Because you've entered in a giveaway with less (or equal) amount of entries compared to number of copies given away.
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Most likely it is the 1,000 copy giveaway of that terrible zombie game:
https://www.steamgifts.com/giveaway/ecfbH/zombie-zoeds
Edit: I lied... that one doesn't end on the 18th...
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What bludshade said. :X
It'll change if the gib gets more entries.
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Either what has already been said, or you entered enough giveaways with low entries so that rounding makes it closer to 100% than 99%.
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That wouldn't work out. You can enter 4 giveaways each with a 33% chance of winning, and you still do not have a 100% chance of winning.
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But if you entered 14 giveaways each with a 33% chance of winning, your chances of winning at least one would be
1-(2/3)^14 = 99.66%
which would get rounded up to 100.
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Each giveaway is independent of all the others. So, you still have a 33% chance of winning each giveaway. It's like flipping a coin. You are no more likely to flip a heads after you flip a tails.
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The way SG tallies the chance of winning, I'm pretty sure it is the chance of winning at least one (as opposed to the average chances, which would be as simple as averaging), as I calculated above. You can question whether this is the preferred way of showing the odds, but it makes reasonable sense to me.
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You would know, but am I wrong in doing the math below?
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I need to know how you calculated your favorable outcomes. I agree with the total number which is 3^14.
I'm still trying to think about it, but I see no way to easily calculate the amount of favorable outcomes. I'll let you know if I think of something.
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With 14 giveaways each with 3 entries, and you have entered each one once...
4782969 total outcomes
16384 favorable outcomes
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Okay, I figured it out.
The chance of winning at least one giveaway is the sum of the chances of winning exactly one, two, ..., fourteen giveaways out of 14.
no. outcomes of winning exactly 1: 14 choose 1 times 2^13, since you must lose the remaining 13 giveaways, while winning exactly one. 14 choose 1 refers to the binomial expression = amount of permutations of the above configuration.
no. outcomes of winning exactly 2: 14 choose 2 times 2^12, since you must lose 12 and win exactly two.
And so on.
In total, it's the sum of x=1 to x=14 of 2^(14-x) times 14 choose x, which gives exactly 4766585 favourable outcomes.
4766585 divided by 4782969 gives exactly the result from earlier.
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The earth's rotation allows for a simulation of the magic of time travel. For example, here in Australia, it is already Wednesday morning. Let me know if you need any information about tomorrow. I've taken a quick look for you and I can advise that the blue line did not catch the grey dotted line.
;-)
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Why is this happening :D
WHY
Giveaway
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