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Probability of Winning Per Day is not calculated correctly

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sassdrake

It seems that Probability of Winning Per Day is sum of all chances to win entered GAs instead of using correct formula because it shows 100% even if there is no GA where I am only entry.

More info: https://www.statology.org/probability-of-at-least-one-success/

In other words:
Let GA1 have probability p1, GA2 have p2, and GA3 p3. All GAs are ending on same date. In that case Probability of Winning Per Day should be calculated as:
p = 1 - (1-p1) x (1-p2) x (1-p3)

1 year ago

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10 Comments
Oppenh4imer

As far as I know it is calculated correctly. Is it possible that you have entered a giveaway with more than one copy?

1 year ago
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Tcharr

You read my mind.

1 year ago
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sassdrake

It is, but probability of winning in those GAs are less than 0.05.

1 year ago
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Oppenh4imer

Mhh. That was my only idea.

1 year ago
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sassdrake

Some screenshots:

https://imgur.com/a/LcYxr6i
https://imgur.com/a/rZ6O51u

1 year ago
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Oppenh4imer

Is the probability per day original SG code or altered by ESGST or so?

1 year ago
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sassdrake

Altered by ESGST.

1 year ago
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MrPantera

Looks ok to me.
There is one ga where you have 100% chance of winning (one or less entries per copy).

1 year ago
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sassdrake

You are right. Now I've noticed there is one with 100% chance. Thanks.

1 year ago
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Thexder

We had a similar doubt in the past, and BIG BOSS CG shot us down completely. :D

1 year ago
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