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i usually win 2 or 3 games every month
now it has been 3 months and i haven't not won a single game
am i shadow banned or something??
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There's no such thing as a shadow ban. You just haven't had good luck.
Just unlucky.. maybe try to gain some levels, enter some group giveaways.. =) There's definitely no "shadow ban" here..
Luck of the draw. I won a game my first week here, then nothing for months. That's probability for you!
If you were banned you'd know it. There is no shadow banning on this site, and no type of ban that just prevents you from winning giveaways (that doesn't also prevent you from commenting and shit). So no, you've just had an unlucky stretch. :)
https://www.steamgifts.com/stats/personal/community has a graph of your win rate and probability. You may find you've been entering longshot giveaways (IE 1 in 6000 chance) a lot, which feels like you've entered a lot but your actual win chance would be quite low.
I just checked mine, and wow, the odds are not in my favour lol
Keep in mind, that the daily odds shown work by multiplying, not by addition. You will never get 100%, unless you enter a single giveaway, that you must win (like 5 copies, 5 or less participants). Entering in a day 2 x 50% giveaways, your daily odds will come to 75% (50%+50%x50%).
Luck per month, on the other hand, should show your real long term chances of winning against actually won GAs. I have some doubts though, if this calculation is entirely correct: at least recently quite a few people, like me, report real wins being significantly and constantly lower, than expected (in my case: 68 won and and 14 fewer gifts than estimated). But still it's easier to estimate using this number, even if possibly it's not perfect.
Thanks for the explanation.
I'm only entering to the GAs of games I'm actually interested in playing, so I don't enter a lot of GAs. That also lowers my chance of winning, but it's fine, because I would rather not win than win something I'll never get around to trying/playing. And I'm very new here. That also might be why my chances are so low, since I entered so less GAs.
We'll see what happens.
I already like this site so much, so I'm not too sad about losing haha.
If you are serious about playing the games, that you win, you may be interested in Playing Appreciated group (and possibly a few similar, which are a bit more restrictive) and joining it a bit later.
If you keep being unlucky and win less than 7 games in 2 months, you will be able to join Unlucky7 group.
Enjoy your time here :)
I joined PA yesterday! Thanks for the information about both groups though. I'll check Unlucky7 after 2 months :)
I have not won anything since 11 months ago. Which is....fine...I guess.
I hope so
Why always so negative? 😥
Nope, it is happening to everyone because users are not as active and less giveaways are being created. Go to the SG giveaways stats page linked below and view the chart for how many giveaways are being created every month on SG. As you can see, there are only about 1/2 or 1/3 as many being created compared to how many there were in the past. With less giveaways to enter, you will have less wins. There are other stat pages you can view on the left side of the page.
That's really a big decrease over a year. :/
Also weird spike in january-february 2015 and september 2017.
I don't know what the spikes were from, but I feel like the decline in giveaways over time is normal because of how the site is designed. Most people create giveaways because they like to level up, not because they want to give games to other people. Some think of it like a game, some want the advantage of entering higher level giveaways, and some think it is a status symbol.
When a lot of new users join, there will be a lot of new users trying to work their way up the level system, which means a lot of giveaways. As these users reach higher levels, they will stop creating new giveaways because they have achieved what they wanted. This means the number of active users increases over time and the number of giveaways decreases.
Then on top of that, every person can only have one account and there are a finite amount of people that are interested in giving away games on a site like this. Once most of the interested people join, there will be less and less new users as time goes on.
Mix the fact that less new users are joining and the ones that stick around create less giveaways because they reached a level they are happy with and you get a drastic drop in the number of giveaways being created.
The new users per month shown here is kind of scary, but expected.
And a bunch of people that just left the forum because of reasons.. People that kept the forum active with giveaways/puzzles/just talk etc, which i think helps in a certain group also staying vs seeing a forum where there isn't alot of action going on.
