Don't know about any private groups, but keep an eye out for the sneaky forum giveaway people. Your odds are better (obviously) if you're entering things that only 20 people found/solved/etc. Often you will see a completely inane forum topic, then see in their profile a private giveaway running. That's when you know it's time to start investigating... :)
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I should note that I'm certainly not complaining, I joined to get rid of a bunch of game keys that I had laying around unused which has been great.
Have joined private groups and been in some giveaways where there was only 5 people entered (hence the estimated wins is such, without large entries).
I'm just curious as to who is the worst off in initial luck that I might be able to get a spare key or two to :)
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I'm active, but I'm busy trying to get my EW up without winning anything. It's not as easy as you might think....
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really?
contribute more = more contr. giveaways to enter = more chances to win
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This is right.
The more you give, the more giveaways you can enter that others wouldn't be able to (excluding groups and private). Also, higher CV giveaways tend to have less people in them as there are less people with CV than without.
Just because some people have been unlucky they assume higher CV doesn't equal higher chances but it does, they've just been unlucky.
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I was well on my way to a 5-win:estimate-gap (20:25) until I accidentally won yesterday. Seeing as how I started at 20:19 (I had won one more game than I statistically should have), I'm not too bothered. These things even out over time.
What you SHOULDN'T do is start a QQ topic about how you aren't winning. ...sigh. I think I have to actually update the list now.
(edit: link removed)
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Having recently communicated with Support re: blacklists, I believe you are correct. Blacklists are only allowed if they don't 'call out' the person with what they did.
Calling out is taken very seriously on this site, and after further discussion, I have come to believe that this is the correct decision.
I have removed the link.
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I am 4 behind - 5:9.4
It's been so long since I won something...
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45.18 wins predicted and only 45 actual wins!
Why does life hate me? D:
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I'm on 3 wins, estimated 6.12. All three are games that are on my backlog now, far above the 'got it bundled with my wanted game' list.
Really wanting a copy of Night at the Inventory 1 or 2. I was once quite the card shark on Puzzle Pirates.
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One of the things I would never do is complain because: First, it is against the rules, and second, this is all part of the game of randomness, and there's where the fun is. Some can be luckier than others or maybe not, because all this is based on randomness. If some can't tolerate not be winning, then they should stop entering giveaways and start buying the games themselves... (:P)
But, if it is true that you're just curious about those numbers, then check my profile... ^_^
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Man at least you're not a leecher, I hope you win something big and soon. I'm tired to see people that never gave anything here complaining about their wins.
Today I just see a guy that won 8 gifts (Snapshot twice) and never gave a game (actually I think he gave a free beta key), trading portal on steamtrades.
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I'm not at all fussed about winning at all, I have a large enough catalog of games as it is really, more just thought why not. I'm actually interested in getting my estimated up as high as possible without winning anything. I WANT to lose more!
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Oh damn, luck sure likes me :)
Sadly I must have had too much lately, so I injured my ankle a week ago :/
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So, I just looked and saw I'm up to 2.01 "estimated wins" with 0 actual wins and it got me thinking, how bad is it for some people before your first win. I'm considering a giveaway to the person with the highest estimated but still not won anything.
Now I'm up to 2:0 I'm curious to see how high I can get before I win.
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