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Estimated Wins: 14.96
Actual Wins: 15
Difference: -0.04
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Shouldn't the luckiest/unluckiest be normalized relative to estimated number of wins? Someone that's expected to win 10 but only won 1 is unluckier than someone expected to win 1,000 that actually won 990. I propose the following:
Take ((estimated wins) - (actual wins)) / (estimated wins))
The issue with this is that everyone with 0 wins is then on equal footing. Not sure of the best way to handle that.
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Estimated Wins: 14.36
Wins: 5
Difference: 9.36
I've been pretty unlucky. Worst luck, I have been a part of a public giveaway that only had 2 entries, and I still lost.
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Estimated wins - 0.9
Giveaways entered 655
Difference is 0.9.
The sad thing is that 90% of the giveaways I enter, is for 1 game, called the ship. And I've entered over 500 of the ship giveaways. Still haven't gotten the ship...
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First off this is not a post for complaining so if you are here to say "I never win anything" try another post :)
The feature in the profile that tracks your estimated wins is intriguing to me and I am curious which Steamgifter out there is the "unluckiest" statistically. Your profile has estimated wins which is based on the chance you have of winning determined on the giveaways you typically enter. So if you entered 1000 giveaways that each had 1000 entries your estimated wins would be 1.00. If you enter more AAA giveaways with lots of entries it will take you a lot longer to get an estimated win while if you enter only group giveaways you should have more estimated wins.
To be the Unluckiest Steamgifter you must have gifted at least one game!
Post below your estimated wins minus your actual wins and the biggest positive difference between them is statistically the unluckiest member.
Anyone with a negative difference has beaten the odds and won more games than they are statistically predicted to have won.
I'll go first :)
EDIT: So far unluckiest is KuroiSama who statistically should have won 22.69 more games than actual - pretty unlucky :)
Luckiest so far is Jatan11t who has won 18.33 more games than estimated
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