Overall, you've been ?
To be clear, often enough I saw 3 or less giveaways and yes also 0 so yeah...
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Never won a giveaway in the 9+ months of using this sadly.
https://gyazo.com/795a0beed848c499b77c3a2b67178f04
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Overall, you've been unlucky, and won 5 fewer gifts than estimated since you first joined.
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Overall, you've been unlucky, and won 6 fewer gifts than estimated since you first joined.
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It's all my fault.
Sorry.
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sg giveth, sg taketh away but i cant complain, no, a true rollercoaster
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I was mostly lucky in recent months and I'm still at -11 in total.
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Overall, you've been unlucky, and won 11 fewer gifts than estimated since you first joined
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Overall, you've been unlucky, and won 55 fewer gifts than estimated since you first joined.
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"Overall, you've been lucky, and won 6 more gifts than estimated since you first joined." The benefit of joining group, train, and puzzle GA's.
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Overall, you've been unlucky, and won 12 fewer gifts than estimated since you first joined.
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won 18 fewer gifts than estimated, but felt kinda lucky nonetheless. guess it's life!
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Overall, you've been unlucky, and won 6 fewer gifts than estimated since you first joined.
Honestly, won't complain!
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Competiton for flattest line?
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You have a bigger downward bump on yours than I have!
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Overall, you've been unlucky, and won 19 fewer gifts than estimated since you first joined.
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I don't believe in the concept of luck. Predicting the collapse of the quantum wave function is my MO.
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I agree that they really change the win rate. You increase your chances by a lot being part of a small group that offers quality games that you want or wish to play.
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I think the formula to calculate luck probably has some objectivity to reach a figure and I wouldn't read it as an absolute unless the formula equates for amount of people per group even when you're in a thousand groups which is maybe possible but very unlikely I think, I mean to say amount of people entering per game giveaway.
I think the formula just calculates:
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The probability of a win for each individual giveaway based on the number of entries, regardless of giveaway source & scope. Example: Entering a giveaway with 10 total entries means that there is a 1 in 10 chance you could win.
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The number of wins during that time period.
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Takes the "sum" of wins probabilities from all entered GAs, and compares the actual number of wins the person received. Example: If I entered 10 GAs that each had 10 entries (1 in 10 chance), but I won 0 games, then I am "unlucky" by one gift because constant probability suggests I should have won 1 game ([1/10]*10=1 gift). If I had won 2 games, then I am lucky by one extra gift because probability says I should have received one.
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how to show your luck
go to https://www.steamgifts.com/stats/personal/community -> Luck Per Month
screenshot it and past the link in a comment (modify it with your link):
why show your luck ?
it is just a good way to see if you're been lucky or unlucky during all you're years in steamgifts.
Or just add in the comment in you're been lucky or unlucky with the number of gifts (in my case : Unlucky / Won 9 fewer gifts than estimated)
Discussion greatly inspired by show me you're curves from icaio
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