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Steamgifts is a refresher in statistics.

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xartle

The amazing thing about a 1 in 300 chance is that it's always a one in 300 chance. It's not like entering 300 times gets 1 win. It gets you 300 chances to be 1 in 300.

All of which goes to say: I haven't won anything for a short bit. :)

8 years ago

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mecorx

Create more giveaways so you can enter higher level giveaways!
Also, participate on the forum to gain access to exclusive giveaways?

I don't even enter things that are over 1:150 anymore, unless it's something really rare...

8 years ago
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xartle

Good points. I wonder if anyone has ever calculated the average number of entries for the different levels around here. Tonight it looks like L1 is roughly 400, L2 roughly 200 and L3 roughly 100. I can't imagine that it works out that neatly most nights.

8 years ago
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logan5

Number of entries is also probably very dependent on how desireable the game is for any level, i.e. was it ever bundled, or in a current bundle, or on a steep steam sale, or maybe price error? Versus non-bundled, more expensive games, or ones that go on sale rarely, or new/preorders. Some simple supply demand economics going on here too :)

8 years ago
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BigBlueWolf

While you may be facing the unalterable odds of any individual GA, this site also presents good odds of being able to win the more you enter. Right now I've entered ~150 GAs since my last win, and according to the math there was about a 50-50 chance I'd win one of those. That's pretty decent odds considering entering doesn't cost anything other than the time it takes to click a button.

8 years ago
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