I was trying to figure out what might be the reason I fell in such a bad luck streak. I've spent every single point every day since my last win 4 1/2 months ago and the result is 0 wins so I came up with the idea that steamgifts has grown a lot lately, is that true?. As of now it's weird to see giveaways with less than 1.000 entries and most of them have 3.000 or more so that really lowers the chance to 0,1%, 0,03%, etc. I know this are gifts so no complaints at all, it's just that as anyone on this site I'm eager to grab some gifts and it always makes my day to get one ;) So just wondering all in all, has your win rate decreased dramatically lately?

9 years ago*

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It hasn't, because I rarely enter anymore.

9 years ago
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Wouldn't more users mean proportionately more giveaways, therefore an unchanged chance of winning?

Assuming the new users aren't all leechers, that is...

9 years ago
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Most new users are leeches. Thus your point is invalid :(

9 years ago
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+1

9 years ago
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There used to be a stats page showing the number of registrations and avg chance of winning (on public/group/private) giveaways, but it probably got removed to save some precious server resources.

Pro tip: the chance of winning a public giveaway remains, on average, pretty much the same with more members on the site.

9 years ago
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well its all about luck you can win once, twice or never... there are no tricks to win always
but of course more people less chance

9 years ago
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ofc there are tricks to win GiveAways! Enter proper GiveAways! ;p

9 years ago
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well its not a trick just logic

9 years ago
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@OP - you should probably read this

9 years ago
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(number of prizes / entries ) * 100 = your chance in %
so just join proper giveaways

9 years ago
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one hard puzzle... any hints op?

9 years ago
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Well actually I only enter games I'm interested in which I believe most people don't and just mass enter everything. It's not just about winning but since I will be getting a game, I want to like it and play it, and not have it in my library accumulating dust. So I tend to enter giveways for popular games, and those are harder to win I guess...

9 years ago
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it's not what I (we?) mean by entering proper GAs. The thing is that you're probably entering Public non-contributor or <30.01$ CV contributor GiveAways. Plus, as you mentioned you only enter for games you really really want, so probably excluding bundles it leaves public GAs for big titles. Doing so you have like 0,1 - 0,025% to win or less, so with that in mind with your entry number you're actually lucky to win this much. But there are plenty of ways you can greatly improve your chances.

  1. A lot of contributors don't want to give good games to "leechers" - meaning ppl who contributed nothing or only boosted their CV using bundle leftovers. You are at 30.00$ CV - it means that if you give away anything that is not on a bundle list, yu will pass the magic barrier of 30.01$ ;p And a lot of better games tend to have at least 30.01$ CV requirement. You can even give away few cents worth DLC and you'll have more opportunities right away.

  2. Be active! Your profile suggest that all you do is to go to main site, check GAs, enter and that's all. You don't comment, what prolly mean no forum activity, you're not in any SG-related group, meaning you're not visiting chats etc. And there are a lot of Private GAs happening both on forums and in groups. Even non-puzzle direct clicky on forums will get "only" up to few hundreds entries compared to minimum 1k+ entries in public GAs nowadays. If you solve puzzles there are even better chances to win - rarely a puzzle Ga will have mpore than 50 entries, a lot of times you will see +/- 20 entries which gives you 5% chance to win. Not to mention the fact that by being active you may find friends who will share their private friends-only GAs with you.

  3. Join Public Groups! There are quite a lot of public groups on SG. And even if they may have few thousands members it still gives you better chances to win than competing against few hundred thousands users. Public Group GAs tend to have less than 1000 entries, most of the times less than 500.

  4. Try to find a GiveAway group - it's the ultimate way to boost your winning chance at SG. There are loads of GiveAway groups on SG, of course each have it's own requirements, but in the end if you want to win more there is no better way. Such a groups gives you opportunity to enter tens of Group-only GAs, usually with max few tens of entrties, which boosts your chances to win dramatically.

All in all the thing is, the more active you are (on forums, chats, in groups, in puzzle sub-community) the biger chance you have to win. On the other hand writing "I don't win" topics on forums will not only not boost your chances in any way, but can even lower them (a lot of big contributors tend to auto-blacklist anyone making such topics, meaning you will be prohibited from entering their GiveAways).

9 years ago
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a lot of big contributors
when does one count as a big contributor? it sounds important .. I want to feel important too.

9 years ago
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how can anyone be more important than a queen? ;)

And I don't think there's a strict definition for a big contributor - generally what I thought by writing this are the people who continuously contribute to the community. They will not only create a GA if they have some leftover, but will continue to make GAs on a weekly/monthly basis. And as such people not only give a big chunk of this site's gifts they are usually also active community members, thus well aware of all community issues (leechers, cheaters, CV boosters etc) and thus will often try to prevent such a people from entering (by managing blacklist, setting non-bundle CV requirement, organizing their GAs into events/puzzles and so on and on).

I don't think one can make a strict definition of a "big contributor" based solely on CV, especially because of CV boosters. I'd rather call it a person with 1k or even less CV, but gained by puzzles, Public GAs, private gforum GAs etc, than a "certain someone" who farmed 5k CV creating GAs only for his "friends" who were paying for the games he was creating GAs for, or "other certain someone" that begs developers for free keys to "promote their game" and ten promotes it by creating big multi-copies GAs to boost his own CV ;)

9 years ago
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Your first sentence was the only right answer ;)

Man, I always want to create a nice hard puzzle, but I'm just too lazy. One day though ... One day I'll find the strength in me.

9 years ago
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Yeah I haven't won anything in the past two months (1235 entries). I even became more active in forums for private puzzle giveaways. No luck :(

9 years ago
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More users -> More entries -> Less chances
But...
More user -> More giveaways -> More chances

So... I don't know. You might be right.
But if you look carefully, though, you'll notice that most giveaway don't have 1000+ entries. Only, you need to enter bundled games giveaways.

9 years ago
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I feel like the amount of points that regenerate daily is too high. If people had to be more selective it would reduce the amount of entries on a given giveaway. I joined in the last 6 months and have never won.

9 years ago
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Public giveaways are hard to win. I just recently created a few private giveaways in the forums. The worst odds to win were 1:147. Average odds to win was 1:89. Look for stuff like that maybe?

9 years ago
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I haven't won a public giveaway in 8 months, so I would definitely have to say that Group and Private giveaways are the way to go. I rarely bother entering giveaways that don't have any CV requirement, as there will likely be too many entries to bother. The only exception is if its a wishlist game.

9 years ago
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