I'm pretty sure u will win more if you stop joining those better games and join something less :))
So IMHO i feel that u are pretty lucky to win those
Comment has been collapsed.
Well i entering on games i wanna play or try at least, why should i enter on games i dont like :)
pretty lucky? in 6 years this? Not in my point
Ok games are good but not to 6 years of time (20 december 6 years), rather quality than quantity but this is... hm
i won DS3 after 1 year of totally nothing, idk but i cant feel anything like luck
Comment has been collapsed.
exactly my point, u join those u like which have more entries or harder to come by hence to win it is luck itself, for 6 years.
But still at least you won it right ;)
You should be happy with it already ^^
Comment has been collapsed.
+1 Lots of great people in that group. It was my first group on SG :)
Comment has been collapsed.
Yeah, I was about to give the same advice! =)
Welcome, don't rush and everything will be awesome =P
Comment has been collapsed.
Ah, I didn't know about that part. By the time it was founded, I already had more than 7 wins.
Comment has been collapsed.
I actually refrain from joining Unlucky 7 as I have to leave the group after winning 7 feels kind of sad to me and I believe with time 7 is very quite achievable. For someone who does not choose what they win, 7 is easy to get to imo. I do choose what I win so it takes longer, i am not a lucky person especially irl but still I do not believe 7 is beyond the reach in 1yr. I am glad it takes 3 months to reach 6 but I will sad to leave the group once I reach 7. Still its a great group to consider. :D
Cheers~
Comment has been collapsed.
Cruse, you should definitely join, as you can remain after 8 wins as a giver & there are also GAs that allow givers to enter! It's a neat little group and I'm glad to be there. Hoping to win my 8th GA soon as I've (almost) reached the required lvl 3 to stay as a giver.
Comment has been collapsed.
I rarely do group giveaways though. I am intending to do some soon but most of the time I tried to make it public and higher lvl. Hmm. I'll certainly give it a thought. Even if I get pass my 7/8th win as a gifter. Thank you for sharing that info and Best of Luck for your next win. :D
Comment has been collapsed.
Sound advice.
Unlucky 7 is a great group for new people.
I plan on rejoining to give back the 7 wins I got.
Also puzzles and trains have great GAs with much better odds than the front page.
Comment has been collapsed.
I won like 3 games in the past few months, but it's never been any of the ones you see in the list. You need to look around and hunt down groups that do giveaways or find hidden giveaways in the description of the ones in the list. It's a good way to increase your chances of winning a game! Now, idk about Unlucky 7 there, but I'm looking to join it to get a little pick me up, so I'd recommend giving that a shot. Just stay on the prowl and hunt.
Comment has been collapsed.
Well, if you had won something in your first week, I would consider you really lucky, as there are lots of players here! And about the odds, I remember someone having won nothing, when his chance should have been 100%, so... Just be patient, a winning will arrive.
In order to increase your chances, I suggest:
Good luck, and welcome to SG!
Comment has been collapsed.
Not winning with having a 100% chance is impossible. Losing when having odds above 50% is generally called being unlucky.
Comment has been collapsed.
I know the math ;) I only report you something that happened at the end of the latest community train, as a comparison to your situation... That said, I'm not really sure how the stats of SG work, but I don't really care. If I win something I want, I'm happy.
Comment has been collapsed.
The thing is, the chance of winning is still independent for each giveaway. So even if the stats page shows you 100%, it doesn't guarantee a win.
With many giveaways anding on the same day, your probability can be really close to 100%, but it can be dozens or hundreds GA with several % chance each. And you can get lucky or unlucky in any of those, resulting in multiple, or no wins.
The community train was an extreme case as there where almost 5000 GA ending on the same day.
Comment has been collapsed.
Not winning with having a 100% chance is impossible. Losing when having odds above 50% is generally called being unlucky.
I've done both, but I'm famous for being "unlucky."
"Normally," a first win can be expected after three months and/or 3000 entries. You still have a ways to go, yet.
Comment has been collapsed.
Welcome! The odds of winning a public giveaway are very slim, especially at lower levels. I suggest looking around in the forums a bit, a little effort goes a long way :]
Also as BHTrellis188 mentioned there is the Unlucky 7 group, but you must have either (a) been registered on the site for more than 7 weeks or (b) made at least 7 giveaways in order to join that group. In the meantime you could check out the Playing Appreciated group; their main rule is that winners have to play the game within 1 month of winning. Since you haven't won anything, joining via "Option 1" playing a won game is not an option but you can offer to join via "Option 2" give a game you want somebody to play through the group
Comment has been collapsed.
https://www.steamgifts.com/discussions/group-recruitment
Use that forum to look for groups, sync your account on this website and then go here. That will show you all the giveaways that are group only. You will have a higher chance of winning if you enter just those with points. There are many public groups with little or no requirements.
