Actually, I disagree with that. The estimate is the aggregate sum of the probability of each giveaway entered. Essentially ÎĢ[1/entries in GA]. On an individual level the estimate is meaningless, each GA (with a minimum of 1 entry) still has a 1/entries chance of a specific entrant winning, with a 100% chance of any entrant winning.
Personally, I'd be interested in seeing (total received gifts)/(total estimate). That number can be used to gauge the effectiveness of whatever RNG is being used to select the winner.
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For the first few I won along the lines of the estimate. around 1 I won my first and so on.
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Well I registered 8 months ago. It took me 6 months before I won a single thing, I was already "due" 3 wins according to the estimate. Then in two months time I got 7 wins and now I'm over the estimate.
It's random. Welcome to random.
Giveaways Entered: 3,207
Giveaways Won: 7
Estimated Wins: 4.88
Maybe it'll take another 6 months to get the next hit. Half of the fun is in the suspense.
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Or we reply to further troll the ones who don't. :P
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your lucky iv entered 1,019 and have an estimated wins of 2.10 and still have not won anything. im so sad. but feel free to give me stuff out of your own generosity :D
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Thanks for Fortix.
Also: Winning a game on steamgifts is like winning the lottery. You never really expect to win when you buy the ticket, but deep inside you are hoping, and if it comes true? Hurray!
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Keep an eye on Bundle websites, most of the giveaways are game packs from there, bought with 1$. I never exchanged anything here, I'm just for the news and forum discussions.
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Why do I never seem to win at all? Even my . estimated win is more than 1 so shouldn't I win something already? Is this site a scam?
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