Hi all, I just had a wow moment that made me ask this question.

I just had the same person win two giveaways with 394 and 438 entries that ended 1 minute apart. The probability of that happening is 0.0000058 assuming randomness (or pseudo randomness w/ an algo and seed).

I've also noticed that when I win, I also often win in bunches. That can happen with randomness for sure, but it feels a bit clustery sometimes.

I'm curious, do any of you get the feeling that maybe winning isn't random on a per giveaway basis, but maybe some days you're streaky? Just curious.

And I'm not insinuating anything improper is going on, I'm just trying to understand if something about the selection algorithm might make streakiness more probable? Is it a simple rand(n), where n is # of entrants, or is it perhaps somehow tied to particular user id's on certain days that makes winning more probable? If it's been explained somewhere that'd be cool to read. thanks

EDIT: Link to Poll as provided by rred (thanks)
http://strawpoll.me/6225603

9 years ago*

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My perception, based on similar experience of winning 2 or 3 in a seemingly quick succession, then nothing for month on end, it seems streaky.

9 years ago
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I think userid plays a role as well. I have a winner of my GA, who won alot of games and is not to old on the site as well, and his userID is a mix of numbers and letters. Either he is very smart and very lucky to win so many games, or his userid is favored by the algorithm as he might be popping up is random picks alot. 62 wins in 5 months is quite a luck

9 years ago
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2 wins in 2200 entries. So it's 1 win per 1100 entries. Most of the ppl have 1 win per 300-500 entries. If i didn't won today game i would be really frustrated.

9 years ago
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People do realize that something can be completely random and streaky at the same time, right? -_-

If you give a chimpanzee a typewriter and infinite time, he will eventually type out the collected works of William Shakespeare.

9 years ago
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Can you give me a definition for randomness?

9 years ago
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  • probability for all outcomes of each event equal ("fair" dice is often a term applied)
  • one event independent of another (no autocorrelation)
9 years ago
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/me stares at loss streak, cries inside

9 years ago
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are you entering enough? I had a pretty high count before I won my first game - something over 1000 entries I think. You might look at joining some groups. I'm a member of the Arise Group, and it might be something you want to look into. Good group w/ lots of giveaways everyday. I'm sure there are others, but that's the one I'm familiar with.
http://www.steamgifts.com/discussion/8VyDB/arise-giveaway-group-recruiting

9 years ago
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It's human nature to attempt to align patterns in environments of randomness. Simply take a visit to any casino.

9 years ago
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i can go weeks without winning a single time or very few then win a bunch all of a sudden for example last week i won 19 games 12 of them were on the same day.

9 years ago
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I do seem to win in streaks, whenever I win a game I seem to win a couple more in the following week and then nothing for months, but I know perfectly well it's all random so I don't worry about it.

9 years ago
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you should erase the /r in the strawpoll link, thats the link for the results
And i dont know what to say, i've had those "streaks" before (not so many games btw) but i dont think theres a way for it not to be random? maybe a queue or something like that

9 years ago
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As soemone who havent won a single item in my life ( including all steam giveaway sites ) i can confirm that this is not random.

9 years ago
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I've always had bad luck when RNG is involved... so I'm used to it. Someday my luck has to turn I keep hoping... :D

9 years ago
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Well, if everybody had won something, that would definitely not be random.

(That said, I am sorry you are one of those guys right now. That is unlucky.)

9 years ago
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Streaky! what I don't get is why? isn't it better to win really randomly?

9 years ago
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I definitely noticed this, too.
Many people won in a row from me, even when the giveaways ended 30 minutes apart. The same happened to my boyfriend when we made trains together. Some users even won from me and from him in the same event. I feel like the "randomization" has something to do with the entry time or other factors...
And also: I check every single person that wins something from me, e.g. if they have multiple wins etc. and also if they regifted... So by checking many many "won pages" of people, I noticed A LOT, really A LOT LOT LOT of times that users won from the same person multiple games in a row.

