Similar thing ever happen to you?
Maybe giveaway was deleted? Dont know if the stat take that into account.
Comment has been collapsed.
Maybe this is it. I was the only entrant for a deleted giveaway. But that giveaway has passed and wasn't due to end on June 30. Hmmm...
Comment has been collapsed.
Was the giveaway that was deleted on June 29 or July 1? I think the percent to win might be calculated on the server time zone while your own time zone could show the giveaway ending one day early or later than calculated if it is close.
Comment has been collapsed.
Maybe a giveaway with multiple copies?
for example when the creator gives away 50 copies and there are 30 participants than you have also 100%
another reason can be that you entered much giveaways and that the system rounded it up to 100?
I dont know the reason but this are some of my guesses what the reason can be
Comment has been collapsed.
I didn't think about multiple copies. Thank you!
But! that is not the answer either...
Comment has been collapsed.
Its means you are lucky and the algorithm likes you
Comment has been collapsed.
In addition to the multiple copies thing, the dates on that chart are server dates (GMT?) so depending on where you are the giveaway may be listed as July 1 or June 29 for you.
Comment has been collapsed.
Even taking into account the date fuzziness, I shouldn't have that high a chance.
Comment has been collapsed.
100% chance to win doesn't literally mean 100%. SG should cap it at 99% because 100% means that you are guaranteed to win and that is not true unless you are in a giveaway with only 1 entry or a giveaway with enough copies to give each entrant a win.
Edit: I think SG works like this: If you enter a giveaway with a total of 4 entrants, your chance to win is 25%. If you enter 4 giveaways where each have 4 entrants, I think SG add this up to equal 100% chance to win (25% from each of 4 giveaways), even thought that is not exactly correct. At 100% or more, the odds are in your favor to win, but in the end, it depends on RNG or luck. SG should cap it at 99% or keep adding it up and show us percentages over 100%.
Edit: The way I calculated the probability is wrong. A couple users responded to this comment below explaining how to calculate it correctly.
Comment has been collapsed.
It's kinda correct by average as you should win 100% of a game. But doesn't account for the chance you might win 2+ or 0.
What's worse is that the algorithm assumes no one else will enter, which we all know isn't exactly true...
Comment has been collapsed.
That is why I was thinking it would be a good idea to show over 100%. You could have a 250% chance which would just mean that probability says that you should win 2 games and have another 50% chance at a 3rd win.
I think it is fine that the algorithm calculates based on the current number of entries. There is no way to know exactly how many people are going to enter and I know that it is based on current entries, so it will just become more accurate and the percentage will drop as it gets closer to that date and more people enter.
I guess a really complicated algorithm could be designed where it checks previous giveaways for the same game to see how many entries there were and then uses an average to estimate how many entries there will be, but there would be a lot of factors to consider like how long the giveaway is open for, level restriction, region restrictions, groups, time zones, recent bundles or sales.
Comment has been collapsed.
It's basic probability:
• A giveaway with 1 prize and 4 entrants gives you a 25% chance to win.
• Subtract from 100% and you'll see the same giveaway has a 75% chance NOT to win.
• Since we're looking for the chance to win at least 1 giveaway, we multiply the chances NOT to win each giveaway to see what the probability of winning nothing is. (So in our example it would be 0.75 x 0.75 x 0.75 x 0.75 = 0.3164)
• To find the probability of winning something (1 or more), subtract the result of the previous step from 100%. (1 - 0.3164 = 0.6836, or 68.36%)
(You can also use fractions instead of decimals, in which case you'd have 3/4 x 3/4 x 3/4 x 3/4 = 81/256, and then 1 - 81/256 = 256/256 - 81/256 = 175/256, which comes out to the same number.)
I actually tested this yesterday, and my calculations matched what SG said on the stats page once I accounted for time zones and one pesky giveaway that kept getting entries in the middle of my calculations.
So unless there's a bug, OP's chances would supposedly be between 99.995% and 99.999% and the algorithm just rounded up. You'd need a LOT of entries to get those kinds of numbers though, so I'm guessing there's a bug. Regardless, it would be nice if it capped below 100% because there's no such thing as a sure bet, even here.
Comment has been collapsed.
I never really learned about calculating odds/probability, so I am a bit confused by this part:
• Since we're looking for the chance to win at least 1 giveaway, we multiply the chances NOT to win each giveaway to see what the probability of winning nothing is. (So in our example it would be 0.75 x 0.75 x 0.75 x 0.75 = 0.3164)
• To find the probability of winning something (1 or more), subtract the result of the previous step from 100%. (1 - 0.3164 = 0.6836, or 68.36%)
Are you talking here about the example I gave of 4 giveaways where each has 4 entries? Are you saying that your chances of winning a giveaway with 4 entries is 25%, but your chances of winning 1 of 4 giveaways where each has 4 entries is 68.36% because you calculate it based on your chances of not winning each giveaway? If so, that is new to me and quite interesting, but also confusing.
