Happy Holidays

Many GAs are ending at this time: December 26, 2023, 1:59 am
so, question in title

4 months ago

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Does it affect your chances?

View Results
Yes
No
No clue
Maybe someone can explain it in clear, uncomplicated terms

nope. i think you're referring to the holiday event giveaways. the giveaways are set to end at that time because that's when the event ends.

4 months ago
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I noticed so many GAs ending at that time.

They're for Christmas or the holiday season in general, sure, but not related to a singular organized event if that's what you meant.

4 months ago
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all the giveaways in the holiday event end at the time you specified. or at least i'm guessing so since they end christmas night at 7pm for me (eastern usa), just a 7 hour difference from the time you gave. i assume you're somewhere in middle/eastern europe? i don't know all the time zones out there.
also, believe it or not, but entering more giveaways will actually increase your chances of winning a giveaway. entering more will never decrease your chances.

4 months ago
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Thanks for clarifying but that's exactly what I'm trying to tell you: A lot of GAs made outside the holiday event also end at this time. In any case, that doesn't answer my question in the title.

4 months ago
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4 months ago
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No.
Why would it?
They're independant of each other.

4 months ago
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As no one besides cg knows if the algorithm used for drawing winners is true or pseudo RNG all answers must be inconclusive.

4 months ago
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True and that's what I'm trying to demystify a bit.

4 months ago
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But we don't know that to begin with? None of us?

4 months ago
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I don't believe anyone here has read every single post and comment since SG's creation a decade ago till now, so it never hurts to ask.

4 months ago
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Have you considered getting SG+?

4 months ago
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SG+ is for yesterday's users. You need at least SG++ today.

Edit: I was under the impression that SG+ and similar did not work properly for years and many switched to ESGST.

4 months ago
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I object that notion!

4 months ago
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Have you? If yes, how's that working for ya?

4 months ago
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I did years ago. It worked fine.

4 months ago
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I don't use it and I'm very selective as to which GAs I enter.
From the stats page: 92 GAs entered in November; 18 this month.

Isn't this an addon with some QoL features? If yes, I don't see how that answers my question in the title.

4 months ago
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It's a mystery. It also might be a christmas miracle. Although I doubt that.

4 months ago
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You sound drunk but okay.

4 months ago
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There is the event + Jingle Jam keys also expire at the end of the month/start of year. I imagine a lot of the giveaways right now are based on those factors.

4 months ago
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Pure statistical answer: no
Pseudo-random computerish answer: you can't know (depends on the implementation), high likelihood of no

If you want to know more, google around "statistical probability" and "pseudo-randomness". If you're interested in math that is.

Edit: either way you cannot influence the outcome so don't worry and just enter for stuff you want to enter

4 months ago*
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Id say none of us have a way of knowing this for certain. Perhaps only CG knows the criteria used to determine winners .
But I dont think so, GAs here on SG seem very random, cant say the same for Discord GAs. I feel the popular bots have sort of a bias.

4 months ago
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Yes and no.
So basically. If you join 2 giveaways. For this example let's say giveaway A and giveaway B.
10 people join giveaway A, while only 2 people join giveaway B (including you). Therefore you have a 50/50 chance of winning giveaway B and a 1 in 10 chance of winning giveaway A.
So if you only join giveaway A, you have a smaller chance to win than joining only B. But joining both means that you have a about 55% chance to win at least one of them.

4 months ago
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I have been in this site for more than 10 years. I know a lot of Math (sorry, that sounded really presumptuous... but, well, for such purposes, I do). I have seen absolutely no evidence whatsoever that the GA's picks aren't uniformly random as advertised.

If I had to nitpick one side effect of joining 2 GAs ending at the exact same time -- if you enter for the same game, and you win 1 or both of them.... well, I have no idea how the site treats this... Possibilities:

  1. The site actually picks one winner at a time; if you win 1 of them, the site removes your entry for the second one...
    • ...and refunds your points accordingly?
    • ...and you lose your points spent on the 2nd one?
  2. The site picks all winners from those GAs, and then later filters out and eliminates double winners...
    • ...and you lose your points spend on the filtered GA?

I would be curious to find out which one it is!

Cheers!

I guess, from your point of view, there is always a chance I could be lying. Or, well, I could be wrong.... nah, impossible, I am never wrong. ;D

4 months ago*
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Every giveaway draw is a statistically independent event:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independence_(probability_theory)

Two events are independent if the occurrence of one does not affect the probability of occurrence of the other or, equivalently, does not affect the odds

(barring the fact that you can't win the same game multiple times, so once you win a game, you are automatically withdrawn from all other GAs of the same game)

4 months ago
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Closed 1 month ago by Volcanic.