300 points give 30 entries for 10 points
chance is = 30 1/(average entries per all those 30 giveaways)
say average is 500 then you have 30 1 / 500 = 0,06 or 6%
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Stop mutilating mathematics, please. It's 1-(499/500)^30, which is a tiny bit above 0.058, or 5.8 %. It might not seem like a great difference here, but with other numbers, it is.
(Your method would give him 100 % chance of winning by the 500th such entry, which is nonsense. If you keep entering 500-entrant HL2 giveaways, there is only a 63.2 % chance of having won by the time you reach 500.)
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все понятно интуитивно.
Захотел игру,
тыкнул "войти" ,
сняли нужное количество баллов,
помолился,
...
profit!
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если я поставил все свои 300p на игры одного и того же типа (например half life2) то кокова вероятность что я ее выиграю?
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