nothing much has been decided or said (that hasn’t been already said
I dunno man.
From what I read they signed a document in which Kim promises complete denuclearization. You may say we already knew that, but the past couple of weeks all the late night shows and news outlets such as CNN were taking the piss saying that NK had abandoned that idea, and that they would let American companies set up franchises in NK instead.
So I'm actually very surprised about the actual outcome.
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But there are no details, no hard promises in that document. The US agreed to halt joint military exercises in South Korea, which is a significant concession and catches US allies off guard, and only got a promise in return with little details and specifics. For example, here's an article from a conservative, Republican leaning news source critical of the summit: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-analysts-skeptical-of-north-korea-summit-results-lack-of-details-1528808231
So, it's possibly a good first step, but only the future will tell.
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Yeah, we definitely should wait until we hear all the details about what the deal exactly is. All I know is that complete denuclearization is way more than what I anticipated when only hearing negative news about the deal. What could be the worst counter-promise made by Trump?
Regarding the U.S. withdrawing from South Korea, I quite honestly think that's a good thing. I don't know many Koreans who are happy with U.S. military wandering around Itaewon. Also, who ever came up with the brilliant idea to do military exercises at the North Korean border only to further aggravate an already butt-hurt regime? It's like kicking a barking dog in the face, I would totally advise against it lol.
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Well, the US isn't actually withdrawing, at least at present. They're just stopping war games in the region. And the cessation of war games in the region actually caught US allies like South Korea and Japan by surprise. I can't speak for the local people, but the governments were actually happy to have the US military there to offer protection. Now, those allies aren't sure if the cessation of war games is just something to pacify North Korea, or if it's indicative of a US-centric foreign policy which could result in the US completely pulling out of the region - and, if so, who will move in to fill that void? China? Russia?
So the immediate effect is confusion among US allies in the region. And I'm not saying that the cessation of wargames in a bad thing, but it could have been done in a much better way than a surprise announcement that caught US allies (and US military) by surprise and the future of the region in doubt.
I mean, I'd love for denuclearization to occur. But we're still a long way away from that. And, as recent history has shown us, sometimes you may achieve that with an international treaty (as with Iran) only for someone new to come along and mess the whole thing up.
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I can only agree with what you said about the U.S.' way of announcing what their plans are to their allies is scummy to say the least.
However, I highly doubt that U.S.' withdrawal would mean that China or Russia are going to meddle with SK and Japan. We are way beyond that point. They may meddle with NK and other countries in the region, but they could do that already if they wanted whether the U.S. army is there or not.
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Sorry, I didn't meant to imply that they would meddle. Just that if the US pulled out, and US allies lost the protection that the stationed US military offered, then China or Russia could move in to the region and take their place. Kind of a, "Hey, we see the US has abandoned you and left you defenseless. But don't worry, we would be more than happy to offer you our protection," situation. US withdrawal could leave a power vacuum that China or Russia would be more than happy to fill, giving them more sway in the region and converting those US allies to their allies.
I think we're all hoping for a positive outcome. But the way it has been conducted so far seems to ignore the complexities and ramifications of international diplomacy.
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LOL - not surprised at all - why, because NK has promised this soo many times before - that is why it is nothing new and nothing concrete has been written down.
https://www.wired.com/story/north-korea-summit-denuclearize-history/
yep we all wish it to happen, just as we did the many many times before - but all that has really happened at the moment is that they have signed a document and President Trump has agreed, on the basis of just that signing, to halt the war game drills - without informing SK that he was going to do it !
what really happened is that the NK leader managed to pull off a major PR coup in getting a sitting US president to come and have lunch with him (and allow Trump to mention the nice beaches that he could build an apartement on - which was really funny at least), and get all the press around the world to show it; and thus legitimise the standing of a dictator who openly tortured Americans who went to NK and his own people in still open camps - so on that front, yeah kudos to him :P
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I totally understand your concern. It having been going on for decades makes it plausible that this is yet another North Korean ruse. I hope this time it really is different, as you said yourself we all do.
Maybe I'm too naive, but I like to believe that Kim is shitting his pants that an even more unpredictable man is the leader of the world's biggest superpower LOL.
and thus legitimise the standing of a dictator who openly tortured Americans who went to NK and his own people in still open camps
Yeah, this is the biggest problem isn't it. But when you long for world peace, I think sometimes you have to let bygones be bygones. Look what happened in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, when 'we' thought we knew better and the leader should be disposed of. Those countries have gone to proper shit, honestly it's such a sad sight. I don't know if that's a thing 'we' should be repeating with NK.
