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You're chances of winning depends on what kind of giveaway you enter; public, group and private. If you want to increase your chances you should keep an eye out for private giveaways or enter a private group that does a consistent amount of decent giveaways. God help you if you aim to win a public giveaway these days lol

12 years ago

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Your chances of winning any giveaway you ever enter is 1 divided by the number of total entrants.

12 years ago

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I should tell my mom to stop eating then, I've won 3 giveaways in the last month.

12 years ago

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I'm a total noob to this site, but I do know a bit about probability. The more people enter a giveaway, the lower the odds are that you'll win. If a particular giveaway has C entries at the time of the draw, you have a 1 in C chance of winning. If we suppose that every draw you entered had exactly C entries, the chance of winning nothing after 132 tries is 100*((C-1)/C)^132 percent. This means that if all your entries were for contests with 200 entries, there's a 48.5% chance you would've won something by now, but if every contest you enter has 1000 people there's only a 13.4% chance of winning at least once in 132 tries. So whether 132 entries and 0 wins is a surprising record or not really depends on which contests you've been entering. The best way to get a win is to focus your points on contests which don't cost a lot of points and have relatively few entries (say, less than 200). It's also helpful to check in often, because then you can catch the giveaways that are only open for a few hours... fewer people will see these giveaways, which means fewer entries and therefore better odds.

12 years ago

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First of all, cute equation. Second of all, that is wrong.

Number of giveaways you enter doesn't rly matter. They don't add to your overall winning chance. You have individual winning chance for every giveaway but they don't add up. The only way you can increase your chances in particular giveaway is to get more entries into it, but that is against the site rules.

@OP: You should just try gettin in private groups, they have a lot less entries to a giveaway - people join if they want the game, not to just win something.

12 years ago

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Actually, you are wrong and discardthree is right, the equation she wrote (and the assumption that every giveaway entered has the same number of participants) gives the probability of winning at least one time in 132 independent identically distributed giveaways.

You should take some probability or game theory courses, it will do you good :P

12 years ago

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Thanks for the backup... I was already writing a reply and didn't see it until after I replied too.

Also: equation she wrote (FTFY :P)

12 years ago

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No badassery intended, and I'm not a math professor either (just a PhD student).

Like you said, there's no way to increase your odds in a particular giveaway, but what I'm talking about is considering a sequence of entries and determining the probability of failing all of them. You're right, probabilities do not add up; they multiply. Sorry to get mathy again, but if A and B are independent events, the probability of both A and B happening is Prob(A)*Prob(B) (If for whatever reason you don't believe me, wikipedia has a page on Independence (Probability Theory) that you should check out). What I've done is find the probability of him losing all 132 giveaways (the intersection of 132 independent events) for a couple scenarios based on giveaway size. My main goal was to give OP numbers to demonstrate how depending on the size of the giveaways they enter, failing all their entries could be tragically unlucky or it could be pretty much what you'd expect to happen.

If I roll a die and I want a 6, the odds of not getting one in 20 rolls is (5/6) to the power of 20 (times 100 if you want a percent). This gives you a 2.6% chance of NOT getting any 6s in 20 rolls. If this has just happened to me then it DOESN'T mean 'I'm due for a win' (because each roll is independent), but it does mean that every time I run the experiment I have a 97.4% chance of getting at least one 6. Knowing I've been unusually unlucky lets me see that it's worth doing another set of 20 rolls because each set has a 97.4% chance of having at least one 6.

12 years ago

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This same math has been tried in applications with regards to crate opening in TF2. It was wrong when they tried on SUF, and it is wrong here.

Probability deals with singular giveaways in this case, not multiple variables across numerous combined singularities.

12 years ago

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what are the chances of winning?

number of copies / number of entriesis there a way to increase it?

Unless you find a way to convince the gifter to increase the number of copies, or convince entrants to remove their entry, no.If I make more competitions, do I stand a better chance of winning anything atleast?

no.

12 years ago

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3 is uncertain. You never know if a person that wins will decide to create a bazillion giveaways after winning.

12 years ago

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It's all somewhat based on the total number of entrants... Say, if you ever get into a give-away where only another guy is in it (may happen in private give-aways) you got a 50% chance of winning (2 guys entered, so either you or him win).

If 100 entered and you are among them, then your chance is 1%, if 1000 then yours is 0.1% etc.

It's not a high chance, but it's there... also, everybody has that chance, so it's all based on a bit of luck for those huge give-aways.

12 years ago

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just enter i mean i enter an giveaway not thinking i win and i won.so just keep entering you win someday

12 years ago

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Chances of winning...

One chance in X,XXX entries in the giveaway... Each giveaway should be treated separately and you shouildn't count all giveaways as a cumulative number.

Increase by getting into groups that run giveaways (like mine) or even better, private groups.

12 years ago

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Don't expect a win, but be very surprised and glad when you get one :)

There has been discussions that creating giveaways should give more points or improve the chances, but I think it was cancelled, because of the fear that people would abuse it.

12 years ago

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