I'm really interested in the algorithm and I cannot really believe that it's pure randomization.

9 years ago
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Many of the replies make me think maybe there's something in the randomization that rank/sorts by user i.d. for a period of time, rather then generate an independent random choice per giveaway. Perhaps there are computational benefits or other reasons for doing something other than pure random selection per giveaway?

Of course, we might be seeing patterns that aren't there, but if I was a stock trader (which I am on occasion) I think I'm picking up a trading signal and would go long when I get a win because odds of another one soon seem to improve.

9 years ago
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I noticed I don't win for a very long time and then win two in a row happens all the time

9 years ago
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Pffff... the winners aren't random or streakey.
I JUST WIN EVERYTHING <3 <3 <3

View attached image.
9 years ago
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One of my winners won 2 games within half an hour so yes it does happen.

9 years ago
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I usually win nothing the entire week and then i win 2 or 3 GA's on 1 day usually on weekends

9 years ago
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Sometimes I feel like I'm on the luckiest streak ever..

View attached image.
9 years ago
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well, i once won a GA which ended in 20 secs... and once i won 2 GAs at the very same second and i entered them at about the same time too and the entries for both was 20...

9 years ago
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For everyone that thinks something might be "wrong" with Steamgifts random algorithm:

THROW A COIN 1000 TIMES!!!

(or read the first page of this paper).

See those long streaks of Heads (or Tails) in a row, right there?

Yeah.

For 1000 flips of a fair coin, the expected value of the longest run is about 10.

9 years ago*
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I think overall the place is random (certainly I don't think anyone has a way to deliberately abuse the system). But I know when I was obsessed with Pokemon RNG abuse and manipulation was a thing and I sometimes suspect there are certain things going on here due to pseudorandom number generation rather than true random number generation. My own wins have come in clusters and anecdotal evidence suggests this is fairly common, and although I'm the first to admit that could simply be a matter of statistics and human tendencies to seek patterns rather than true anomalies, I have perhaps more significantly noticed serious issues with large trains I have made.

I have done some pretty big trains in forums and noticed multiple games going to various winners. With, for instance, 65 giveaways in a train and a limited number of people paying attention to the hidden link the chances of a multiple winner are pretty high. But I have often had several people winning several games in a single train, and as the sets of data from said trains were seemingly more manageable and suitable for mathematical statistical analysis I was able to sit down and start to determine some probabilities. And I'm pretty sure the chances of some of the specific clusters that occur here time and time again being genuinely random are pretty remote...

9 years ago*
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Streaky; normally I win a GA or two per week but I managed just recently to get two in one day!

9 years ago
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I've entered 7294 giveaways. Won 61. It would be nice to be able to calculate the exact average number of entries, but I'd risk saying 0.836% is a fairly consistent result.

I have also won in streaks, but those are easily explained by either a large number of giveaways ending in a given day (e.g. christmas), or by having entered consecutive invite-only or group giveaways.

9 years ago*
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I think it is save to assume that from those 7294 GA's, the entries varied quite a bit and that it will continue to vary in the same way, so your percentage could be pretty accurate.

9 years ago
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some necroposting.
Those streaks again, i won 2 games in a day(week ago) and after that. The streak of unluck of course. Over 200 hundred giveaways with less than 150 entries, 100 with less than 50, over 50 giveaways with less than 30 entries. And no aney luck.
I know, i'm just stupid shameless guy =_=. I just used to be lucky guy.
So, lil giveaway for people who suffered from reading my post.
http://www.steamgifts.com/giveaway/LAdzX/knights-of-pen-and-paper-1-deluxier-edition

9 years ago
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computers do have an algorythm for random numbers, unlike what a quantum computer would have.
In coding softwares I've encountered clusters of numbers being repeated in random number generators. I have no idea why it is so but for the most of the time it should not do that. It may also depend on the coding software being used.

9 years ago
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