When peace is established and people are united, I'm sure leaders such as Kim will eventually be disposed off internally in a natural way. Similar to how Tunisia's revolution went, which had a 'modest' ( what a fucked up thing to say, but it's true) death toll of 300 people.
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Won't happen. You KNOW our illustrious moron in charge will screw it up.
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Tbf to Trump, he's got further than any President has since Clinton.
I just hope Trump isn't going into the talks with the same disingenuous intentions that Clinton had which was agreeing a deal while hoping that the North Korean govt collapses before the US has to actually fulfil its end of the bargain.
Whatever the result of the talks, it certainly won't be worse than the aftermath of Clinton's talks - decades of hostilities and a nuclear armed North Korea.
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"You guys do what we want now and until the end of the century, and we'll deposit $300 billion per year into your personal bank account starting in 2351."
Kim Jong-Un has been made to believe he's some kind of god, so he thinks, "ok... I'll play the long game..."
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Kim Jong-un was educated in Switzerland and was so paranoid about his survival he had his uncle, and his father's right-hand man, executed along with his older half-brother.
Jong-un maybe many things, but he doesn't believe he is some sort of god. He's just a dictator looking to preserve and manage his power.
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Hmm. I didn't know that. Dealing with a paranoid and powerful person really isn't optimal. Certainly, the ruling family and/or the state present the image to their public that the Kim family are sort of akin to gods.
By the way, a question on naming in Korean, since you said you are living there: Jong-Un is his first name, right? His father's first name was Jong-Il, his father's was Il-Sung...
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To be fair, previous Presidents didn't want to legitimize Kim by meeting with him. By meeting with Kim, Trump legitimized his path to this meeting - sending the message that building a nuclear arsenal and threatening the world (while your people are supposedly starving) will get you a meeting with the President of the US.
I hope that these talks lead to a positive outcome, but there was a legit reason for why previous Presidents refused to meet with North Korea.
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To be fair, the legitimize Kim argument was always seen as complete nonsense by anyone with even a cursory understanding of the region.
In fact, the argument is seen as a bizarre form of American nationalism - the idea that simply meeting a US president confers some special form of legitimacy and acceptance by the 96% of the world who aren't US citizens.
Was Kim Jong-il legitimized when Bill Clinton met him? I'd suggest not - but granted Bill was an ex-President then.
How about Hosni Mubarak when he met Obama? Or Suharto meeting Reagan? Or George W. Bush's prostrating himself over Saud Prince Abdullah and the extended Bin Laden family after 9/11?
Kim, and his father, and his grandfather, were already 'legitimized' by the recognition of other countries - US non-recognition was merely seen as a domestic political device for the US to preach about upholding values, etc.
The path to this meeting was not the nuclear programme - that started before Kim Jong-un was even born, and in fact the only reason that the nuclear arsenal exists today is because Bill Clinton reneged on the deal he agreed with Jong-un's father, Kim Jong-il (nobody complained that the Clinton legitimized the Kim Jong-il regime by negotiating with them). Indeed the US itself, in the brutal deposing of its former ally, Iraq and Saddam Hussein, over non-existent WMDs highlighted the need for an insurance policy for US friends and enemies the world over.
The reality is that, with the current South Korean President, there is a unique window of opportunity to push inter-Korean relations and recognise the limited reforms that the North has made, especially over the last decade.
The US administration really had two choices, deal with North Korea as it actually is, or carry on with the same sanctions and contain strategy which can only continue to fail miserably because of China's non-compliance.
It is seen as a rather ridiculously hypocritical point as to not legitimise North Korea, yet legitimise Iran, Saudi Arabia, Uzbekistan, Pinochet's Chile, all South Korean's presidents before 1988, etc.
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Perhaps you're right. I'm not an expert on the region, but I've heard this argument made by people who are. That Kim and his father were working to have just such a meeting, to illustrate and recognize their power and world reach. There was certainly a big deal made about the recent meeting, particularly in the events leading up to it.
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If that was the case, then why has the media coverage of the meeting been so lob-sided?
It has been the biggest story in the Western media, and yet the coverage has been much more low-key in the North.
