A few weeks ago I started a group Statistically Unlucky so that members of the Steamgifts community could create giveaways for people who are well below their estimated wins. There was a really good response, and we signed up about 45 members.

I recently purged a few leechers and suspended members, and would like to open the group to new members. This is mainly a giveaway group, no chat activity required, but you will need to contribute for the group to work.

Requirements to join:

you must have $50 or more contributor, and be unlucky enough:

  • 0-20 wins, but are 5 or more below your estimated
  • 21-40 wins, but are 6 or more below your estimated
  • 41-60 wins, but are 7 or more below your estimated
  • 8 or more below your estimate wins

...and be a decent person, with no outstanding issues with SG.

Giveaway Requirements:

I want to be very upfront about what is expected. You will need to create a giveaway...

  • When you join (new rule because of leechers)
  • When you win a giveaway (within 7 days)

If you're interested, leave a reply, and I'll look at your profile and send an invite.

FAQ from the previous thread:

  • The reason for the number of wins instead of a percent is that it's easy to see if a person qualifies.
  • The reason it's fairly high is so that we are not constantly asking people to leave when they get above their EW
  • The entrance requirements are different that the staying in the group requirements
  • You'll only be asked to leave if your wins exceed your estimate (has happened already) or you break rules.
1 decade ago*

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I would like to join please

1 decade ago
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Invite sent.

1 decade ago
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i would like an invite ^^

1 decade ago
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Sorry, you don't meet any of the criteria.

1 decade ago
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Hi, i would like to join the group :-)

1 decade ago
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I sent an invite.

1 decade ago
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thanks :-)

1 decade ago
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The thing about all of you "statistically unlucky" folk is that you enter in the wrong giveaways; you enter the BIG ones with the most entries thus lowering your chances to win; by a lot.
I never enter giveaways that have more than 600 entries. I look for the ones with the least entries and so far it's working nicely.
If you enter the ones with fewer entries, and you enter a lot of them, it's just a matter of time until you hit one.
If you really think about it's just probability and most people are bad at math, so... good luck! :)

1 decade ago
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Actually, it has nothing to do with what you said. The estimated wins is different. It's essentially adding up the odds of you winning any given giveaway and dividing by your total wins. If you enter only 1000+ giveaways, it will take 1000+ times to get your EW up to 1.

1 decade ago
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My entry/win ratio is under 100, and the fact is that my estimated wins is still higher than my effective wins…

1 decade ago
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Can I sign up? I'd happily create a few giveaways :)

1 decade ago
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I would love to get an invite to join your group. May I? :)

1 decade ago
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Invite sent.

1 decade ago
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Aww, im too lucky for this group apparently (1 short)

1 decade ago
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can i join?

1 decade ago
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Estimated Wins - 9.50 ; Gifts Won - 4

Can I get an invite? Thanks

1 decade ago
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I sent an invite.

1 decade ago
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:(

1 decade ago
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I'm on a losing streak and i'm 1 of the goal can you set me on a list for later :D

1 decade ago
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I wanna join!

1 decade ago
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im up for this

1 decade ago
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So when does someone with 0 wins count as statistically unlucky?

1 decade ago
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When your estimated wins reach 5.0+ and you still have zero wins. I'm only at 4.74, at the moment.

Poor KuroiSama has the worst luck on SG with 5,710 entries and only 55 wins (should be closer to 77.29 wins).

1 decade ago
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Oh wow. So someone with 55 wins is unlucky because according to statistics they should have 77?

1 decade ago
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Consider how you would feel if your estimated wins were 22 greater than your actual wins. You would have had to enter approximately 3000 giveaways without winning any at all. Would you consider that lucky?

1 decade ago
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4 wins, 9.23 estimated...yeah, luck has never really been on my side. I'm pretty interested in this. Thanks in advance if I get invited.

1 decade ago
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Invite sent.

1 decade ago
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Closed 1 decade ago by UselessB.