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The Odds Of You Winning A Game Today

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xpygmy

Hello,
I am just doing this as fun and I am going to try and post the odds every day as a bit of fun. I know that you can see these results elsewhere but I want to post some extra stuff for you ;)

These are only the chances of winning publicly, not in a group comp or a private comp

January 5th 2012:
0.29% of you winning today
To win a game today, you need to enter to win a gift 344.82758620689655172413793103448 times

January 6th 2012:
0.33% of you winning today
To win a game today, you need to enter to win a gift 303.0303030303030303030303030303 times (bigger odds today :D)

Feel free to ask if you want to know more info.

13 years ago*

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58 Comments
ET3D

The calculation is off. You're never guaranteed a win.
If the chance of winning is 0.3% (and is constant across giveaways), you need 231 entries to have a 50% chance to win, 462 entries to have a 75% chance of winning, 767 entries to have a 90% chance of winning, and 1533 entries to have a 99% chance of winning.

Edit: The other thing that looks wrong to me is that the statistics for the current day. Look at previous days, all the values are between 0.1% and 0.2%. Current day is typically 0.3%+. My guess is that something is wrong because the day is incomplete.

Second edit: So let me repeat the above calculation with a more reasonable value, 0.15%: 462 entries for 50%, 924 entries for 75%, 1534 for 90%, 3068 entries for 99%.

13 years ago
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likwitsnake

Melvin!

13 years ago
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Closed 13 years ago by xpygmy.