The higher the level, the less public GA for this level but quality of games are better.
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This even simplier to explain - just enter a lot. Every hour check SG, enter in GA with 200-400 entries (any GA), wake up at night when your pionts was restocked. This was my formula when I sat at work like 8 hour per day plus at home 4-5 hours. I also have some problems with my sleep and get up at 5.30 AM. So yes, I managed to win 1 game per day in like week or two. But it was in the begining my SG life...
Now I enter only wishlisted games. I still win a lot but only because entered in few nice groups and heve decent level.
Or some people just use bots.
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4 is usually where I put my public non-bundle giveaways. Another thing to consider is that the more games you own the more giveaways you become ineligible for (because of owning the game) resulting in a perceived vacuum. If you log out and check, often times you'll see that there are a bunch of high level things you could enter... if you didn't own them.
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It changes everything. Not only are people at higher levels are more active and more charitable (and in most cases more deserving), but more importantly they mark the games as received quickly and reliably. luller's advice is very good advice.
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I don't believe that: for example (he won a second reroll of a gift but hasn't claimed it yet...) http://www.steamgifts.com/user/obihoernchen/giveaways/won
and this is just an example
That's not what I call the exact same chances, in probabilistic this is not credible, people should have varying ratios but that only vary in a certain degree. Either you are recent and made a good number of GAs and start winning a fair number, or there are those high level accounts who made countless GAs and won countless GAs, in both case this is accurate.
Then there are those who were clever to join private or whitelists, they won a good number of GAs and gave some or few. But then there are those profile that created NO or almost no GAs and have won lots and lots of publics GAs: something is off.
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You are looking at the math from the wrong side. You enter some giveaways and have normal luck. People like that guy have bots which enter every single giveaway they can/ Every single one. It isn't a stretch to say this guy probably entered at least a hundred times as many GAs as you did, and by the sheer law of large numbers his chance to win 100 of them becomes pretty big.
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You are wrongly sure, you are the only one making assumptions about "trust issues" without actually addressing the factual issues that motivated this topic, that is, I'm not talking about MY ratio specifically, but the fact that some of my GAs were won by people using automated scripts and then not claiming it because they had it or weren't interested, while other people using SG the regular way (which is for me "give some, win some, augment your levels, augment your odds" or private/whitelists groups) who would want the game didn't. I'm not talking about the system, I'm talking about people cheating this system making it less fair for everybody.
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Very rough estimates here:
Average public level 0 games have ~1000 entries. Every 24 hours you get at least 500 points, which can be used to enter 25-50 giveaways at 10-20 points each. This requires moderate site activity. Your average odds of winning then roughly translates to one win every 10-20 days. In one year that is 30-70 games. Not very hard to find a few users that go beyond that because of statistical differences.
Also, if you include forum giveaways, those tend to have at most 300-400 entries for level 0, which means their chances are efficiently tripled. Assuming an user could enter pure forum giveaways for level 0, they would then win 100-200 games in a year, on average. Since a normal user would combine forum and public giveaways, this is entirely possible within statistical boundaries.
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Definetely more than 500 every 24hours. About 300 every 8 hours - would be around 900 a day.
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And also if you look at people like that most of the games are more about quantity then quality of the wins are games a lot of people do not want or are just cannon fodder for bundles.
I reckon if i was to enter a lot more of those types my wins would be out of control but filled with junk wins i really would not want.I only enter for games i want and games i will play.And a few of my wins came from white list or invite or low entries.
All i am saying is if you enter that many GA you will win a lot how many who knows...
I have entered 8,970 and only won 26 times,if you was to think i would win at the same rate,then by the time i hit close to his count i would win more then he did with the same amount of entries.
Though i doubt that will happen,given a few of my wins came from invite/white/group without those i would have only 19 wins,and even then with what is left most are leveled wins. 7 are from public no level.
I am just saying most of my wins have come from leveled GA, and if i only won public no level GA i would have only 7 wins out of the 8,970 so at that current rate i would not have the wins he did when i reach his #'s
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There are no scripts to augment your odds.
You can use a script to enter giveaways while you are not at the computer, but once you are in the giveaway once it ends, if there are 1000 people that entered for that giveaway, you have 1 in 1000 chance of winning. Just like everyone else in the giveaway.
If only 10 people enter total and you are one of them you have a 1 in 10 chance of winning. Save with all the other people even if all of them used a script to enter the giveaway.
As for stuff not being claimed, generally if its a developer giveaway and you just won the same game from someone else and already put the code in, most developers don't do rerolls. Not sure why, maybe just too busy to go though all of them.
