The main evidence for July 12th is that the developer of Cubemen stated that it was going to start then. He then backtracked and said he wasn't sure, but that may have just been because he realized he leaked something he wasn't supposed to and didn't want to get in trouble with Steam. I believe there's also some circumstancial evidence about games getting their release dates pushed around to clear the schedule around then, but I haven't followed it all that closely.
[edit]: Or see this thread right near the top of the forum.
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Thx for the only serious answer! Gave me some info.
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They can't afford to let too many people die.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dIbxPVHJEw8
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I know another topic, blah blah blah. But I have to know... Why is everyone so sure the summer sale will be July the 12th why that day? Yes it's a Thursday but that mean a whole lot just because the other ones where on that day doesn't mean Valve won't change the day.
Edit: Found the reason.
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