Uh, really have no idea how to do that in excel. Anyone care to help since formulas were never my strong suit?
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I really have no idea how to do that in Excel.
But if anyone is willing to help here are my stats:
Giveaways Entered 4,103
Gifts Won 16
Estimated Wins 18.18
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seriously, anybody else read it as "how big is your D?
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seriously, anybody else read it as "how big is your D?
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Yep, I am that guy that is worried about the size of everybody's p's. ;) ;) ;)
Here is how it works. Go to your profile and find:
N=Entered Giveaways
w=Giveaway Wins
s=Estimated Wins
s/N = probability of winning EACH giveaway (assuming that all have the same number of entries)
Now go into Excel and calculate p=BINOM.DIST(w,N,s/N,1) -- watch the order. That is the probability you win w or less times (well, if all your giveaways had the same number of entries, which is the best we can do with these numbers). So, the smaller the p, the unluckier you are.
So, for example, from other threads:
c00lizz (5244,107,123.52) means p=6.991% (unlucky!)
kumori (4104,2,8.67) means p=0.807%
TheFinalBing (3795,0,5.06) means p=0.632%
Kuroisama (4528,42,66.33) p=0.0866% (Unluckiest one?)
On the other side of the scale:
RainBoom (680,6,1.93) p=99.6% (Lucky bastard!)
Arpione (1552,36,21.76) p=99.83% (!!)
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