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I suppose there must be other factors, like how many different people you send a gift to, how long you've been friends with,
% of gifts you send / % of games you buy for yourself
For exemple i doubt steam will flag someone who always send gifts to the same person, with whom he has been friends for 3 years.
But someone who sends a gift to a hundred different people that he just added on steam, yeah probably looks suspicious.
So someone from here who would only send gifts from steam wallet to strangers, i suppose he is taking risks now unfortunately yes.

I don't think the chances are 0 if you use a credit card. But i've read that if you are no longer allowed to send gifts purchased from wallet you can still send gifts purchased from steam store using a credit card.