Flat.
Although I don't really think any giveaway under 20 entries has a point; one could just gift the game directly if they want such a few people to be eligible in the first place.
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Often I don't think they want so few people to be eligible. Especially for puzzle makers it is sometimes hard to get the right difficulty and timing to get more entries.
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I prefer getting decently low amount of entries for puzzles. Makes the reward greater for actually solving it.
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I don't like puzzle giveaways getting a lot of solvers. It makes it less rewarding. What would be the point of making a puzzle that gets a lot of entries when you can just post the link and it would get the same amount of entries?
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Most of the time it's zero. 10% is the highest I got.
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I'm at 9% right now, and dropping. My powers are waning.
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Bit difficult to find giveaways for games you really want, with good chances to win them. But it is possible. ;)
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Only enetering for stuff I'd actually want to play be like:
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I don't enter GAs for games I don't want to play, so most of the time it's fairly low.
But then again, I did finish the food pyramid puzzle, and had a few spikes there.
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Wow, your font is HUGE!
Edit: I guess it's like that on a smartphone, d'uh. Nevermind me, I don't own one...
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The text size is pretty small for the rest of the site though. I noticed on mobile the some text is larger or smaller for no reason; this site isn't optimised for mobile at all...
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I win a game every 250 entries I make I~voI It makes at least one game a week and I'm joining only gibs for the wishlisted games. And that's more than enough for me. To wrap it up: backlog is huge enough to not solve any puzzles. :P
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2 100% days, a few lower ones, more with no entries.
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Mine looks... different.
Thought I spotted something... didn't work. Too stupid for your puzzles ; /
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I have to admit that I cheated: I asked my bf if he has a clue. He was like "Oh, why don't you try X?" and this was the solution. Really... one look at it, one assumption, just got it right. I need duller friends if I ever want to feel smart :<
I'm not entering, but thank you for this puzzle ; )
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Mine looks like bad shark teeth with less than 50% length..
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I really wonder why you have so few wins with winning chances like that o.O
Mine looks like this:
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Your final hint might have brought me there if I had remembered to check the thread again, but other than that - I'd have never thought about that, honestly. Good puzzle I assume :)
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I've really lucky days :) http://oi64.tinypic.com/34i653d.jpg
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my stats are awful-I only enter ones i really want to play
does the level have anything to do with winning %?
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Nope, there is no correlation. Otherwise people would complain even more about CV and everything else. So the winning chance is the same for everyone who enters the same giveaway.
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This is how my probability of winning graph tells me I'm not gonna win anything.
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The stats are so deceiving. I've gotten 100% chance of winning for a day and.. I didn't win anything.
Instead the giveaway ended with someone else being the winner, and I was left with crushed false hope and a stat that dropped to 68%.
Then it kept going down until 8%.
That was a bad day.
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That just sounds like you had 100% at the time, before more people joined that GA. Happens when you're the first to join a GA (or if multiple copies, among the X first where X is the amount of copies). That doesn't mean you're guaranteed to win it since more people may join between you checking the stats and the GA ending. :P
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Possibly! But I actually watched the GA up to until 45 minutes before it ended, and the number remained pretty stable. It did drop to 98% on the last refresh however, but that's about it. I don't know, maybe there were a lot of people joining in that last hour (although I don't really think so since the giveaways ending that day were just private/invite-only giveaways), or maybe it was just unlucky :/
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How many entries was in the GA vs how many copies?
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I don't really recall which one it was, but it should be around 50.. I think? One copy if I recall correctly.
It wasn't very promising to begin with, but I guess the statistics gave me hope :/
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Then it should have been 2%, perhaps you didn't think about other GAs.
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If I remember right the statistic page just sums the winning percentages of different giveaways. So if you have entered two giveaways with two entries each it will give you a value of 100 % instead of the correct 75 %. But I'm not absolutely sure about this. You would need someone who enters lots of low entries giveaways on a single day.
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Mmm, that could make sense, odd way for the statistics to work though.
I haven't got many opportunities to join low entries giveaways so I have no idea :/ Really wish I knew how the Statistics page worked though, it seems really interesting.
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Like I said I'm not completely sure about this. I would need reliable data for this. I tried with my giveaways from the 6th June with several giveaways ending with entries ranging from 40-50. Adding the percentages gave me a value about 11 % while Steamgifts told me it is 10 % percent. Haven't tried to determine the correct value yet.
But I'mm not sure if the graph about the winning percentages takes different timezones into consideration. It might be he works with American Timezone while the ending dates on the giveaway page work with the European Timezone. The reason for this suspicion is that I have days where I entered giveaways with less than 100 entries yet the graph shows a value of 0 %. So yea, without reliable data this doesn't lead to anything. So who is willing to sacrifice two or three giveaway slots for some statistics experiments? ^^
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I get around 3-5% when I don't manage to solve a good puzzle, and around 10-25 otherwise. Though I suspect that the chart simply adds probabilities of individual GAs, which makes it more or less useless…
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It's much more advanced than that and very accurate. It's still just probability, so you may be unlucky and not win anything with 99% win probability for 3 days. :)
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Hm, I need to take a closer look then. To me it seemed like just a sum, so I didn't get my hopes up even when the chart was fairly high :) I guess I like pleasant surprises :D
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Aaand solved, thanks for the hints, often I get paralyzed with non-obvious puzzles :)
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I reached 72% on June 4, 91% on June 5 and 63% on June 6. Those were my only probabilities higher than 50% for the past 30 days. Today's probability is 16%.
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Isn't it funny how you can see when hard puzzles end just by looking at your winning probability stats? Or when there's been a huge GA with 100% chance of winning, like the 50K one that happened May 22nd with the 30 Impossible Levels. You can really see on my stats that I'm mostly entering low entry GAs, because that makes my chance of winning so much higher. I think I'm over 50% chance of winning more often than not, but sometimes I'm below 50% chance.
What are your win chance probabilities like?
Obvious Hint: This is a puzzle.
Less Obvious Hint: The person who took this screenshot must have been from the future, the blue graph stretches on further than today's date!
Sneaky Hint: Last sentence of the first paragraph tells you the important stuff.
Truthful Hint: This is my actual graph. Totally not as impressive as the puzzle one. Also, no relevance between my graph and the puzzle, so don't compare them. :)
Penultimate Hint: 40 dots for 5 symbols.
La Grande Finale hint: Steamgifts really is a black and white sort of place. Either you win or you don't. It's almost binary in that way. Kind of like being over 50% and below 50% win chance.
Solution: The dots in the blue part of the graph represent binary numbers. Above 50% = 1, Below 50% = 0. Binary to Ascii translation reveals the GA-code.
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