If its just an average user they have to wait 7 days before asking for a reroll but if the code has already been exposed rerolling can be bad because if the person already used the key on their own account or someone elses the giveaway maker would have to give a new key to the new person and if they can't afford it, they get a blackmark.
Also the person you are talking about might have already been banned for doing what they did. It would be nice if there was a little mark or something telling people the person has already been punished for it, but there isn't.
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That part i can understand but it not just people who use scripts that do that,so they are not the only cause of this issue or problem,i have seen higher levels do it and so forth.
Also they do not augment there odds,they are not doing anything that anyone else can not do if they so choose they still have the same odds of winning as everyone else who joins that GA.
I have no issue how someone uses this site to enter GA,as long as it is allowed any anyone can do it,if you chose not to do it then that is your choice.
If they want to win a bunch of low bundle cannon fodder games just so they feel special about winning bad bundle games then more power to them.I will continue to win games i want and be happy about giving and winning.
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Unfortunately, it's quite possible, especially if the script/bot runs at off hours, when there are very few users online, and enters giveaways with little time left (most entries for public giveaways come right after creation or near the ending time) or flash giveaways. It's not uncommon for a public giveaway of even a high popularity game to only get a couple hundred entries in an hour.
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not really. On a slow day you will earn 500P per 24h, then once a week you will have some good promo taht will boost point regeneration to 800+P and once a month or two you will have some extremelly good bundle that can make crazy point regeneration - like 100P per 2 hours or so. Now if you log in only once or twice a day you will most likely miss out on these as well as you will often hit 300P cap. Let's say on average you will be spending 300P per day loging in once and using all your points. Now this bot will run all the time, so he will catch up with all big regenerations and so on and on average he will be spending 700P per day. Let's go further - you loging just once a day will join a lot of longer GAs because you won't see 90% of short GAs that many users miss same as you. Boit will notice them all and each of them will have 1/4 of users of normal length GA. Now let's perform an easy mathemathical model - ler's say 20% of GAs on SG are flash GAs, let's say all lvl0 GAs have the same number of 2000 entries with flash GAs having 500 entries. Let's assume that average point cost of GA is 10P. Bot will be spending 700P per day, 10% on Flash GAs, so 14 GAs of 500 entries and 56 GAs of 2000 Entries. You will be entering 0,6 Flash Ga per day and 29,4 2000 Entries one per day. After a year Bot will Enter 5110 flash GAs statistically winning 10,2 of them and 20440 normal GAs winning also 10.22 of them. That gives total of 20.5GAs won. In the same time you only 21 Flash GAs probably losing them all and only entering 10731 Normal GAs statistically winning 5.37 GA.
Of course it's a very simple hypothethical model, it does not consider things like private GAs, DLCs you are able to enter if owning a game or different times - flash GAs in the middle of night will have much less entries than ones in mid of a day or in the evening. But it already shows that such a script will not need YEARS like you suggested to make a massive impact on chances basically giving him 400% better ods than what you have.
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Not really. Lots of games, even lvl0's, will still hit the <500 mark (especially during peek bundle times). So having a bot do it really helps those odds around. Combine that to 1000+pts a day ( WAY more than that on some days, like the other day when the Humble Monthly came out)..
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They are also entering anything and every one they can,regardless if they want it or not or intend to play it or whatever,they just want to win and could care less how.
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Odds may be higher to win by entering more but it still does not prove the out come will be in your favor.
The same was winning the lotto even if the odds of winning are 1 in 5 and you buy 30 tickets,does not mean you will win.
But the odds are you will get something.It just better to play odds that favor you for the best chance,but still someone could come along and buy one lotto ticket and win the big prize while you bought 30 and did not win a damn thing.Despite having higher odds of winning.
So while odds can help,odds still prove nothing in the out come other then you have a better chance of winning but still no sure thing unless you have 100% chance.
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Part of it is just how many entries people toss out; while you're participated in more than a 1000 GA's, it's possible that those people have participated in tens of thousands if not more giveaways and unfortunately feel no compulsion to give back to the community. Some people swing those terrible ratios using groups (over half my wins are from a single group!) but on the other hand others just lurk forever and enter any low hanging fruit (low entries and about to end) or just spam every giveaway they can for the best odds. It's that the people who are most likely to win public giveaways are people who spam entries, not people who enter judiciously; I, for example, only enter public giveaways for things on my wishlist or games I really want, which is probably only about 1-2% of public giveaways at most (if even, given all the bundle giveaways I can't see because of owning the games) which means that the people who spam entries have a surprisingly good chance of winning lots of public giveaways.
