Since people in the affected giveaways were asking for it, here is some data. :)

I did a little experiment: I created giveaways from level 0 to 10 of the same game to see how will they fare as we progressively go up. I chose a bunch of Artifex Mundi hidden object games as subjects, because a) I have a ton of keys for them and b) HOGs are one of the most popular and most accessible casual genres with a pretty wide player base, and games published by Artifex Mundi practically never go below decent quality (but many of them are regarded to be among the best of the genre). So, it was something that attracted probably the widest audience, but cheap enough to avoid the really large armies of auto-entry scripts and bots.

Now, the data:

Title Lv0 Lv1 Lv2 Lv3 Lv4 Lv5 Lv6 Lv7 Lv8 Lv9 Lv10
Enigmatis 2: The Mists of Ravenwood 1353 (1) 780 303 198 155 79 40 16 6 3 (1) 2
Enigmatis: The Ghosts of Maple Creek 1405 (1) 802 (1) 395 278 233 145 100 67 35 20 7
Left in the Dark: No One on Board 1277 (1) 708 300 214 170 86 51 28 12 5 3
Mythic Wonders: The Philosopher's Stone 2008 (1) 1177 552 479 433 320 229 166 96 56 31
The Emerald Maiden: Symphony of Dreams 2083 1270 573 494 468 (1) 328 245 176 99 66 31
The Secret Order 3: Ancient Times 2193 (2) 1358 618 552 496 337 249 183 102 66 30
Tibetan Quest: Beyond the World's End 2112 1326 586 518 469 337 247 191 105 67 29
Time Mysteries Collection 1899 1111 393 278 243 130 57 (1) 27 10 4 (2) 2 (1)
Princess Isabella: The Rise of an Heir 1448 1315 747 702 660 483 336 230 143 96 43
Average (rounded): 1753 1094 496 413 370 249 173 120 68 43 20

Numbers in parenthesis mean number of rerolls.
Below the post, you can also see a graph. It details the amount of entries for each game based on levels, on a logarithmic scale.

What can be learnt?

  1. If you post something that generates average interest, the number of entries going up will mostly reflect the graph of the user base of the site, meaning that the chance for an auto-joiner to pop up on your giveaway is more or less the same regardless of levels.
  2. Second, that yes, level 0 is the most "infested" with rule-breakers.
  3. The two highest levels for bundle games are practically useless. The amount of entries is so low that one of my giveaways was literally one entry short of ending without a valid winner.
  4. The last one of the series was the only game where level 0 had a 1-copy giveaway, like the rest. All others had a 4-pack there. As you can see, Princess Isabella was by far the most popular, except on level 0 and level 1. This means that more people just look at the amount of copies there than the actual game being given away.
  5. Even if something is a bundle game, even if it is from IndieGala, the cheapest source of keys, the number of entries you'll get is strictly based on how often was the game bundled. The five that tower above all the rest on level 8+ were bundled only once, the rest at least two (and up to five I think) times.
  6. The triple pack also gives us a few insights, but I am running a similar experiment now. If people are interested, I can share some of the findings later here.

Also, a few more graphs added, thanks to TinyPurple. ♥

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7 years ago*

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First!
I actually posted this before reading, I'll do it now.

7 years ago
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7 years ago*
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i just realised theres 2 of u... i used to think ur pic changes it's face positions...

7 years ago
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Windu is a copycat! I was the first one to make an Eryn themed profile.

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7 years ago
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I could help you with that... by joining forces with him, of course :3

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mike wins! look at all those emotes arranged on his profile, its too gud windu, step it up!

7 years ago
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But Windu has almost all those nice fault emoticons... I'm kinda jealous, I have only two.

7 years ago
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Are you... stalking me?

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7 years ago
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What happens

SG explodes!

oh but wait that's a real post, nice data collection

7 years ago
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nice data :) oh and 42

7 years ago
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Analitic`s dad ^_^ :3

7 years ago
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Second, that yes, level 0 is the most "infested" with rule-breakers.

Aren't level 0 is like over 50% of all SG users? I'm asking because now I wonder if it's most "infested" with rule-breakers %-wise (so, you know, if there's 5 rule-breakers among 100 0-levelers and 1 rule breaker among 10 10-levelers, then it means there's 5% of rule breakers with level 0 and 10% of rule breakers with level 10).

Thanks for data.

7 years ago
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Level 0 is about 85% of the user base.
source: https://www.steamgifts.com/stats/community/users

7 years ago
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More than half in total, but it also has the biggest chunk of inactive users.
As for percentages, it is tricky. In my experience, at least 15% of the level 0 users have broken the "must activate on own account" rule alone at one point or another. I assume the number goes lower as levels get higher, but on high levels, whole new problems can arise.

