Statistically Lucky People?

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I've been looking around at quite a few people's Gifts Won to Estimated Win's ratios (A sample size of around 25 forum users) and nearly all of them is right around 1, or their actual wins is right about where it should be or even a bit lower.

Looking at my ratio, I have 9 wins compared to my 5.29 estimated wins - that's nearly a ratio of two, or one more win and I would have doubled my estimated wins.

None of mine were group or private giveaways with a large chance to win, nor have i ever won a developer giveaway with like 10,000 copies or something. And of course, I haven't cheated or anything.

I was just seeing how many other people are just getting lucky and have a Gift's Won to Estimated Wins ratio of nearly 2 or more. Except if you have won like 3 games and your estimated wins is 1.5, that's hardly anything.

I always see people talking about how they don't win enough or how they are way past due for a win. There are even plenty of groups for these unlucky ones. But I guess I have never felt their pain because I am doing pretty well off haha, so...

Any super lucky people out there?

12 years ago*

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62 Comments

ladynadiad

12 wins, 6.22 estimated.

12 years ago

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scurvebeard

The law of averages will catch up to everyone, eventually :)

12 years ago

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Cacuu

well, the law of averages didn't catch me yet, and hopefully never will
estimated 10.06, won 23, sure, some are dev and group, but still that's more than double.

12 years ago

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Solnaga

Honestly higher win rate giveaways such as debs bring your ratio closer to average and thus down for you. i.e.- 18/8 is better than 20/10 with 2 dev GAs. Just means your luck is even more ridiculous.

12 years ago

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Alteria

Won: 72

Estimated Wins: 68.65

12 years ago

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metoxys

24/26.76 :<

12 years ago

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AgeOfArmageddon

Until this week I was almost 9 behind haha! Now at 17 wins, ~23 est :)

12 years ago

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copsofhalo

48/49.55 I'd rather give anyways. If I want it that bad..I just buy it. Care Bear ♥

12 years ago

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lozzly

3/5.18
1 win per 2-3 weeks. not bad

12 years ago

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flarnot

estimated 6.5 won 1...

12 years ago

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AtomicWoodchuck

Congrats on beating the stats!

It doesn't matter whether you enter giveaways with a small or large number of people though. This has no effect on your general "luckiness" in terms of actual vs estimated wins, since your estimated wins are directly proportionate to the number of entrants (as is your chance of actually winning, obviously).

Anyway, I consider myself incredibly lucky, both in the number and quality of games won (and also very grateful!)

12 years ago

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DaSinist

12 years ago

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AtomicWoodchuck

You have a question, Mark?

12 years ago

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