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because it seems that it's almost impossible to regularly win a GAYou are wrong - it's very possible - I win GAs almost every single day. The "trick" is your activity - if you stick to public low level GAs your chances will be relatively small. In each of your GAs you will have hundreds to thousands of entrants, why for me most of my wins come from GAs with less than 100 participants. So just be active - the more you are on SG the better odds for joining flasgh GAs, the more time you spend on forums the more trains, puzzles and other events you find. The more you give the more likely you are to find a decent group (but again - you need to show some activity towards finding it in the first place), the more you participate in community life the more people will whitelist you and so on and on. And each of these things dramatically increseas your chances and Win numbers.
As for levels - on level 4 you still don't have the greatest odds - look at the table here: http://www.steamgifts.com/discussion/XaCbA/list-of-all-cv-levels-and-their-corresponding-real-cv, as numbers are from Jan we can easilly assume that now there's way over 10k lvl3 users, so all public GAs you have access to besides lvl 4 ones are accessible to tens of thousands other users - it's not giving you big chances ;) I personally almost never even enter public GAs below lvl 5-6 ;p And really big rise in your chances happens only on really high levels like 7+ ;)
So yeah, TL;DR you call a pretty strong judgement while not having nearly enough data, interpreting it wrong and not using even the simple math to it ;)
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Keep in mind that many of the people winning a large number of giveaways enter to win anything and everything. In looking at the specific person you mentioned above, yes, they have a lot of wins, but there are almost no games they've won that I'd personally be interested in playing / owning and don't already have. If you want to avoid those people with few or no giveaways made, make the level requirement for your giveaways higher (which I see you've started doing). You'll still get winners with a lot more wins than games given, but it means they at least do give on occasion.
I only enter giveaways for games I'd want to eventually play, which often means giveaways with a lot of entries. As a result, it took me until past 2,500 entries to win my first giveaway, and as you can see, my given / won ratio isn't likely to ever balance in my favor. As long as I have a chance to win something I'd actually want once in a while though, I really don't mind. Hopefully at least some of the people winning the games I give away are playing and enjoying them, which is really the point of the site.
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As an Actuary (someone who does statistics for a living and is called weird for enjoying it) all of the math on this site is legit. Everyone has the same chances in each giveaway as another person who entered. There are no unfair advantages within a giveaway. The only advatanges come from comparing across levels, groups, and whitelists. I know people at my level who have a give/win ratio of 5 and others who have .5. There is nothing you can do about these differences.
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I'm really sorry for you mate, I'm lvl 4 as well, but I won and win more GAs than you, maybe you enter GAs with too many people? Do you join private giveaways with lvl? I join them and win some gifts there. Puzzles are a great way for better odds as well.
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Thanks mate. That's what I do now, I only entered games I'm really interested in, or games with very low participation.
I'm looking into private giveaways (would you know were to find them?) or puzzles, although unfortunately I do not have much time to manage it.
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Nonsense there are other ways (free games, tremorgames) etc, i don't have a job and look at my profile and how many games i have (spend not more then $50 on it) and given away here, difference? i invest my time in return.
Beside you want low chances, you can forget about lt if you enter for AAA games because they will have alot of entries (unless you invest YOUR time in finding puzzles, private giveaways etc), you can get a whole lot of bundled games for just $2 - $10. That's not $60 or $30, those are AAA games but we all would want to win those.
It does seem to be about your wins too else you would not mention it, and you can just set restriction on it.
There will always be people trying to trick the system, it's not just here, one can deal with it or stop giving stuff away.
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If you enter a lot of GA your chances of winning are better.
If you enter GA with not many participants you have a better chance of winning.
Someone's level or amount of GAs created has nothing to do with it.
If you feel cheated after a month your expectations are wrong.
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You feel cheated because other people have won a lot more?
Because they haven't made GAs or none at all.
Making a GA is not a prerequisite for entering GAs.
GAs can be restricted to certain levels. But there still are thousands of GAs for level 0 people.
So, where's the problem?
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I feel cheated because I'd like people who enter my GAs to have fair odds of winning, which I have noticed by looking at winner profile, especially for GAs that were stuck because they weren't claimed, that some of them use scripts, win lots of games without giving, an didn't even take the same because they already had them or weren't interested in the first place.
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Everybody entering your GA has the same chance of winning. Wether they used a bot or not.
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You also have only been here a month or two. Statistically speaking, winning one game already is pretty good. Many folks (myself included) went several months before winning anything. We are all at the mercy of the RNG gods. It is perfectly mathmatically fair to win every single giveaway you enter, or to never win one at all.