Comment has been collapsed.
As others have said, be patient. It took me a long time before I won anything. Join Unlucky 7 and Playing Appreciated, those groups are how I got my first wins.
And, if you can, contribute with your own giveaways. Giving away games and going up in level opens up many more giveaways, and greatly increases your chances.
Anyway, welcome to the site. :)
Comment has been collapsed.
Like everyone says you have to be patient. The stats are only showing you the odds, but you could have a 90% chance and still not win.
Your best chance are to go through the forum to find the invite only GA, also that might be a good place to find great oods.
Good luck and welcome to SteamGift:)
Comment has been collapsed.
Patience is your best friend, it's legit in case you had any doubts :D You have been given some good advice already, Unlucky 7 and Playing Appreciated are obvious choices for newcomers, hunt also for private giveaways/trains and puzzles as they typically have less entries, and yes, leveling up will drastically increase your odds.
I was lucky enough myself to win a game (and a decent one at that) in my very first hour or so on Steamgifts, but needless to say it doesn't happen very often.
Comment has been collapsed.
i only started to win (Somehow) when i joined Unlucky 7 & Playing Appreciated......................
my luck is below average and according to steam gifts i should win more often...................
Comment has been collapsed.
I think it took like 3 months to win something, and that was an invite-only puzzle GA. Then won a LOT group GAs (were in a bundle group, basically "trading with ratio") but my first public win was ... it seems was 10 months after my registration :D
But don't worry about stuff like not winning 50% GAs. It sounds really unlucky that "but I had half the chance, how unlucky I am, aaaaargh" while for example 50% mortality rate with a disease means it's devastating and you would likely want to avoid it as much as possible. Similarly, 1/10 sounds great in SG, but thinking about it, by chance 10 giveaways of those are needed to win one.
Try to enter stuff (in priority) you want, then if you win, it will be always something worthwhile! It's so bad to read comments about people feel scammed because they only win shit (they entered) and then complain about it...
Comment has been collapsed.
I don't care about the game, just want those +1's on steam haha
Thanks for the advice!
Comment has been collapsed.
After my first day, I noticed that joining those wasn't going to grant me key, hence why I only enter group ones now!
Comment has been collapsed.
Definitely check the forums. There are lots of private giveaways that have good odds of winning. That said, don't expect to win. You can go weeks without winning and then suddenly get 5 in a week. I genuinely just look at this site as a place to kill time and have fun, not really a place where I expect to actually get anything. Those are just happy bonuses.
Comment has been collapsed.
I might have to re-evaluate the way I think about this site, thanks!
Comment has been collapsed.
To anyone saying; Just give it time, I didn't win untill ...
Statistically, I should've already won 2.08 games. So that's why I'm stating that I'm unlucky.
Comment has been collapsed.
Nobody isn't saying you aren't unlucky, but rather that it is not uncommon to be unlucky here. I was unlucky until I became lucky, and I expect to become unlucky again eventually. That's the nature of statistics (for better or worse)
Comment has been collapsed.
It's exactly as common to be lucky as it is to be unlucky.
Comment has been collapsed.
Lol, stats are just there for you to feel bad, no chance in hell you would get those odds of winning as it states there in your first week. I got my first win in a month after joining and it was mass giveaway with 2000 keys. After that i won most of my wins from groups, private giveaways and people who were kind enough to add me to their Whitelists. Winning low-level public giveaways is almost impossible, too many participants in there to have decent chances. If you want to change your luck a bit i suggest to share some games to raise your level and there is a lot of groups that recruit from time to time on this forum. You can apply for Unlucky 7 group - they are pretty great for newcomers.
Comment has been collapsed.
Those stats are real. Those were my odds. I was just unlucky and if "luck' wasn't a thing, I would've won 2.08 games already.
Comment has been collapsed.
No its not, in a public giveaway of popular game with lets say 1500 entries your chances of winning will be 0.07 % with probability of losing 99.93%. And low-level giveaways have more entries, 5000-6000 easily, your chances will be even more microscopic. With those kind of odds its not about luck at all.
Comment has been collapsed.