Also, you deeply misunderstand North Korea if you think they are interested in projecting "world reach" - in fact, the founding ideology of North Korea, even beyond any form of communism, is "Juche" meaning self-reliance/self-sufficiency - the idea that North Korea does not need the outside world for anything.
FWIW, I'm not criticising you in any way, but the Western media are generally woefully ignorant of / or deeply disingenuous about North Korea.
How do I know? Well for a start, I live in South Korea - my wife's family are from North Korea. Secondly, I work for one of Korea's biggest companies, we used to do small-scale production in North Korea and we also get regular briefings on North Korea from the Korean govt. Thirdly, I have myself been a correspondent on North Korea for national radio back in the UK.
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I think there is a big difference between North Korea as a whole, and the North Korean people, and Kim Jong Un and his father. The overall ideology may be one of self-reliance, but Kim and his father strike me as egomaniacs (as does Trump), and as such they seek world recognition - they want everyone to recognize how awesome they are. And being respected and recognized as a world leader seems one of Kim's main goals. Kim wants to hear how great he is, just like Trump does (it's why Trump, breaking with tradition, has skipped the last two White House Corespondents dinners, where people joke about the President, in favor of attending a rally where his fans cheer and applaud for him).
I don't speak Korean, but my understanding is that the North Korean newspaper today called the meeting "historic", said Trump agreed to Kim's demands to halt military exercises with South Korea, and suggested that Trump would also lift sanctions as negotiations continued. In other words, Kim just met with the leader of one of the most powerful countries in the world and got Trump to agree to his demands and is likely to make further gains in the future - that seems like a pretty big publicity piece for Kim.
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His father is dead, but he was an egomaniac - hence the whole personality cult he built around himself - that he was amazing at everything, etc.
Kim Jong-un has done nothing of the sort. In fact, he has dramatically scaled back the personality cult propaganda and even enacted some previously inconceivable reforms.
Additionally, Kim Jong-un has placed much more emphasis than either his father or grandfather on economic development.
Hence the export of North Korean labour - something that his father would have been very, very reluctant to even contemplate.
Ultimately, stories in the Korean media are to be dismissed as mere propaganda - just like previous stories like how mosquitoes were American biological weapons, for example.
As for meeting one of the most powerful leaders in the world, again you seem to miss the point.
He meets Xi Jinping regularly, and I don't how anyone who wouldn't class Xi as one of the world's most powerful leaders (I'd argue that given he now has the ability to stay in office for life, and the control he has over China - he's probably THE most powerful leader - whereas Trump is the leader of the most powerful nation).
The meeting WAS historic. To claim otherwise is nonsensical. The military exercises are largely irrelevant - little more than a show of force. Even more so when you consider that North Korea's conventional military is not only woefully underpowered and that such actions do absolutely nothing to further peace on the peninsula.
As for the sanctions - it's not within Trump's power, or any individual leader's power - to remove the sanctions, the removal of sanctions would have to be agreed by the UN security council and even having such a motion is, for now at least, a long way off.
As for publicity piece, you realise that only state media exists in North Korea, right?
So he can have as many publicity pieces as he likes - his father was very fond of them.
I'd be much more concerned about the repeated portrayal of North Korea as a grave threat to world peace, that has been happening in the Western media for decades, as opposed to the domestic propaganda in Pyongyang.
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I'd be much more concerned about the repeated portrayal of North Korea as a grave threat to world peace... in the Western media
Well, when you focus your efforts on building up a nuclear arsenal, creating an inter-continental ballistic missile program, and televise images and videos of those missiles bombing the United States...
You may be the nicest guy in the world, but if you keep showing me pictures of your growing number of weapons and threatening to kill me, I'm going to view you as a grave threat.
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Or you could literally, like the US or Russia has done, arm regimes and dictators, act all friendly with them then fall out with those same dictators, invade their countries, kill them and leave those countries in complete chaos for decades.
What's worse? Hundreds of thousands of people actually dead like in Iraq (Saddam was armed by the US and UK), Afghanistan (the Taliban were armed by the CIA), Syria (Russia's own disaster), Libya (in which France conned the US into to doing its dirty work) - or a few propaganda cartoons and a few missile tests with low success rates.....
Again, you have to look at this from both sides.