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I agree...if it was the case, I'm not even talking about MY wins, but people who win my GAs: I notice there was something wrong by looking at profile of those who won, and discovered that their ratio didn't depend of levels, GAs or even private/whitelist.
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Everything is based off of large numbers mate. If you take just a few observations then of course they won't follow the distribution of the RNG. You have given 70 ish games. The winners of just 70 GAs do not show the true ration of games given to games won
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just keep entering and don't expect to win. if you get involved in the forums and events you will have a better chance at getting whitelisted or invited to a group. or you could also apply for a group and see if they like you.
scripted bot which multiply the odds of winning random games.
no, please. that's the lowest way to win stuff here... i even have more respect for leeches with ratios like 0-sent:100-won than someone using a script to autojoin giveaways.
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But that's the thing, unless you've been here for 4 years and active 24h/w you can't have won 100 with 0 sent without autobots. What I'm saying is that these scripts are not fair, especially since you might be winning games that you have or don't claim (which happened to me on my GAs, once GA is ruined because 3 times there's been a reroll of people who won and didn't responded or claimed it, given their ratios I know now that they had scripts). Isn't there a way to detect these?
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you can detect them once you see them replying 10 times in a row without even a second between posts.
but sg doesn't condemn the use of bots, probably because it's hard to find proof that someone does it.
if you get too annoyed or frustrated with bots, just increase the level requirement. you will get less of them because there's less people on higher levels (and i also hope less users have bots to autojoin...).
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You don't know or have proof they are using bots, you assume it.
Otherwise, raise level required or use sgtools with specific rquirements.
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You've only been here a month, so with all due respect, there's nothing to complain about here.
I only won something a whole 3 months or so after my first GA. I started joining groups, discussions, and private GAs, which have better odds than public GAs. But I've also won a few public GAs.
Waiting for a win sort of defeats the purpose of the SG community, of which there seem to be a lot of leechers. Don't add to that stat yourself
By the looks of it, you're doing well in terms of giving, your wins will come as your progress.
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There's no give some win some rule, odds don't depend on how much you have given, and automated scripts don't improve your odds.
Using a script makes it easier to enter more giveaways; but you could just as well check the site every 60 minutes and manually enter every giveaway. The odds for winning any given giveaway is the same whether you enter manually or by script, and whether you have given 100 games or none.
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Personally, those scripts are useless to me.
Yes you enter more GAs, but the odds are the same, and also the games are $1, bundled titles.
The higher your level, the better chances of winning higher level GAs (fewer entries), and better your chances of joining groups with limited, valued members, and better GAs.
Don't limit yourself to public GAs.
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I can sympathise with you to a certain extent. If I was here exclusively for winning games, I'd be frustrated too. The thing is, though, I'm not really here for the wins. Don't get me wrong, I'll enter trains and enter everything in my wishlist in the public giveaways, but that's not really my reason for being here.
At this stage in my life, I'm in the fortunate position to be able to buy a few things extra every month. I can buy games to add to my existing and growing steam library, but more and more I start looking for games to give away. Yes, I've given away bundle keys, but I've also done quite a few unbundled giveaways. To be honest, the interaction and the excitement I can sense from some of the entrants makes it all worthwhile for me. Couple of tips: do private giveaways and be very clear in your instructions. I had a few public giveaways and I didn't really have great experiences there. Also use level caps. I feel that at least level 1 with a simple SGtools check for most GAs is fair. It gives most users a chance to win, and you have a much greater chance of actually having a person enter your giveaways.
Hang in there. My first month's experience was similar to yours. I needed to find my reasons for being here. You need to find yours.
I think someone once said something like this, "I came for the gibs and I stayed for Rachellove's bundle threads." Or I might have been on heavy pain medication. Either way, amen to that.
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I'm not here for wins either. I'm here to give away some (or lots), but I expect people participating in GAs, whether my own or others for me, to have the same odds of winning. turns out some people are using scripts...but well. I guess eventually I will come to join and use more groups and whitelist or even puzzles, and not have to complain about public GA bots.
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That is not what I said, I question wether I was missing something, now I know that people are using scripts thus entering lots of GAs and statistically winning more even if they're not interested, thus taking away the opportunity from someone else not using scripts to win at the same odd. Happened to me.
