to add to what talgaby said - blue is from GAs that already ended, thus it's certain, grey is from running GAs and is uncertain, because until GA ends more people can enter lowering your chance. Let's say you enter Ga with 0 entries - your probability to win will be 100% and as such it will be presented in grey.. But if 99 people join after you and b4 GA end, your chance to win this GA will drop to 1% only.
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In "Probability of Winning Per Day", what's the difference between the grey and blue probability curves? Particularly when they are both shown, for the same day, and display different percentages.
EDIT: Thanks for clarifying guys! :)
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