Like say if I wanted medal of Honer, and I entered all of the giveaways. Then having points left over I enter to win something like halflife or portal... Does this hurt my chance of winning Medal of Honer? How does the math behind this work out?

10 years ago*

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I... Don't think I get the question.

10 years ago
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how does the probability work? Anyone take stats, while each entry is independent, and by entering more I raise my chances of winning, if I win something i don't really want, does this hurt my chances of winning something I want?

10 years ago
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It works like normal probability. It changes based on the amount of people in a giveaway. Has nothing to do with the amount of giveaways you enter.

10 years ago
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that reminds me that I planned to do a simple probability/combinatorics math quiz "puzzle"

10 years ago
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You have the same Santa hat than me. D:

10 years ago
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Indeed. We apparently both shop at the finest designer stores for our clothes, good for you!

10 years ago
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It's random regardless... so I guess a direct answer to your question would be "no".

10 years ago
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From a mechanical perspective, it's all random. There are no connections.

HOWEVER, if you enter for stuff you aren't interested in, you're potentially preventing someone who actually wants the game from winning. As such, if there is any such thing as karma, this sort of activity could severely damage your hopes of winning.

10 years ago
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srry... by not want I mean "want less", like I have my "target" games that I always make sure to enter, but I am interested in other games too

10 years ago
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Ah - got ya :)

In that case, no. It's like tossing a coin. Each giveaway is purely random!

10 years ago
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From the FAQ:


I haven't won anything, and this other person has won a bunch. What gives?

Winners are selected at random from the database the moment a giveaway closes.
The past history of a member has no affect on their chances of winning, and everyone always has an equal opportunity of being selected.

How can I increase my odds of winning or acquire more points faster?

There are no ways to increase your odds of winning, you have the same chances of winning as
everyone else. Points, as explained in the "points" portion of the FAQ, only increase when a public
giveaway is submitted. Group and private giveaways currently do not distribute points.

10 years ago
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Funny how I actually find the wording on the latter one to be logically false. For example, I contribute more, I can enter more giveaways with higher contributor levels, they have less entries, I have better odds at winning. And that is a very direct logical proof against the statement "there are no ways to increase your odds of winning".

I get what they are trying to say though, that in any particular giveaway the winner is chosen at random (basically I'm just missing this "any particular giveaway" part for logical accuracy; just general odds of winning "something" is much broader question)

10 years ago
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Dunno, maybe that part was written before contribution system was implemented, or it's just about particular giveaways as you said.

10 years ago
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Bleh I'm sure this is meant to be about a single particular giveaway not a general thing, it's just it's worded like it talks about grander picture and I'm being picky. Contributor system just one example of many I could speak of, just was easiest to mention

10 years ago
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It's random, dude.

10 years ago
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no it does not hurt your chances in any way

10 years ago
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ya man its random at least your not like me, you actually won something :P

10 years ago
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No, odds are entirely independent- entering one giveaway has no impact on an unrelated giveaway.

10 years ago
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If you spend your points on halflife and portal and don't have enough points for all the Medal of Hodor giveaways, then yes.
At one point it can happen that you not gonna have enough points for all the Medal of Hodor giveaways, 'cause you previously spent too much on other giveaways.

So basically, it's possible, but greatly depends on the frequency of your SG visits.

10 years ago
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Yes. Yes it does.

10 years ago
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Deleted

This comment was deleted 2 years ago.

10 years ago
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Did you already offered the human sacrifice to cg?

10 years ago
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What most likely won't hurt your chances of getting free games is clicking this link

10 years ago
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...

10 years ago
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If you are entering (and winning) "games [you] don't want", someday this conversation will come up with someone else you are talking to in person who also happens to be a Steamgifts user - who will then proceed to slap the shit out of you.

-Probably.

10 years ago
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Other people entering giveaways for games they don't want, but you do, hurts your chances of winning giveaways. If everyone enters giveaways for games they don't want, then everyone's chances to win are hurt. Why even enter giveaways for games you don't want?

10 years ago
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Generally no as all giveaways are independent.

But it's technically possible to screw yourself over due to the point system.

As a toy example lets say you enter 2x Total War Grand Master Collections which end at the same time spending 300P for the pair.

As soon as both giveaways end a bunch of Medal of Honers appear all with a 1 hour time limit. Since you won't be able to get more points until all the giveaways are over, you essentially messed yourself up. Of course if the giveaways didn't end yet you can always get your points back, but be careful putting all your points in giveaways that end at the same time.

10 years ago
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Closed 10 years ago by Aquila12555.