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They win statistically more often because they join for giveaways with best chance, not the ones they really want. They have the same chance to win a single giveaway as every other entree, but generally they win more often. (If you join giveaways with 1/800 chance and I join with 1/200 chance, from same number of entries I'll won on average 4 times more often than you)
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toadd to what adam said - also they are more effective at spending all of their poijts. If you're not bvery active visiting SG few times a day just visiting let's say once a day or two days - you will often hit 300P cap - all points above 300 will be lost. It's not saying that anyone who doesn't hit 300P because they spend everything is a bot - there are also active users who spend a lot of time on SG (like me ;p) - but compared to users who are less active and visit once a day or once a two days - these users will enter way more so also win way more. If low-activity user joins once every 24h on normal day of 500P being regenerated - he will be able to spend 300P compared to 500P spent by bot/active user, it is 60% more enties aka 60% more wins on avg . If this day some good bundle is released it may be case of 300P vs 1200P making it 400% difference. If someone visit site every 2 days it's 300P vs 1000P spent without any good promos. If once a week it's 300P vs 3500+P and so on ;)
If we compare a bot/script with a very active user it does not make any difference (besides you missing flash GAs that happen in time you're at work/asleeep etc) , but if you compare medium or low activity user to a bot - the bot will be entering a lot more so statistically he will win a lot more.
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I do not use scripts at all. yet I am winning more then you... so that must mean I'm cheating somehow right? I don't.
Log in here now and then, look around for some giveaways, enter a whole bunch of public ones but also a few private ones that I find in the discussion area, or ones that have been setup for specific groups (some of which are pubic to enter some are private) and special ones that allow people who are whitelisted by the giveaway maker to enter.
I lose most of the giveaway I enter. Going by my stats, I win around 0.0045% of the giveaways I enter. I've had many months long losing streaks. I've had some winning streaks were I won 2 or 3 in one day, a few others where I won one a day.
In the end, this is a FREE site where you can win FREE stuff with out ever actually giving anything. If you want to give stuff out, great, if you don't, ok fine.
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:D:
But I doubt it will be bundled (unless there's something I don't know about) - the recent Sale on Nuuvem had it for 7 BRL, which is 1.85 USD (it would have to be below 1 USD to hit bundle list), and adding Russian Steam price to 80% biggest Steam discount makes it 94,418% sale, so less than 95% so unlikely to get bundled ;p
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And what about this? ^^
https://www.bundlestars.com/en/game/sniper-ghost-warrior-trilogy
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You're right, it's not a bundle but when a game gets a huge ~95% discount, like zelgh's mentioned here http://www.steamgifts.com/go/comment/iVXPubI (for some reason I thought 90% is enough, should've read his response more thoroughly :P) it will be considered bundled.
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I gonna say what I always say seeing a thread like this... Welcome to Steamgifts! That's how it is 99% of the time.
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I totally understand your point, but that's just the way this system works. If you want to exclude leechers from your giveaways, make your giveaways level 3-4 or higher. If you want to win lots of games, try to join some good groups.
Most of both my won and created giveaways are in private groups with a couple hundred members. You also need to visit the site OFTEN and make sure you jump on short giveaways and join the forum post trains (or other invite only giveaways).
Just like with everything else in life: if you want results, you have to work for it.
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So, in a nutshell ...
You feel the site is unfair because you're not winning enough? O.o
The math is right -- if you've entered ~1000 public giveaways, then you should only have 1-2 wins (unless you're extremely lucky). You have the exact same chance as anyone else to win any giveaway you've entered.
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So I've been registered for sometimes, explored the sites, guidelines & rules, and I liked the idea of Steamgift: "you give some, you win some". It was a better way to share my extra-keys than reddit or forums trades, and I thought it was fair.
But I'm almost level 5, made more than 70 GAs (800$ CV) and participated in more than a 1000s of GAs, and so far, only won one small indie game (Dracula). Not great odds, but okay that's not the real problem:
The problem is that amongst the people who won my GAs (some of which never mark the prize as received and are blocking your GA slots for weeks or more, and there's nothing you can do because of support delays, then who knows if the key is still valid or not), there are people who won a lot of GAs with not many they initiated, or even sometimes hundreds of GAs while they didn't made one single of them.
So I know the main guidelines and FAQ are not the "it" because it seems that it's almost impossible to regularly win a GA and the odds are way too unfair, but all these people winning lots of GA while they don't make many or much, who are sometimes registered into private, whitelist but sometimes not even and just win hundreds of public GAs while they didn't make one, I think I'm missing the bigger picture or some secrets or some arrangements.
I feel deceived and cheated.
Specifically, I can understand that some people are more clever and enter private or whitelist GAs without sharing much which I'm starting to understand the mechanics of, but I don't understand why many users, in fact specifically those who regularly win my public GAs and probably others, are people who happen to have unnatural ratios of 100s GAs wons for a few or none created?
Edit: so the answer, turns out, is about groups and whitelist (which I haven't joined yet, I think), and then scripted bot which multiply the odds of winning random games.
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