They are real. I only enter 1,2 P giveaways, group giveaways or giveaways with big batches. That day I entered over 600 giveaways with some having only 10-20 entries. Most having 200-300. The odds stack up. Those were my odds and I was unlucky. No doubt in that.
Comment has been collapsed.
Thanks, I will need it as it seems! Have fun with steamgifts and sorry for arguing. I seem to be quite the annoying person haha
Comment has been collapsed.
There is no probability on Luck imo. I consider myself always down on luck. Never won any form of lottery in real life not even the smallest winnings and those random contests you fill up in real life. However, my luck is different for games giveaway imo. I may not always win big games but I do with from against thousands of odds to not winning against 5 on SteamGifts. Hahaha
I am still generally glad and happy with any of my wins anywhere though, a win is a gain, no matter big or small, cheap or expensive gifts. :D
Comment has been collapsed.
Lucky = having the odds against you, still winning
Unlucky = having the odds with you, losing.
Ofc there's no probability on luck but that's just not in the scope of the subject :)
And I also think your last sentence is true af
Comment has been collapsed.
In real life, I have won nothing. I basically do not get my way in many things in life nothing I plan or try works out. Just plain unlucky you'll say, however, I am grateful just being alive each day. Comparing to others that even struggle to live each day.
I've thought was really bad not winning for more than a month, even a 5 person giveaway hahaha But I have won so many other games before in other places. My steam was built with 90% won games previously. I am unlucky overall but I still win. Knowing a little programming as I studied IT in school previously.
The probability might stat to be winning at 0.1% but its always a new 0.1% if the algorithm here is of a random seed generator as I would think it is. No matter how hard you try or think the probability and luck remains the same. What you do is getting a higher level to minimise the gap of winning but the winning odds is always constant. No matter if is a 20% with 5 users or 0.1% with 1000 users.
There are people that uses probability for Lottery but was it successful? I doubt because the probability of luck is constant. You'll win when you win. Unless its rigged then you take away that constant.
As you mentioned, no matter if you are Lucky or unLucky there are always odds against you. Fill your Luck jar with Love and May you receive what you hope for. ;) Cheers~
Comment has been collapsed.
But if you start to add odds (P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)), you can get to situations where your luck of winning A game that day was higher than 50% thus not getting it would make you unlucky.
Ex. Enter 50 giveaways with 50 entries in one day
In the screenshot, the calculation which reveals that you have a 63.5% chance of winning AT least 1 game. If you'd lose at that point, you'd be considered unlucky.
Comment has been collapsed.
That is what I am saying. Even if you enter 50 the odds of winning is the same. Especially a Random seed generator as basically 50x your luck starts from 0. The generator is not accumulative like the stats show. Thus the stats is just a reference and not an indication of your luck.
For eg. I have entered a giveaway with 5 entry and not win. My highest number of entrants for a gift i won is 737 at lvl 2. That covers quite a large group as the gift was pretty nice Shiness and its 30P. I usually use all my points and I enter games on my wishlist 1st meaning I enter the same game/gift multiple times a day and spend all my points.
I won Shiness on my 71st entry with 1 of the times there is 2 copies which means my odds are 72 times of winning. I am pretty sure there are others that has more try than I do. How could I consider myself unlucky when I won a good game worth 30P on my 71/72 try? Just because the number of wins is not greater than the number of times I entered other gifts. Of course I still hasn't include Levels which narrows down the entries.
Point to make is. Whether is the 1st time or the 72nd time the probability/odds/luck remains the same because the Random seed does not recognize you even if your its grandfather! It just throw a number at you and if you're not the winner, it spits at you and walk away! Joking, hahaha XD
Hope you understood what I am trying to put across, Cheers~
Comment has been collapsed.
The stats are correct. They don't just add up the amount of entries. They use the correct formula and don't just add up.
Forgot to attach the screenshot last message: https://imgur.com/a/BZzSNrW
Comment has been collapsed.
That seriously looks interesting however how can I consider myself unlucky when I win 2 wishlisted game in a month and my wins got to 6 in the last month? Yet "Overall, you've been unlucky, and won 2 fewer gifts than estimated since you first joined." I am not, XD
I have also starting to curate what to win more, I am afraid of entering most gifts 10p and below. I did not want to get my winning ratio running high but I am not winning the games I have entered. I am truly unlucky? Afraid not because I set limitations to my scope and if I just enter to win anything, I probably will have a larger winning ratio. Cheers :)
Comment has been collapsed.
