I was about 4 estimated wins when I got my first game.

My first win was well before EW was added to the site.

i think mine was like 0.2.. won it like after a few days.

I'm clearly the luckiest...
Gifts Won.. 2

Estimated Wins.. 0.87

Gifts Won1
Estimated Wins2.25

Gifts Won 13. Estimated Wins 7.01.
I should consider myself as a lucky man :D

My estimated wins is 10.43, and my actual wins is 4. :/

I think around 1.5 for me. It was Fortix though so it counts as double.

my lowest was like 0.2 but now i am in 7.11

YOLO

Giveaways Entered : 1,237
Estimated Wins : 1.19
Still nothing. :/

Estimated wins 5.52, actual wins 2. I won my first game when I had 3 estimated wins.

I also won on my birthday a couple of days ago, only to be told by the guy that ran the the giveaway that he doesn't have the game to give me. I call that pretty unlucky :(

GA entered: 1715
Gifts won: 2
Estimated wins: 4.11

When I won my first game however (Dungeon Defenders Collection), my estimated wins was <1, so I'd say I was fairly lucky then. Now...not so much. Not complaining though.

me too this site start to give me dubt about this rating...i have an estimated near 6 and i won 4 (a desura game in the count too) sry bad egnlish

GA entered: 54 and I won my first gift (same day I registered as far as I remember)

I remember having like 7 wins with a EW of like 2 or 3.
For some reason I won most days for a week and a half even with minimal contrib and being in no groups (when I first joined). I probably had a EW of like .2 or far less for my first win, but I wasn't looking then.

Then, I went about 3 months with nothing. now I just won 4 games in as many days, and have a EW of 14 with 20 games won.

I am incredibly unlucky. Don't get me started.

Estimated wins wasn't a feature on the site when I won my first giveaway so I can't really tell you. It happened within a few hundred entries though.

I saw random forum people with 1 estimated and 8 wins. Forgot who was he

Gifts Won 5
Estimated Wins 4.73

But I won Skyrim :p

This seems to come up regularly or slight variations thereof, you can calculate what the likely highest and lowest estimated wins prior to an actual win would be given that we know there are currently about 330000 members on this site. The mathematical formula required is rather complex and you may need to ask a teacher if your still at school or a nerdy friend or whoever if you are not well versed in maths lore. The distribution curve for this problem requires a logarithmic graph, or a semi-log graph as some call it as only the x axis, which should indicate the expected wins to actual wins ratio needs to a logarithmic scale, the y axis is just a linear frequency indicating how many people have this expected wins to actual wins ratio. From there due to the large sample we have (the sample is the quantity of users on the site who have entered at least one giveaway) you can base your calculations entirely on averages (you can look these up I don't know them off by heart). Now you can fit this into a linear graph showing the z-scores on the x axis (also known as the standard deviations) and keep the frequency on the y axis. We know that the standard distribution ought to fit 68% of steamgift members within one standard deviation of a ratio of 1, therefore when you refer to your table of averages (I still cant be bothered to look it up for you) you will have the value of a standard deviation (find the members who have a ratio of more than 1, then take the closest 68% of them (closest to one of course)(this will be equal to 34% of the total users since we are basing it off averages) and now find the user in that 68% who has the highest ratio (refer to your table of averages for this again)) and you now have the value of one standard deviation (this also works using the same method on the lower side of 1). Now the bit that is really interesting for this thread, is that 68% of users will be within one standard deviation (they are the boring ones) but 95% of users will be within 2 standard deviations (also not that interesting) and finally 99.7% of users will be within 3 standard deviations (a spot of mental arithmetic tells me that will be approximately 900 users). So now apply the results of having calculated what 3 standard deviations are equal to both above and below the ration 1 and you will find the range within which 450 incredibly lucky people have won their first game and subsequently also the range within which the 450 unluckiest people have won their first win.

I must be the must unluckiest guy on this site - look at my entries / won :)
But i dont care! One day i will win something :D

Estimated Wins is a REALLY REALLY bad way of determining if you are really lucky/unlucky or just a little lucky/unlucky.

Estimated wins only lets you know if you are lucky or unlucky. Variance or Standard Deviation would let you know exactly how lucky/unlucky you are.

Gifts Won 29
Estimated Wins 25.34

I've got 2 wins for GAR and red faction dlc (I'm not complaining :D Free is free :D + I had a lot of fun with gar and red faction) and have 4.31 Estimated wins :D