If I roll two dice at the same time there is a 1 in 36 chance to roll 2 sixes. If I roll just one of the dice and it comes up 6 what is the chance that when I roll the next dice it comes up six?
I know the answer, i play with lambda calculus, set and game theory for fun lol, But given all the questions saying I have entered x and not won yet I wondered how many people actually do as it implies they have no idea about basic probability.
And looking at the results so far 8% have no idea
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The problem is that even the people who understand probability when abstracted like this fail to grasp it when it is presented in a natural context and/or there are many implicit assumptions.
For instance. How many times do you have to roll a dice to guarantee that you get at least one 6? Analogous to the question of how many GAs does it take to get your first win, assuming only 6 people enter.
Trick question: You can never guarantee it, at least not in an absolute sense of 100% guaranteed. Precisely because each GA/dice roll is independent.
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can't answer your poll, need more info: Did you say 'thanks' before or after you rolled the dice? :P
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Not enough information. It all depends on the dice: the number of sides on each dice and how they're numbered. For example if the first die has 36 sides numbered 1-36 and the second is a cube with 6s on all sides the odds of rolling a second 6 is 100% in the inverse case it would ~2.77%
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Given all the questions about chances of winning I thought I would run a quick poll to see how many people have a real grasp on basic probability :)
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