While some theoretical probability to win something may increase by entering more GAs, the real odds per GA remain the same based on how many entries there are. It isn't as if "more entries in more GAs = more tickets for one lottery draw".
Or using that formula you used with a ten-sided dice, it sure is understandable that a picked number may be more "theoretically probable" to be thrown at some point, but the odds of that number being thrown are in each throw still and constantly 1 out of 10.
Comment has been collapsed.
Yeah. When throwing a six-sided dice six times, it isn't really bound for every of the 6 numbers to be thrown once. And when throwing the dice the 7th time (in hope for a number which wasn't thrown yet), the real odds of that number being thrown are not increased by not having been thrown before (even if some statistician argues that such number has an increased probability of being thrown now).
Comment has been collapsed.
That's not what I'm saying at all. the odds of landing at least 1 six is 66.5% chance of getting at least 1 six.
Comment has been collapsed.
Hi. I think the Probability of Winning Per Day is calculated by adding up individual probabilities, or something as such, instead of presenting an average.
Meaning that e.g. in my case it says that I had a 26% probability of winning two days ago on Saturday. But looking through list of entered giveaways, most of the GAs I entered (and ended at that time) had at least several hundreds of entries. So, even with "as few as" e.g. 200 entries on average per GA, my chance of winning per GA was 0.5%. And some probably argue that by entering 10 such GAs, my chance of winning something increased, which I do not deny as such, but my average chance of winning per GA was still "only" 0.5%.
As for my first win, that was after two weeks, and it took months until I won something of at least 20P. I wouldn't have minded if it would have been worse than that tho, since I find SG great to "offload" spare keys from bundles (instead of spending all evening in trade chats and/or reselling), and great place for info on bundles (or to try for winning from bundles I only care for one or two of) - but as bonus won some which I in cases play even more than a year after.
Comment has been collapsed.
You average chance of winning a SPECIFIC GA was indeed .5%. Your odds of winning A GA THAT DAY are way higher.
Use the following formula to count those odds: P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)
Comment has been collapsed.
I understand the idea of that entering 200 such GAs would seem to come with quite some odds to win something, but two-hundred times a chance of .5% is still .5% per GA/draw tho. Which is what I meant to point out, that the stated "probability" can be a bit misleading since e.g. named 26% doesn't exactly mean that I had an 1-out-of-4 chance to win on any or all of the GAs that day.
Specifically, when tossing a coin, the probability of it facing one side is 50%. And tossing it the second time doesn't mean that it is bound to face the other side now, even if in some statistical derivation there arguably is some increased odds to see the other side now (but not 100% anyhow). Or in regard to GA-draws, throwing a dice of two-hundred sides two-hundred times doesn't mean that every number is bound to be thrown.
By which I do not mean to make you hopeless to win something. Just mean to point out that when throwing a six-sided dice six times, it isn't really certain that every number is going to be thrown once, as the real odds for a number to be thrown do not increase by not having been thrown before.
Comment has been collapsed.
First of all, welcome to SG.
Second, my first win was 9 months after I joined SG, so it's perfectly normal. Let's look at my stats.
41 win from 19,637 giveaways, that means my winrate is %0,208... So see you after your 500 entries. :)
(Also my first win was a fake, sad start for me, haha.)
Comment has been collapsed.
Thanks for the welcome!
I only enter giveaways with good odds or ones that cost little P. Allowing me to get 500 entries daily. My chance of getting a key yesterday was 50%. RIP my luck haha
Comment has been collapsed.
How does any more data in future days influence that?
That doesn't make any sense.
If I enter 2 giveaways today. Both with 15 entries, then the odds will stay the same no matter if it was my first ever day or I had been doing that for ages.
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)
This is the way you need to add odds together if they are non-mutually exclusive as is the case with entries for GA's.
Comment has been collapsed.
Probability of Winning Per Day
View your chances of winning a game during the last month, and predictions for the next month based on the giveaways you entered to win.
There is no influence, it's just a statistical inference. If you enter a giveaway with 5 entries, your chance is 20%, that's it. This is all RNG. Not a special algorithm behind it. You can win 2 games in the same day (happened to me). Or some people have the curse for a long time they don't win anything. Anything can happen.
Comment has been collapsed.
Probability of winning on a CERTAIN day.
The second part is just exactly what I mean.
Comment has been collapsed.
My point is, there is no present in these predictions. "last month, next month" . They're all based on your previous entries.