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Sounds like a party. I'll bring the astronaut ice cream. ^^
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As someone actually living in Korea, I'd be more than happy for reasonable meeting concluding with an agreement to pursue closer ties in the future. Small steps.
Ideally, I'd love to see an actual peace treaty between North and South Korea - the current armistice means that technically the two countries are still at war - meaning that, at the very least, economic ties between the two countries can continue to improve, plus the mandatory military service in both countries can be phased out.
It's really hard to underestimate just how momentous the occasion is though - and hopefully, with tomorrow being a holiday here for the local elections, everyone will have something to celebrate.
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Trump would get rid of US army bases in a heartbeat - the hawks in Washington are desperate not to lose them though because of the strategic importance with regards to containing China. It's also important to remember that there is near unanimity among Korean politicians that the US bases should be stationed here.
The biggest obstacle to reunification in inter-Korean relations, notably the question of how any proposed reunification would actually work.
South Korea (twice the size in terms of population and massively richer) would not accept reunification on the basis that any of the North's political system was retained. North Korea, especially the elite, would not want reunification to be simply being absorbed into the South's existing systems.
Reunification is, at best, a decade or so away and will probably have to take the form of a federation at first.
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Here in North America, news people are all saying that Trump is getting played and that just meeting "with the U.S. President" gives Kim Jong-Un legitimacy that Trump shouldn't have allowed him... but that seems awfully cynical. Surely, the beginning of some talking is better than isolation and lobbing insults through TV and speeches. Surely, it's at least a start.
They also say that if all that happens is that the two "get to know each other" without Trump coming out of it with anything in particular, it's a win for Kim and a big failure. But again, that seems awfully pessimistic. Baby steps. North Korea is sort of like a hostage situation. You have to talk them down slowly and gradually, maybe.
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You have to remember that for around 75 years North Korea has provided a reason for the US military presence in both South Korea and Japan with bases and facilities that are within close proximity to the real rival of the US, China.
So there has been an awful lot of mileage in portraying the North as a huge threat when in reality it simply isn't.
This is a win-win for both Kim and Trump, imo.
Kim because he gets the kudos of meeting a US President and Trump because he can now say he got further with the North than any other US President.
If you define the end goal of the Korean peninsula crisis as Korean reunification, then actually that won't necessarily be in the interest of the US, Japan, or even, perhaps, China.
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The issue with legitimizing Kim is that it legitimizes his path to this meeting - that building up a nuclear arsenal and threatening the world will get you a meeting with the President of the US. That is obviously not a course you want to encourage others to take.
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I was rather surprised to not see a thread about this historic event.
My guess it is because this is a gaming forum.
About video games.
And gifting video games.
And we usually talk about video games and gifting video games. Maybe sometimes about similar nerdy and geeky stuff.
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Papers were signed, so results of those papers coming in the following days.
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A signature means nothing to him anymore. On the plane a few hours later, in a tweet :
"Based on the rictus on Rocket Man's face all along, I decide to revoke the agreement that I didn't planned to observe anyway. The trickster tricked ! Who has the biggest rictus now ? Trump : 1000. G7 and Kim : 0 !
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump)"
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It's been on livestream here (singapore) and our news stations won't stop talking about it.
Roads are closed around the area and whatnot.
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The good news is that it's around the Sentosa area (a touristy small island at the south of Singapore).
And maybe some parts of the central business district, so people who don't normally go there aren't affected.
For those who travel to that area, good luck :d
I can only hope it's a fruitful talk.
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Geopolitics is an incredibly complicated and multilayered thing. It's really not a good idea to dig too deep into these things unless you're an expert, which is unlikely. I am also not an expert, but I am currently studying these things so I can give my 2 cents here. I see a lot of people cheering for Trump like this deal will bring world peace and I see a lot of people hoping he fails because they don't like him. Sure, past attempts at denuclearization with North Korea have failed, but this attempt isn't over yet, so it's too soon to say Trump has failed. What we need Trump to do is to get Kim Jong-Un to sign an actual legally binding document , and if possible, unlike the one in Iran, which was technically legally binding, but gave Iran way too much leeway and had little to no oversight. Basically we need hard proof that he chopped up these nukes and can't make new ones. Same with Iran, hope he re-negotiates that deal.
