Most sporting events have been cancelled for the last 2 months. The UFC looks it's actually going ahead this weekend (masks, lots of testing, no spectators), so let's try another UFC prediction event. This will be my 6th time doing an event like this. Recording predictions, checking edits, checking results etc. has been a lot of work in the past, so I'm changing the format a little to make it easier for me.

On May 9th, UFC 249 will be held Countdown to preliminary fights

How to enter/Rules

Rather than copy/pasting a table with predictions like previous events, I'm trying out Google Forms. This will be behind an sgtools check (if you can't pass the check, there's still one giveaway you can enter further down). I'll be cross checking that all entries went through the check so those of you who get through, please don't share the link.

  • Complete the Google Form that's behind the sgtools check - The form asks for your SG username and a winner in all 12 fights. You will also need to choose the method by which they will win (knockout/technical knockout,submission, or decision). * If you change your prediction, you can resubmit the form up until the start of the event. I will count the newest submission. Changes or submissions made after the scheduled start of preliminary fights will not be counted (The time of submission is recorded)
  • Last minute change of fighters by the UFC or cancellations will mean that fight does not count in the contest (e.g Dominick Cruze can't fight and is replaced by another fighter = the result of that fight is ignored for all predictions). I will try to keep on top of this and post any news as I find it leading up to the event so you can change your predictions in time.

Entry and Prizes

The winner of the contest is chosen based on the number of correct predicted winners. When two people have the same number of picks, the method of winning is used to determine places in the table. I will add the overall winner on Steam and send a game directly, so winning is based only on your ability to predict the fights or your good luck!

  1. Everyone Lvl 3+ Here's a giveaway for EARTHLOCK for reading this far! (Anti-bot protection in place)
  2. All those who pass the sgtools check Can enter the Lvl4+ giveaway for Hidden through Time and predict the event, basic sgtools plus Minimum ratio using number of gifts Sent/Won on Steamgifts: 0.33 (you can't have won more than 3x the number of games you have given away)
  3. 1st place You got through the sgtools check and made predictions before the event started. You got the most correct predictions. Your prize is a game from your wishlist (must have been added before 07 May). If you have no wishlist or they're all expensive games, I'll contact you to work out another prize. Similar deal if there's a tie for 1st. I'm not rich!

Entries to the prediction event are closed, the fights have started

How to Watch

It's being broadcast on UFC Fight Pass and a variety of TV channels around the world (ESPN+ in the U.S, BT Sport in the UK, Foxtel Main Event in Australia, Sky Arena in New Zealand, etc.). If you want to check how to watch in your country, try this page (you might need to change the region in the top right).
You may be able to find another method of watching online, but I am not condoning or encouraging any kind of illegal activity!
Alternatively, soon after the event (or sometimes after each individual fight) you can probably see highlights on sports news sites, or via clips and gifs on sites like the MMA subreddit.

Fight Results

I'll start updating results in the table below after a couple of fights have finished. I'll try and get a finsal standing chart of people who entered too, but there are a lot more entries than usual (49!), so I probably won't be able to do that live this time.

Fight Winner Method of win
1. Ryan Spann DEC
2. Bryce Mitchell DEC
3. Vicente Luque TKO
4. Ronaldo Souza vs. Uriah Hall Cancelled
5. Carla Esparza DEC
6. Aleksei Oleinik DEC
7. Anthony Pettis DEC
8. Greg Hardy DEC
9. Calvin Kattar KO
10. Francis Ngannou KO
11. Henry Cejudo TKO
12. Justin Gaethje KO

Leaderboard at the end of the event

Rank SG User Winners picked Methods picked
1. HaveADrunkDay 9 8
2. gangnamstyle 9 6
3. Gaffi 9 5
3. Golwar 9 5
4. ikucufire 9 3
4. Mightman 9 3
5. DirigibleDan 9 2

All Predictions

Slight miscount on the methods due to a mistake in my formulas, now updated. Thankfully it didn't change the winner (-.-;) or the order. Just a few more equal scores.
Full list of submitted predictions in a not very user friendly format here

View attached image.
3 years ago*

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Reserved for edits and updates

3 years ago
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  1. Video log buildup to the event episode 1, episode 2, episode 3, episode 4, episode 5
  2. Official weigh in results
    • Jeremy Stephens appears to have missed weight by 4.5 lbs
  3. Ceremonial weigh in and face offs
3 years ago*
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  • Jacare Souza tested positive for Corona, so he is out of the event and the bout won't be used in the prediction event - story link, Two cornermen also tested positive
3 years ago*
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Event start time changed to 8pm ET. The countdown clock was updated when I woke up (I'm in a very different time zone). The event has now started and the prediction event has closed. The regular giveaways are still open for those who missed the predictions.

