how much gifts do you usualy win?

yes i knew that one already, but if you compare this site to sc, you have a waaaay bigger chance to win over here :)

Wait, not sure if sarcasm or you really are serious. Isn't more entries = a higher chance to win ?

Okay you math aficionados so how do you explain the odds for a particular participant of this giveaway for example. I did the maths, so the chance of winning as much as this are 1.038 e-30 (yes, that's 30 zero's before). Not bad for a 2 month old, 14 win account with 3700 entries (which is a feat in itself). OK,so he's a VERY lucky bugger, but I can find so many accounts with similar scores in less than 2 min just by glaring at the winners section. Haxor????

sorry forgot to add that one xD

+1 0, been here 3 yrs..

That's 0.05543237249856 per day!

:((((((((

I thought that too, but it appears the OP wants to know if using this website is a sure way of winning on a regular basis.. which they would be incorrect in thinking!

Sorry to hear that, it's kind of not fair but that's how random works.

As far as I know steamgifts, statistics and math:

• Everybody in each giveaway has an equal change of winning, comments don't increase the chance although it's nice to thank the OP for the opportunity.

• For a giveaway with 1.000 entries you have an 1/1000 chance of winning which is 0.001%. (But not every giveaway has 1000 entries, this is just for the sake of this example)

• 2 years ago, people said that the average winning rate was a game each 300 entries. That would mean rolling the 0.001% dice 300 times. I don't know how statistics work in this case but it's higher than one giveaway with 300 chances 1*300/1000.

But here's the catch about statistics:

• They have a wild nature, they're not orderly.

When you say 50% winning chance most people will assume out of 2 tries you win 1, and out of 4 tries you win 2. Though this is not how it works, there's a fair chance you will either win 2 of 2 or 0 of 2, although the 1 out of 2 chance is higher that doesn't mean the other 2 won't happen, they're not "rare", they happen on daily basis.

Winning 0/4 , 1/4/, 3/4 or even 4/4 are also to be expected even if the winning chance is 50%, so yeah, expect those bad luck things to happen because they will happen, it's normal. What really makes the 50% winning ratio 50% is that when you try 10.000 times the winning rate would be somewhere near 50%, hardly ever actual 50%, but it will be somewhere like 52%, 53%, 47%, 56%, 42%. You've got to get to millions for it to get closer to 50%.

With a 50% win rate, you can win 0 times out of 5 tries. And that's not a 1 in a million chance, it's not even 1 in a 1000, it happens.

100 outcomes 50% (1st try) + (50 50% (2nd try)) + (25 50% (3nd try)) + (12.5 50% (4nd try)) + (6.25 50% (4nd try)) + (3.125 50% (5nd try)) = 50 + 25 + 12.5 + 6.25 + 3.125 + 1.5625 = 98,4375% chance winning at least once out of 5 tries. So you have a 2% chance of getting 0/5, apply the wild nature of stats to that and you can get 0/5 even the first try or never get it after 200 tries. What makes it 2% is that out of way many tries you'll always end up with a number close to 2%.

The numbers may be wild, but there is still a science behind it. Poker is said to be 80% math and 20% luck although it's a fully statistics game. And there's always the question: If poker really is a game of luck, why is it that there are always so many familiar faces at the top ? although I doubt you can use that on steamgifts, it's just FYI.

In that example with 50% winning ratio I gave you, it doesn't mean you'll win 50% of the time, nor that you'll lose 50% of the time, you can either have good luck, or bad luck, it happens to all of us at certain points in our lifes, that's the statistics wild nature, you can either beat the odds, or be beaten by the odds.

Sure, the odds in steamgifts are different, but I hope this gives you some confort, I hope you win something soon.

+1

From the 8 games I won in May, only 1 was from a group, and 2 had a level restriction but not high levels (1+ & 3+)

I made a lot of friends and participate in the forum, that's how I win most of my games.

I was idling in this thread waiting on you; so predictable. Less typing more winning please (ง︡'-'︠)ง