Stats/Odds question

You enter giveaways all the time, right? Each of them run for a different amount of time.
The statistic looks at your list of entered giveaways. Then for, let's say, it check which one of those ended on April 2nd. For an example, you entered 20 giveaways that ended between 0:00 and 23:59 of April 2nd.
Then, it checks individually how many people entered those giveaways. Let's say all of them had exactly 100 people entering for the game.
So, it calculates that you had 1% chance to win one of the giveaways. Then it adds the chance to win the second giveaway, and the third, and so on. So altogether you had 20×1=20% chance to win at least one of those giveaways on that exact date.

Same goes for long-term predictions. The site checks which giveaways will end on a certain future date, let's say tomorrow, and checks the current number of entries in them. So if you entered for 10 giveaways that will end tomorrow with currently exactly 100 people in them as well, the site predicts you have 10×1% chance to win something tomorrow.

9 years ago

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kretonbadge

I get that part I think. That is the grey dot.

I don't get what is different about the blue dot. Chances of winning is the chances of winning. For instance I have a 34% chance (blue) and a 41% chance (grey) today. What confuses me is how there could be 2 difference chances. The guy above said historical (which doesn't make sense that there even could be historical data).

9 years ago

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talgaby

Blue part are the giveaways that already ended today, grey is the ones that are still running but will end later today. The calculation for them is the same.

9 years ago

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Meetrock

Hostrical means percentage of winning determined by how many giveaways you entered and your chances in each entry.
For example if you entered one giveaway in the past 30 days and the giveaway had less than 100 entries. Then your blue dot will say something like %1 winning

That's how I understand it, might be wrong though.

9 years ago

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Bazilus

blue - finished GAs with your entries, calculated win rates
grey - giveaways already entered, but not finished

9 years ago

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kretonbadge

If the GA's are finished it should be 0%, no?

9 years ago