Nothing changed. Random is random. So, basically you just have bad luck and you are below the statistically expected value. Consider luck/winning a bell curve. The majority will win the number of giveaways which they statistically are "supposed" to while some might be on the edges of the curve either far surpassing their "supposed" wins or being far below.
So, in short it is bad luck and somewhere is your counter-pole having +2.13 gifts. You are doing something good :P
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So, in short it is bad luck and somewhere is your counter-pole having +2.13 gifts.
It would be actually normalized before by making this into a percentage luck, flat 2 difference is not the same when you win 1 instead of 3, or 44 instead of 46.
Winning 44 instead of the expected 46 places it at 95.7 luck, and its counterpoint would be somebody with 104.3 luck
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What is this "-2.13 gifts" ? (Oh, I get it.. I have -2.51 for february..)
If you enter giveaways with 1000 entries for 1 game, the chance to win is small... If you look at your won you have multiple copy of game giveaways...
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Given the exploitative behavior of the majority of members there's a trend to group only/invite only giveaways. Relying purely on public giveaways might not be the most promising strategy.
Besides, did you neglect the deities you worship and missed to offer the necessary sacrifices?
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I must have forgotten the sacrifices lol
But how do I fund good groups to join for better giveaways?
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https://www.steamgifts.com/discussions/group-recruitment would be a start. Additionally, you could search for groups on Steam which match your interests.
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A lot of the groups hbarkas is talking about have ratio rules and restrictions for joiners. My advice would be to make a few more giveaways and be more active and then look for recruitment threads.
Good luck :)
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For the monthly luck calculation it's irrelevant how many giveaways shifted to groups or invite. You are still either more or less lucky than your average expected wins. either way.
And it's incorrect that there is such a trend, in the past 4 years the shares for each kind of giveaways have been pretty stable.
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Mine went to -6 at its lowest to +2 at the highest, and is sitting at -2 right now. https://i.ibb.co/PMfVBsg/Image1.jpg
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You got some nice cosinus there! Or mirrored sinus?
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Hehe, no idea, but it's a pretty big swing either way, compared to your pretty flat one. I wonder if the site tries to balance it out or if it all really is just random?
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I believe it is counted from chances to win entered giveaways, cause it kinda fits I can't be unlucky.
https://ibb.co/Zdb0ZHH
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It is entered, I haven't won anything over 2 years. But good luck if you want to be like me :D
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Yes, I understand how the number of predicted gifts based on the average is calculated. What I'm wondering is, does the site favor winners based on how unlucky they have been? Or is it completely random, and I just happened to get really unlucky, and then really lucky, in consecutive months.
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Doubt, it will be complete rng. It is there just for us to feel more miserable.
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Just bad luck. For the past 3 months I was -2.7, -1.0, -1.2. I am still +9 overall since I joined though.
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I don't mind. I have won a lot of games and have a huge backlog to play though. It has been negative for a few months, but it has been positive before that and will be positive again. I try not to look at that stats page too often.
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That's unlucky. Since I joined my luck seems to be a wave of +1 and -1.
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So I decided to give the site a proper go since mid-December after kind of taking a break, I've entered a load of giveaways and for the last 2.5 months, my estimated giveaways is on -2.13 gifts. Has something changed as I don't remember it being like this before?
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