The spikes come from mass giveaways. And that is the reason why you have to take these statistics with a grain of salt. They count mass giveaways with more than 10k games as well and that makes the statistic as an indicator for community activity unreliable.
On the other hand, it is sad that we have so little influence as individual on these numbers.... :(
Ah yeah that's probably it.
Just as real life how we often have so little influence on our own. :p
That is probably a really good point, especially given that Valve have started turning down certain bulk key generation requests.
The January-February 2015 spike was the time period of the SG v2.0 launch if I remember correctly, which resulted in an influx of new users as well as "celebratory" giveaways. The 2017 spike is a mystery ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I don't know the timings, but I think it's safe to say that Steam's change in Steam Gifts (pricing region locks), and the appearance and disappearance of Groupees 50¢ bundles, Fanatical's (BundleStars back then) mega-bundles that had 33-50 games for $1, and Gogo/Otakubundles bundles all played a part. Even DIG used to have games cheaper than they do now (as well as Steamground) so people could easily give lots of games for the same amount of money as fewer games now.
Well that would explain a more overall decreasing line, which there is.
But a 50000 difference with the month before and after that. And before it also had 2 spikes at around 100k (1 could be because of Christmas), still doesn't really explain it, i think.
But probably as CronosZ said mass giveaways.
I've first seen this graphic a couple of months ago... it's a bit sad. The monthly numbers of giveaways are now lower than the ones from february 2015.
Interesting. Whitelist must have been added in 2015. I never knew it wasn't around from the start (obviously I wasn't here back then).
This website is a scam
Why do you think so?
It's an SG meme.
Oh, okay. I haven't been around that long so thanks for clarifying!
Check out group recruitment to join some smaller groups
maybe you are. the shadow doesn't tell us.
am i banned?
am i banned?
By who? God of Luck?
The Gods of Gaming have declared this a no win zone.
I think I once prayed to Goddess of Gaming when I couldn't win hard race in TDU2, and it helped. Not only did I win the race, but the following one was extremely chill and nice.
it´s called leech filter
Who knows what evil lurks in the hearts of men? The Shadow knows.
If there was such a thing as shadow-banning, and if you were shadow-banned, do you really think we would tell you?
That said - of course there's no such thing as shadow-banning, and of course the grey council didn't decide to shadow-ban you on... let me check my notes... The 4pm meeting on the 29th of March.
Which didn't happen. Because there is no such thing as the grey council. What an absurd rumour...
you've said too much
He hasn't said enough...
I thought that I heard him you laughing...
I wonder how many will understand the reference I'm making -- and whether you intended for it to be made.
That's me in the corner! :)
Is that you in the spotlight?
Going atheist wait that's not how that is supposed to go :P
Can I post? How do I post a comment?
i have not won a game in 4 years mate , it happens hahhah :3
The god of luck is punishing you for only idling your wins instead of playing them.
Who said that? Anyone else hear a noise? Maybe it's just me.
It must have been the wind.
No, just you have no luck this time and keep trying to participate in some giveaways! hahaha.
If you read the help section on the top you know what you do and not do in this comunity.
I''m newbie in here but a veteran knows more.
I won a game on my first day on SG...and then nothing for a while.
Get more active, give more, which will help you qualify for groups. Most of the groups have monthly requirements, but they're usually nothing too strenuous. By being in groups, you get access to GAs with a limited pool of potential entries, meaning that your odds there are much higher.
And, while you're participating there, your increased giving will help you level up, which also gets you access to more exclusive GAs.
my last win is also more than 2 month ago - no luck at the moment
No, you are not banned, if you join tons of giveaways with many entries you still will get small chance of winning. Try join some groups and forum giveaways, they usually have much less participants. If someone kind add you to whitelist that will help massively too. And give back to this lovely community, aside from moral satisfaction you will get level bump that will increase your chances too. If you play your wins i recommend to apply for Playing Appreciated group, they have probably easiest requirement - just play your win from group in 30 days time.
What is the value of your expected wins for those 3 months?