Comment has been collapsed.
Yep! It's difficult to explain in the discussion board format, but you got the gist of it. The reason we calculate the odds of winning nothing is because it's easier than calculating the odds of winning 1, 2, 3, or 4 games and adding them up. Same results, just a simpler calculation.
Comment has been collapsed.
Lets name each giveaway A, B, C and D. Let's examine the possible outcomes.
Scenario 1: You could win 4 out of 4, so (A, B, C, D)
Scenario 2: You could win 3 out of 4, so either (A, B, C) or (A, B, D) or (A, C, D) or (B, C, D)
Scenario 3: You could win 2 out of 4, so either (A, B) or (A, C) or (A, D) or (B, C) or (B, D) or (C, D)
Scenario 4: You could win 1 out of 4, so either (A) or (B) or (C) or (D)
Scenario 5: You could win 0 out of 4.
In every scenario except scenario 5, you win at least 1 giveaway, so if you were simply looking for the chance to win at least one, its easier to just calculate the chance of winning 0 out of 4 and then subtracting from 100%. It would be identical to calculating the probability of Scenario 1 through 4 and then adding them up.
In case you wanted to see the math, let's calculate the probability of each scenario.
Scenario 1: The chance to win all 4 of the giveaways is calculated by multiplying the odds of winning each giveaway together, so 0.25 x 0.25 x 0.25 x 0.25 = 0.390625%
Scenario 2: The chance to win 3 of the 4 giveaways is calculated by multiplying the odds of winning 3 of the giveaways and the odds of losing the last giveaway, so 0.25 x 0.25 x 0.25 x 0.75 = 1.171875% which you then multiply by 4 because there are 4 possible outcomes in scenario 2 which gives 4.6875%
Scenario 3: The chance to win 2 of the 4 giveaways is calculated by multiplying the odds of winning 2 of the giveaways by the odds of losing the other 2 giveaways, so 0.25 x 0.25 x 0.75 x 0.75 = 3.515625% which you then multiply by 6 because there are 6 possible outcomes in scenario 3 which gives 21.09375%
Scenario 4: The chance to win 1 of the 4 giveaways is calculated by multiplying the odds of winning 1 giveaway by the odds of losing the other 3 giveaways, so 0.25 x 0.75 x 0.75 x 0.75 = 10.546875% which you then multiply by 4 because there are 4 possible outcomes in scenario 4 which gives 42.1875%
Scenario 5: The chance to win none of the 4 giveaways is calculated by multiplying the odds of losing each giveaway together, so 0.75 x 0.75 x 0.75 x 0.75 = 31.640625%
If you add up all of these percentages, they indeed equal 100%. If they did not, it means we either did not factor in every possible scenario or we made an error in our calculations.
Comment has been collapsed.
That's really interesting, I didn't know it was calculated like that. Thanks for the explanation :)
Comment has been collapsed.
if you don't win, you can sue cg for false advertising :3
Comment has been collapsed.
That's my plan!
"I rule in favor of the plaintiff. Judgement is declared in the amount of 7000 guaranteed wins on Steamgifts dot com, all wins to be delivered by Dec. 31, 2019."
[Since the judge does not understand Steamgifts, the choice of giveaways is left up to cg, and I am paid in 7000 various gardening simulator and hentai house chores games.]
Comment has been collapsed.
Just for the heck of it, I calculated what sort of odds you'd be getting if all your entries were in giveaways with only 25 entrants. 100 entries like that would only get your odds up to 98.3%. It would take 243 before it got rounded up to 100%. Unless you meant several hundred giveaways, this seems like a bug.
edit: Are you sure you didn't misread 1.00 as 100? Because that sounds like the sort of thing I might do.
Comment has been collapsed.
I'm sure I'm not misreading the number, because it also appears as a graph. So I'm seeing the peak on the graph as well.
I have about 26 giveaways ending on or about June 30. One giveaway is 25 entries. Only 7 of the remaining are under 200 entries. The rest range up to 5000. I'm nowhere near 100%.
Comment has been collapsed.
Mystery solved, everybody.
Solution: I am blind.
One of the giveaways indeed had more copies than entrants. How did I miss that?
Comment has been collapsed.
Weird, now that you mention it -- I also have 100%, same day, and I see no GAs I am in with very few entries....
But, then, i saw it -- was it that "Tales of Candlekeep" DLC GA with more than 90 copies? :D
Cheers!
Comment has been collapsed.
Weird. I show 100% chance to win on June 30. But my Giveaways Entered list includes several giveaways that end on that date, but the lowest entry list is 25.
What gives?
Comment has been collapsed.