Estimated wins vs gifts won - i didn't win as much as estimated wins!

Let's break this down, and maybe get this as a sticky, might actually be a "good" idea.

So my gifts won are what i actually won, so far simple right?

"So what is estimated wins???"

Basically estimated wins is all your chances added up together. (this is simple... right?)

In example let's take this case: i entered 100 giveaways with 0.01 chance to win. Estimated wins in this case would be 1.00.

"So that means i must have won one giveaway!"

No it does not. You only get 1% chance to win every time. Meaning all in all... you still only had a 0.01 chance to win something. Estimated wins is just a big lie. Even if you do a giveaway with only 2 people over and over, you can still get nothing for over 100 times.

Look at it like rolling a six sided dice. Imagine that we need a 6. Our previous five rolls were 5,3,2,5,4... Is our lucky number going to be "6" at the next roll? It might be. But the chance to get that on the next roll is only 1/6. Giveaways work exactly the same.

Note: it's not always 0.01 but it varies on participants. If there is 1265 participants your chance to win will be 1/1265.

I hope this helps some people who have a hard time grasping what estimated wins is...