter based primarily on chance-to-win. My luck was positive nearly every single month I did that, and sometimes VERY positive. I didn't like that I was accumulating a large library of games I'd almost certainly never had time to play, so I switched to entering giveaways for games that are very highly rated. Since doing so, my "luck" has been almost entirely negative, with a few months being slightly positive (0.26 or less).

The consistency of this pattern is too high to be a believable coincidence, so I'm pretty confident that they're making some math errors in calculating the monthly overall probability, and they're underestimating the chance to win unpopular giveaways, while overestimating the chance to win popular giveaways, resulting in a misleading graph on your Stats page.

That doesn't have anything to do with you losing all giveaways in the last 4 years, though. That's most likely a combination of poor luck and primarily entering popular giveaways with very low individual probabilities to win (even the least popular public giveaways have very low probabilities, but the most popular ones have near-zero chances to win, especially at the lower levels).

1 week ago
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I could be wrong, but it seems like these days fewer games are being given away and they have more entries. So more competition for limited giveaways.

1 week ago
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back when i started a giveaway was ending every 2-3 seconds. now i see 30 mins to an hour in between giveaways.

1 week ago
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I think a lot has to do since Humble bundle changed. You'd get 6 good games for $1 back then,

1 week ago
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You're not wrong - you can see the giveaways per month here: https://www.steamgifts.com/stats/community/giveaways

It peaked in 2017, and has been decreasing ever since. I also feel like I notice a LOT more crapware/shovelware games here than I used to (oh great, another $1 porn jigsaw puzzle game), so the number of games worth entering giveaways for is probably going down even more than that graph suggests!

1 week ago
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Registered
6 years ago
Giveaways Entered
89,095
Gifts Won
464 ($3,845.47)
Gifts Sent
177 ($2,009.25)

100% rigged.

1 week ago
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From what I've seen so far, people tend to win 1 giveaway in 1,000 entered. So your odds seem pretty good to me already, but you can also get better chances by joining groups or raising your contributor level.

But overall you've won more than you give, so that seems pretty rigged in your favor. :D

1 week ago
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I think it may be rigged in a way that the more you give the more you get. Notice how users with a lot of wins usually also gave away a lot of games? I feel like it's good to give away something from time to time to win more often. Who knows.

1 week ago
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lol.

1 week ago
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I said usually =)

1 week ago
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Hence the lol - wish it worked that way but it doesn’t.

I know exactly why I don’t win more games:

  1. I don’t belong to any groups.
  2. I don’t enter for games I don’t want (even if a game might be an awesome, whitelist-only giveaway). This means I enter less, and I miss out on winning all those shovelware/fake games also, to bulk up my win stats.
1 week ago
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Usually you can spot the origin of a member's luck easily. If there are a few hundred thousand giveaways entered on the profile there's an autojoin script hard at work.

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1 week ago*
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Umm, no. Let's talk about luck as giveaways entered in relation to giveaways won.
Let's leave bitterness and rule-breakers out of it.

1 week ago
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i beg to differ. i have 89k entered and have never used a script thank you

1 week ago
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I believe you. If you keep up the pace you'd still need another 12 years to hit 270,000.

1 week ago
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Life itself is rigged, what make you believe SG wasn't.

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1 week ago
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I don't think it's rigged but honestly sometimes i wondered how it was possible some extremely rare users (sometimes lvl 0-1 doesn't change anything) won 20 PUBLIC (not group/whitelist/private) giveaways within 6 months (it's a random number, it's just to give a rough idea), all with +700 entries, while they entered a very low number of giveaways.

I mean it's fair and great of course, but it's just that I don't understand how it's possible in terms of probabilities because it seems much more difficult to win repeatedly 20x (1/700 entries) within 6 months range than 1x national lottery. But please don't hesitate to explain because i always sucked at maths.

(Notice however that it's funny because this morning i went to kiosk, and just before me came a random woman with a dozen lottery tickets from/for her friend, and i've been very impressed because 10/12 were winning tickets 5 to 200€ every ticket, crazy probability no ? The kiosk guy said "oh first time i see something like that") -> conclusion : reality is rigged please i want a refund for reality


edit :

Oh i just remembered in the opposite there was a story about a guy who got i no more how many (but it was a lot) accidents in his life, including plane accident and survived all.

This sort of reverse situation is crazy too in term of probability !

edit 2 :

I just remembered this another incredible story too !! Maybe you already knew it ?

https://www.irishcentral.com/roots/history/violet-jessop-disasters

1 week ago*
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You forgot Tsutomu Yamaguchi the man who survived two nuclear bombs.

1 week ago
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Depends on your odds. Entering small giveaways with 30 entries is going to give you higher odds than joining 2000+ entry giveaways all day every day

1 week ago
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What, no potato poll option? :V

1 week ago
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True randomness might not exist whenever code is involved that's being executed on logic processors. It's, theoretically speaking, pseudo-randomness that's likely deterministic and as such might be gamed to increase your odds. I.e. for example higher odds if you're one of the first or last to enter.

1 week ago
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That's a questions I have on my mind for quite some time actually. I suppose they're using some pseudo-RNG while I'd prefer a true RNG like Random.org offers. It's just nitpicking in the end I suppose.

1 week ago
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Who knows

1 week ago
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I grabbed your wins for myself.
With my magical hands!

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1 week ago
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I dunno,maybe,although I'm Inclined to believe that SG isn't rigged.Its just the bots that mess up GAs.
Try to go for Invite-only,private or Whitelist GAs,you'll have a higher chance there cuz of less bots and less entries.

1 week ago
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Deleted

This comment was deleted 1 week ago.

1 week ago
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You need to bribe the cosmic feline with the special astral foods for a 5% extra chance of winning a game during starry Saturday nights.

1 week ago
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If you lick a frog I hear your luck will increase.

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1 week ago
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Disclaimer: Don't do this stupid shit, it doesn't work. 20 frogs in and my luck still sucks.

1 week ago
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But what you point at are toads, then you atleast have had 20 trips, or with a frog 20 princes. :p

1 week ago
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5 days ago
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Of course it's rigged! ;)

1 week ago
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I've only been here for two months and I've won every giveaway ever created.

1 week ago
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