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actual legally binding document
There is no such thing. There is no "power" above DPRK to enforce anything upon them. Even coallitions, alliances and non-aggression pacts are being broken left and right, as the only possible negative outcome is embargo, assuming they don't get invaded, but even if legally they'd expose themselves to that, I doubt US would respect that part either, not to mention that DPRK wouldn't give a damn anyway.
Yes, it is complicated, and no sort of agreement will fix that, unless one will be able to enforce their rules upon another, and that is not going to happen, neither US over DPRK, nor the other way.
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Yes, "legally binding" is kinda pointless. Even if there's a clause agreed upon by, say, the UN, the DPRK is still a sovereign state. What we can hope for is that the USA and China can pressure the DPRK enough for them to compromise and improve their human rights conditions. A lot of people say that a slow transition to a China-like state capitalism might be a good enough compromise. It could happen, because apparently China has stopped its gas trade with the DPRK and it also wants its refugee camps at the border closed. I see no reason for it not to happen, everyone wants that regime to change, even DPRK's "allies", if they can be called that, lol.
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nuclear winter is a myth, dont expect apocalypse, since the development of nuclear bombs there were more than 2.5k nuclear tests until 1998, several were huge hydrogen bombs, not even to mention the few nuclear plant catastrophes like Lucerns reactor incident in Switzerland, the many in US, many in USSR and Russia like Chernobyl, or the recent Fukusima one, actually there were nearly a dozens full or partial reactor meltdown.
If you really want a classic apocalypse, which makes humanity to the edge of exctinction the only possible one (which predictable with exact datum) might be at 13th april 2036 but it will be clear after 2029 only that it will be actually dangerous and create an extinction level event.
If you not waiting for a classic apocalypse, well, its already happening. According to our current knowledge Venus was a paradise several millions years ago and guess what turned it to a hell? yes, global warming:-) Not proved, not unproved, but it might affected by a "intelligent specie"
Other alternative is the eruption of Campi Flegri, which under Naples in Europe, its activity increasing since the 60s and the currently most dangerous supervulcano for eruption. It actually wont kill humanity, just about 95%+ of them and while huge part of lucky europeans will have a relalitve fast death, rest of the world will face a long famine and chaos.
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Some people will hope for failure no matter who is in power as long as it's not their person. Some Democrats wanted Hillary to lose because she defeated Bernie in the primaries. Blind loyalty, spite, and partisanship are terrible self-destructive behaviors that we are way too susceptible to. And unfortunately they seem to be growing and getting stronger.
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Trump is a complete idiot. He is obviously unintelligent (no, he is not just acting like he's dumb, he actually is ^^). He has very questionable views on the world. He is clearly hurting the world, not only in environmental issues. He is clearly not fit for his job and I still believe there is a very real chance he will get impeached - but if he can truly pull this off and get North Korea to denuclearize (and maybe even achieve a united Korea in the end), then I am the first to admit that he (finally) did something right and deserves some praise for that.
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it is an illusion. denuclearization of nk (which wont make china happy in any way possible) would maybe be worth for them in exchange of the cancellation of economic sanctions and the end of the "economic war" from the u.s.a. side. but that would be no more than a fig leaf as the main impediment for reconciliation between the two regions is the u.s.a. presence in sk, and a military disengagement from the region is very unlikely. considering the part of the agreement that was made public this seems more like a unconditional surrender from NK. pretty sure kim was made "an offer he can't refuse"...
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Do you think so? I think China will be more than happy seeing American troops GONE from that region, which I assume would be part of the deal. Also I highly doubt China were happy with having North Korea as a nuclear power. They know he's crazy. They don't like him either. It's just that they didn't want even more U.S. influence in that region.
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the u.s.a. ar far more crazier. thats why it would be best for china interest to keep nk armed, to alternative would be to have the whole region as an u.s.a asset. afaik u.s.a military disengagement from sk was not part of the agreement, sk its too important for them.
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Not sure how you conclude Kim played Trump. He might not be serious about his promises - certainly the history of his family would suggest that, but Trump hasn't given him anything. He hasn't made any real concessions yet, and he's said at every point in the process that he hopes Kim is being genuine, but he acknowledges it might not be the case. If Kim backs out of his commitments or tries to play games, we just go back to way things were up until this week. We don't lose anything, but just maybe we gain some peace and stability in the region.
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I was rather surprised to not see a thread about this historic event. Here is hoping for peace on the Korean peninsula
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