3 years ago*
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Good idea to use Google form. Easier to get the results AND prevents lazy copy & paste entries.

Edit: It would be nice if we could see a summary of our bets and could change them, in time.

3 years ago*
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Do you mean a list of the predictions made by different people before the event starts?
I can probably do that, but it would enable the lazy copy and paste entries you mentioned.

3 years ago
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No, I just want a summary of my own predictions. And the option to change something if I should reconsider. ;)

3 years ago
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I'll find an old giveaway of yours and post your predictions there then :)

3 years ago
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Nah, you don't have to do any extras just for me. It was just a general suggestion. :)

3 years ago
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I made some "predictions" though I really have no idea. :D

3 years ago
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They're pretty difficult to predict, so you probably have as good a chance as anyone! :)

3 years ago
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Bump!
I've made predictions, let's see the result. I have almost no idea about those fighters, lol.

3 years ago
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Im really happy we're gonna watch some fights! Quite a card too! Good job Dana! And thabk you for doing the prediction game :D

3 years ago
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Yeah, I like this card a lot. Two of my favourite fighters there with Dom Cruze and El Cucuy. Most of the early fights are pretty interesting too.

3 years ago
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Sorry if this is a dumb question, but is there a trick to signing into SGTools? (I don't mean the anti-bot protection stuff used on the lvl 3 giveaway) When I try accessing the SGTools site via the sign-up button, it brings me to Steam and asks if I want to sign in. When I say "sure do!", it just brings me back to the previous screen, but doesn't appear to have signed me in. (I don't see a link to a predictions form or a giveaway I can enter, at least)

Computer illiteracy aside, I'm very excited about this event! The main and co-main is about the coolest one-two punch of bouts I'd really like to see. I feel bad Tony/Gaethje doesn't get to take place in front of a crowd, since that's bound to be crazy, but I think I might enjoy Cejudo/Cruz more in an empty arena kinda atmosphere unless some unexpectedly crazy moments go down in it.

3 years ago
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After the Steam sign in prompt for sgtools, you should be sent to a slightly different sgtools page for the giveaway where you are signed in and you can 'check' that you can enter the giveaway.

When you are signed into sgtools, your steam avatar should be at the top right of the screen. If you can't see the giveaway information, you could try the 'giveaways' tab and looking for a giveaway for 'Hidden through Time' that should be there, or just come back to this post and try my link again.

3 years ago*
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Thanks! I've never been able to get SGTools to work since I registered on Steamgifts, and simply signing in didn't seem to work this time either, but when I clicked around on the top options, picking "giveaway" for some reason made my avatar appear. So my predictions are in, though I'm basically of two minds on a lot of these bouts. Thanks for hosting this!

3 years ago
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No problem. Glad you could get it to work. If you want to change your predictions, you can always submit again. I'll just take the newest predictions.
I've been watching MMA for a long time and I still can't predict the fights! I'm excited about this event too. I feel like UFC events are too regular these days and the fighting roster is too big. The long break is good for building excitement.

3 years ago
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I think I'm as satisfied as I'll ever be. There's just so many possible outcomes, and there's an added element of uncertainty involved now that no one has been able to have a normal camp, or even a normal fight week. We know Ngannou sparred (exclusively?) with Ivanov for this camp, and Cruz got to spar with Stephens as usual, but other than that, who knows how upside-down these past few months have been for each individual fighter, and how the lack of a huge crowd might affect them. Maybe we'll see the mythical TUF-level Uriah Hall show up!

I started devouring MMA a little over a decade ago, and I was loving having UFC events on almost weekly. I bet tiny baby amounts on fights every now and again but basically went 50/50 every time, breaking even in the last few years. The long wait has definitely allowed them to put together a stacked card for this one, though, so it should be a fun and bizarre one.

3 years ago
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bump

3 years ago
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bump

3 years ago
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looking forward to it!~

3 years ago
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bump!

3 years ago
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bump

3 years ago
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Deleted

This comment was deleted 2 years ago.

3 years ago
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bump

3 years ago
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Bump.

3 years ago
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3 years ago
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Yeah :( updates
I'm guessing they'll just have 11 fights. Hopefully the event still goes ahead.

