I don't understand estimated wins :/

Estimated Wins

This is a number calculated by the chance you had of winning each giveaway you have entered. If you entered a giveaway with a 50% chance of winning, your Estimated Wins will increase by 0.5, no matter if you won or lost. This number is no indication that you should have won that many games, it is simply to allow you to see if you are more or less lucky than what the odds allow.

It just says that you probably should have won 12 or 13 games. Because that is the Probabulity. Whats so hard to understand lool

Sum of 1/(entries in giveaway) for every giveaway you have entered.

It should tell the estimation of how many you should have won...