7 years ago
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Out of curiosity, what 'new problems' are you talking about?

7 years ago
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That they don't even know what they have on their accounts. :) All but maybe three of my level 7+ rerolls were due to game being already owned, the rest was because winner won it more than once.

7 years ago
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Interesting stuff,thanks

7 years ago
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well maybe u're right xD no clue... as what i can say is that i didnt enter any of said ga's u did.... i only enter for ga's of games i'm interested in playing xD oh if it matters to you lvl 4 here

7 years ago
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There are a million registered users, and even if half of them is inactive, that is still the overwhelming majority of them not entering these giveaways. But statistically, the amount that did is enough to be representative, despite focusing on one single game genre.

7 years ago
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woa, awesome info. Thanks :D

7 years ago
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I was interested in seeing this, thanks for doing all the work!

7 years ago
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The more interesting thing I see is the rerolls for lvl 9/10. Could you give the reasons ?

7 years ago
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Already owned and multiple wins of the same game. Out of the entrants of Time Mysteries on level 8 and up, there were actually 3 people in total who were actually eligible.

7 years ago
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thats the reason why I personally care more bout the "hide" possibility xD

7 years ago
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Hi, I guess that re-rolls for Time Mysteries Collection on high levels were caused by already owned games (happens a lot for collection, DLCs, etc.), or were there real rule breakers?
Also regarding level 9 re-roll of Enigmatis 2: The Mists of Ravenwood: I'm curious about reason too. :D
Just for some statistics about what rules high level users usually break. ;-)

Update: checked level 9 and 10 giveaways for Time Mysteries Collection - previous winners own 2-3 games from pack.
Update2: who wants to see re-roll train for already own reason (and haven't seen it yet) - check comments here. :D

7 years ago*
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Yeah, that Sam & Max is now famous for having more rerolls than probably any other giveaway on the site, ever.

As for the high-level ones: already owned with Time Mysteries, multiple wins of Enigmatis.

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Also worth noting:
As one might expect, the amount of interest decreases notably as you go up the levels if the game has already been bundled frequently [eg, Time Mysteries, Enigmatis]. This has high level entries go down to below a third their investment in the less common games, while low level entries never drop below half that of more high-interest games.

Rephrased, this means that you'll always have steady interest in games at lower levels, but as you move up, the chances of users already having the games increases [be that due to a higher investment in gaming, more familiarity with the site, better access to groups, or a stronger bundle-buying compulsion].

For example, in my case it's pretty rare for me not to have a HOG- most trade fairly low, so even now that I've stopped buying HOG bundles or entering for HOG giveaways, the ones that're more interesting to me are still easy to acquire.

Back when I started on the site, my interest in the HOGs I was missing was much higher- I had far fewer to work with, so they were of much higher interest, and I was far less invested in bundle purchasing. Likewise, as a new user, your palate for games hasn't quite been cultivated yet, so you tend to enter a bit more freely (with a 'that looks good' mentality) than many of us seem to do later on (with an 'Okay, which games do I totally want most, and damn the entry count'). Of course, many new users primarily also invest in high entry count AAA games, but there aren't typically enough of those up to make more than a dent in their available entry points.

7 years ago
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Yes, I expected mostly the same going in; frankly, I was ready to have no legit winners on three of the games over level 8. And Time Mysteries just barely managed it, with 3 people in total over lvl8 who could actually get it from me.
I am more surprised at Princess Isabella 3, to be honest. Level 7+ produced 1.5 to 3× entries than I assumed.

7 years ago
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7. Even when I enter into every single AM 0 - 10 lvl GAs I can, and it's made by you, I can't win : D

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7 years ago
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Well, you'll have at least 400 more tries, assuming you are a member of the HOG group. :)

7 years ago
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I don't like to enter into GAs where my "chances" are too high xD That's why I'm even passing WL GAs, as I think there is someone who will enjoy them more than I would do at that time :D

7 years ago
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Well, that group is open, and those giveaways are still shared with the Dumpsters, so thus far they produced numbers similar to a level 1-2 fully public one. :)

7 years ago
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Which one were you interested in? Cause I still got spare copies of some of them, if you want :>

7 years ago
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Oh, you're so nice :D
But I will pass, I want to win them all (like with catching Pokemons, : D). I hadn't even activate single key from HOG bundle I didn't have when I was buying stuff for GAs. I want to make celebration topic bc of that. And it makes me so much happier after winning new HOG from AM that way, I feel like I'm reaching my goal "will make celebration thread" :D

7 years ago
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Fair play, I know exactly what you mean! I had the same thing with the Portal of Evil HOG. After more than 400 entries for this game I just had to win it on sg, even though someone else tried to just give me a key.