3 years ago
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oh sorry didn't see. dana won't let this one get shut down as well, surely

3 years ago
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It's ok. I don't think it's easy to see the updates near the top, so it's good you posted. I'm just redirecting other people who see yours to any other updates I find :)

I think it will go ahead, but wonder what will happen to the other events coming soon. I think there are 2-3 scheduled next week with fighters based in the same hotel. I read that Souza had a family member who tested positive, so it's probably why he was wearing a mask and gloves at the weigh in. Hopefully everyone was aware that he might have it from early on and kept him isolated in the hotel.

3 years ago
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Bump for entering a contest and making random predictions about a sport I know nothing about. lol.
But good luck to all the fighters I picked. :)

3 years ago
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Just level 3, but thanx and bump!

3 years ago
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I entered before reading that it was restricted to lvl3+.
Sorry about that but let me know how well I predicted if you can :)

3 years ago
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It's ok. If you got through the sgtools check, you're free to enter the prediction contest. :)
The giveaways had level restrictions in place, but not the link for Google Forms

TBH it was my mistake with the set up, so I'm not gonna discount you for my mistake

3 years ago
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Thanks for the oppurtunity!
The card has been great so far!

3 years ago
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pettis's eye poke slipping by 👀

3 years ago
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Yeah, it's good that Cerrone could keep fighting and even land a few good shots straight after that. Would've been bad if that sequence led to a KO loss.

Mostly good fights so far, but a lot of decisions. Some of them not what I expected.

3 years ago
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Do you think Cerrone should have gotten the decision?

3 years ago
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Not sure about that one. I was surprised it was unanimous though, expected a split.
Waterson vs Esparza had a 30-27, 29-28, 27-30 result. I thought Waterson won, so was surprised one judge had her losing every round. Guess I'm not a judge tho!

3 years ago
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Posted the current leaders, but things can change a lot with the last two fights.

Big Cruz fan, disappointed (T.T)

3 years ago*
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What a fight! Will be interesting to see how Gaethje puts up with Khabib next. Only thing missing on this card for me was Namajunas—really wish she could've fought because she deserves that title back. Anyways, cool event you set up. Good fun, thank you.

3 years ago
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You're welcome, glad you enjoyed the card. Some great fights on there.

3 years ago
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Should call him Francis You Sleep Ngannou

3 years ago
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Card really paid off! Great matches from Early prelims up to Main Event.

Personal highlights imo: The power of Ngannou (oh my! What a knockout power) and Justins performance overall!

P.S. I'd love to watch Uriah hall fight. Thats unfortunate :/

3 years ago
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How in the world I managed to place so high, I'll never know. lol

3 years ago
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An untapped skill of predicting, or some good luck? Time to buy a lottery ticket, maybe! :)

3 years ago
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Hmmm. Maybe!

Thanks for the event!

3 years ago
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Man, what a show. I liked almost everything about it except De Castro/Hardy, the iffy finish in Cejudo/Cruz, and the incorrect judges' decision in Esparza/Waterson. Sad for Tony because damn, a 12-fight unbeaten streak + an interim title win absolutely should have gotten him a crack at the real thing by now, but yeah. I expected and bet on Gaethje by TKO/KO/DQ though, so the main event was a pretty great ride from my POV.

3 years ago
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Some great fights for sure, but I was rooting for Cruze and Ferguson to win and for Hardy to lose, so was a bit disappointed.
Gaethje is fun to watch, so that's not too bad. As you say, it's just that Tony deserves a real title shot now after all the problems matching him and Khabib up.
The Cruze stoppage was annoying, but if I wasn't a fan I probably wouldn't have been as surprised. The good thing from that fight is Cejudo retired! I find his adopted 'Triple C' persona very annoying. Even the weigh-in antics are cringy.
Hardy - I can't see passed the fact that he was charged for domestic violence in the past, so I root against him in every fight.

3 years ago
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I was--as always, and for the same reason as you--rooting against Hardy, and I really thought he was on his way to lose. That he heard DC talking about checking leg kicks is apparently what got him to finally do it and injure De Castro in the process really bums me out. Gaethje is as entertaining as they come and he seems like a good dude, so if Tony were going to lose before fighting Khabib, I'm glad it was to him. I thought Poirier might have stood the best chance against Khabib out of anyone in the division who's not Tony, but this more measured version of Gaethje seems to bring comparable or better fire power + significantly better defensive wrestling, so I'm intrigued by him as a challenger, too.

I think Cruz was moving about as well as you could expect in the situation, but maybe I would have felt differently if I weren't a big fan. I hate, selfishly, that Cejudo is retiring. I want as many talented fighters with as much name value possible in all divisions, and while his gimmick was silly and he was bad at doing it, I thought it was harmless fun and at least a smidge better than him being the most boring man on the planet. :P

3 years ago
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