When I first joined this site, I wasn't aware of those parts of this site so I can't give my data samples you to compare with yours. Maybe I did have 50% chance of someday but I didn't know. Like I said, it does not matter since my first win was 9 month later I joined.
About being unlucky, I'll give you a simple example and a funny one. Back in some day, some developer made a giveaway with 15,000 keys right before they're extracted from Steam (they do this sometimes for reasons) and there were about 28,000 entries, so the chance was more than 50% for everyone. Some person wrote this to that giveaway, "With my lucklessness I won't even win this." and he/she didn't win. So, it's all about randomness. Just this.
Comment has been collapsed.
I never denied any of this being about randomness.
If I have entered for 2 GA's that end today, both having 2 entries on the time ending, then my odds of winning AT LEAST ONE of the two are: 75% because of the 4 possible outcomes (with equal possiblities), there are 3 possible ones where I win a game: LL WL WW LW
If you expand this idea, (where you increase the amount of GA's entered and the odds of winning aren't equal to losing (More entries)), you come to the following formula: P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B). Using that in this example: .5 + .5 - .5 * .5 = .75.
It doesn't matter if the day before you entered a thousand giveaways all ending a week from now or you entered none. Those odds will stay the same.
Comment has been collapsed.
Well, if you look from the odds angle, that's true but I believe this calculation is more statistics than odds. I may know wrong or do not know entirely since I don't know the algorithm. In this case, we should ask @cg I think.
Btw, congrats on your first win.
Comment has been collapsed.
Well, I should've stated odds as probability to be more correct. So feel free to change odds to probability everywhere I used that word
Comment has been collapsed.
It's rather simple to explain, Khalaq has (as far as I know) the longest string of bad luck in the history of this sight, he didn't win a game in over a year. DeltaBladeX made a giveaway, and when they saw that Khalaq entered they convinced most people to leave the giveaway so he would finally win a game.
Comment has been collapsed.
You are welcome, patience/perseverance is the best virtue to winning. ;)
If you do not chose the games you win then your 1st win will come soon. if you do like me as you should not delete any of your winnings from SG as it may result to suspension. I did not want to win a game that I may have a chance not playing it and well, I should chose the games I want to win anyway. Thus the number that is increasing vastly is the number of games I hide than my odds of winning.
I am still "Overall, you've been unlucky, and won 2 fewer gifts than estimated since you first joined." base on SG stats. Just a good laugh for me. XD Wish addition Luck for you and your adventure here on SG and Welcome. :)
Comment has been collapsed.
Welcome to SG! I hope you have a good time here!
Also, dragons are very cool. Have you read Gordon Dickson's The Dragon Knight series?
"Overall, you've been unlucky, and won 6 fewer gifts than estimated since you first joined."
I would have to go back in time to screenshot my "luck chart" for the first week that I was here. I honestly do not know what it was.
Comment has been collapsed.
Yep. You've been unlucky aswell haha. Thanks for the tip, gotta read that book sometime soon.
My name isn't actually about dragons tho. Draconian is an adjective, derived from the greek emperor Draco
Comment has been collapsed.
More like a tyrant of Athens known for his harsh laws.
Comment has been collapsed.
True. Which links it to the color pink. I like how pink always stand for happiness and good stuff which combined with this sinister story behind "Draconian" is so cool!
Comment has been collapsed.
360 Comments - Last post 24 minutes ago by StarPONY
729 Comments - Last post 3 hours ago by IAMERROR404
13 Comments - Last post 3 hours ago by looseangel
1,289 Comments - Last post 3 hours ago by stlpaul
304 Comments - Last post 4 hours ago by RobbyRatpoison
2,047 Comments - Last post 4 hours ago by WaxWorm
70 Comments - Last post 5 hours ago by devotee
80 Comments - Last post 3 minutes ago by venturercatt
19 Comments - Last post 13 minutes ago by HappierParsley
78 Comments - Last post 18 minutes ago by HappierParsley
218 Comments - Last post 1 hour ago by nbaman2410
1 Comments - Last post 1 hour ago by adam1224
40 Comments - Last post 1 hour ago by LFPG
20 Comments - Last post 1 hour ago by Lubiii
https://screenshots.firefox.com/i9RmnIDIJFQr4elg/www.steamgifts.com
These odds are getting pretty decent but damn, what is my luck? haha
Haven't won ANYTHING...
How was your luck in the first week?
Any group suggestions are welcome!
Comment has been collapsed.