How can the Estimated Wins be so accurate?

Magic.

Meh...

They're not accurate for most people xD

NOT ACCURATE FOR ME :meatytears:

It is different for every one, you are probably an exception with such a close ratio. For awhile mine was estimated 38 with 45 games won so it can have a pretty big difference.

Reiterating what others have said; it's not that accurate at all.

Source: Me.

est = Sum ( #copies(i)/#entries(i) ) with i indexing the i-th giveaway you entered.

Law of averages

relatively, a variation of 0.01 is not something that can be considered as « accurate »

yes, very accurate. look at mine :D

Gifts Won
186
Estimated Wins
192.33

Not so accurate ;p

I have 2 Estimated Wins and won 4. Accuracy at its best.

won 3 with 6 estimated..

I really don't know the formula behind it

Estimated wins is the sum of your chance of winning each giveaway you enter. Say you enter a giveaway with 49 other people, your chance of winning is 1/50, or 0.02. Enter 50 of those giveaways, and you're now at 50/50 or 1.0. That's your estimated wins. It doesn't guarantee you a win, but on average it'll be about right.

If you install SteamGifts Plus you can see your chance of winning each individual giveaway, and even filter it to only show giveaways above a certain win chance.

For me it's 11.29 estimated 12 won, and for a long time it was even closer than that.

It calculates % of chances of you winning a giveaway, then transforms that % into a decimal number (ex: 1% = 0.01), and keeps summing them up. That's basically statistics: when you reach 1 win it's not marked by destiny or anything that you should have won one, but statistics say you're pretty close to.

EDIT, got ninja'd by the guy above me >:C

I'm 10 wins behind the odds...

luckily they're not that accurate for me :)

Mine is not accurate. I'm a bit ahead of my estimated wins.

Sort of is.

Because statistics.

Well, I'd be happy if it's accurate..

i'm only halfway to my estimated so...

My 24 estimated wins and 14 actual wins beg to differ.