7 years ago
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Leecher high-five! D:

7 years ago
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o/

7 years ago
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Very interesting. I was hoping you'd share the results, thanks for that!

7 years ago
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it's funny to see rerolls in lv9-10, which means people feel so entitled when they level up, it's actually ok in their books to use an autojoin script to leech absolutely everything.

7 years ago
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Some were double wins, the rest them not even knowing what they have and entering for a pack they mostly or completely owned. Had the same problem on a recent similar pack for Nightmares from the Deep, where I really lucked out, as the lvl7 giveaway had over 30% ineligible wins the last time I checked (people owning at least 2 of the 3 games, despite the warning in the description to not enter if they do)—yet I managed to get only one ineligible winner for 3×3 packs.

7 years ago
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my first assumption is not autojoin scripts. i would assume they won it only a few hours prior and did not have the time to pull their prior entry personally. or possibly even won at the exact same ending time, seen that before also.

7 years ago
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Interesting numbers, thanks for sharing!

The number of rerolls in high levels is a bit surprising. I'll adopt the same approach and will post it in a somewhat similar experiment I'm doing with giveaways for The Beginner's Guide. I usually just check for unactivated and multiple wins, and it's clear that at least 2 of the 5 GAs won't have winners with those, but I guess I should also check if the winner already owns the game.

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Ownership is only problematic when you are not dealing with a base game but some expanded version from a Steam subID store, or even worse, a package. There are a few packages where owning all items from it reports it as owned, but those are way too rare.

7 years ago
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That's pretty cool.

7 years ago
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can i have one request?
can you add to the graph the users on SG by level? it would be interesting to see how that behaves accordingly ;)

7 years ago
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That is public information: https://www.steamgifts.com/stats/community/users (last graph).
Level 0 has probably the most amounts of inactive users, so there the column is most likely the lowest compared to the one shown.

7 years ago
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i know where to find it ;)
i meant if you can attach it to your graph, easier to see the trends

7 years ago
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Oh, that.
Yes, I had it there, but since level 0 entries top out at the 2000s, and the user base is over 1000000, even logarithmic scale shrunk the entries down to pixels. I tried to divide the user numbers by 10000, then 1000, but then the level 3+ part looked like a speck.
I also tried line charts, each line being a game through the levels, superimposed the user base line on it, but level 7+ became unreadable on a 1920×900 picture, because the lines were so on top of each other. Logarithmic scale helped there, but that pretty much showed what the posted picture already says.

7 years ago
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what about doing 2 y axis? make the left one for users only, and maybe log?
sadly, no one know the amount of inactive users (expect cg)

7 years ago
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Hm, add a line graph with user trends on it on a secondary?
Could be worth a shot, even if I had not-so-great experiences with Excel and dual-axis charts. I'll look into it when I get home.

7 years ago
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made some.

![](http://i.imgur.com/bI8G97o.jpg)
![](http://i.imgur.com/Jsq2plq.gif)
![](http://i.imgur.com/Mxvqj3q.jpg)
![](http://i.imgur.com/1DoWfdX.jpg)

it looks like princess has similar drops in users and entries.

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7 years ago
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The reason why isabella got more entry because it's been bundle way fewer times then the other ones.

Still good data.

How long was the GA anyways? data taken for giveaway that last 3 days?
I wonder how the entry will be like if it's a general game that no one have yet when GA only last 1 hour.

7 years ago
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From 0 to 10? Above 8 would be really shaky to get any entries. My level 0 flash drops have around 1/2 to 1/5 of entries the usual 3-day level 0 weekly bundle games receive.

I could have tested it out with the Sakura games I had, but now my stock is under 10 for them.

7 years ago
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Thanks for interesting info :)

7 years ago
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Thanks for the graphs :)

7 years ago
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That's interesting, nice!

7 years ago
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Is that mean, median or mode? tongue-in-cheek smart-ass question aside ...

Quite impressive research!

I think the impressive thing is the statistical reliability of the number of giveaways and the outcome of the research numbers. I do not think anyone has done a project like this to date.

While, I personally did not participate in your 'research', because I am not interested in HOGs. I would think that the statistical validity is not something to be worried about too much. I am, although, curious as to what the outcome would be with a different 'type' of game would be given this research format.

I was going to add you to my whitelist because of the extensive amount of work you have done - but I am changing my whitelist to include people whom I have won games from. Seeing as you have currently giveaway about 4k games, chances are, that I have won a game from you and you will be on my whitelist because of that too.

I am quite interested in seeing more of your research and learning of it's conclusions.

7 years ago
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I could have done something similar with VNs, but by the time I came up with this little experiment, I already went below 10 keys on my Anime Angles IndieGala pack.

7 years ago
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oh lord. statistics!

7 years ago
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