Is anyone else winning a lot less recently? All of a sudden, it seems like the number of entries in any single giveaway has doubled or tripled. There use to be a decent number of giveaways with less than 200 entries. Now, I can barely find any with less than 400 entries. And I am level 4, too. In the past couple of weeks, has the site gotten a lot more popular? Or has a lot more people leveled up? Maybe there are bots putting in entries? I am not sure. It is just odd. I'm curious if anyone else is noticing the same thing. Maybe the site has become a lot more popular? I just find it odd that a level 4+ giveaway will now generate over 100 entries in the span of a half hour. In the past, this barely ever happened. Just curious if anyone else noticed the same thing...

1 month ago

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I have been winning more recently, but the wins have mostly been coming from group, whitelist, or other restricted giveaways that have less entries.

You can view general stats here. There are a bunch of different categories on the left side of the page to view other stats.

1 month ago
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Interesting. Will you tell me more about group or whitelist giveaways? How do you get into groups or whitelisted?

1 month ago
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1 month ago
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Well theres a Forum just for group recruitment:
https://www.steamgifts.com/discussions/group-recruitment
Just go there, look for groups that sound interesting and ask if you can be a
member (if they are searching for new members right now).
ALSO, and that is important: Read the Rules mentioned usually in the first
post of the thread in the respective group.
Some groups have rules what you should write down/are willing to do to be a member of
a group.
Just a "i want to join" is, most of the time, not enough.
And when this is enough, those groups have usually many members so the giveaways are crowded like the free ones. ;)

As for whitelist giveaways: if you're generous and make a lot of friends here you get whitelisted by folks and sometimes
they make giveaways just for their whitelist.
Of course, sometimes there are "whitelist"-threads here as well, where you just write something in the thread
and then get whitelisted.
But then those whitelist giveaways are crowded as well as there are many people in the whitelist and so the chance to win gets down again. ;)

1 month ago
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Nice. I am learning something new. Thanks for the help!

1 month ago
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Also, remember that the good (like small with high profile giveaways like akatsuki https://www.steamgifts.com/discussion/ynDw6/akatsuki-group-for-unbundled-games-no-ratio-systemplay-your-won-gamesopen ) have strict rules (just read the first Post).
So be aware that groups CAN be good, but you also have to do many things to be allowed there (and will be tested before you can join, for what you write in your first posting AND what giveaways you do).
So, group giveaways can have a MUCH higher chance of winning something but you need to give away (and sometimes play the wins) also
on a regular basis and keep the rules.
If you don't you get kicked and are back at the public giveaways again. :)

1 month ago
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When you create a giveaway, you can make it public so everyone on the site can enter or you can restrict it to groups, whitelist, or invite only.

Group giveaways restrict the people that can enter to the people that are in the Steam group. If you are in the group, you will see all the giveaways for that group included in your main list of giveaways that you can enter. There is a section of the discussions where people ask others to join their groups here. You are in the Lootboy SG group, so you will see any giveaways for that group. These will have less entries than public giveaways because they are restricted to the group. You can view their giveaways on their group page here (you don't need to go there though because all of those giveaways will show on your main list of giveaways that you can enter).

Whitelist just means that someone decided to add you to their whitelist for some reason. They can create a giveaway and choose to only allow people from their whitelist to enter. You will see these giveaways on your main giveaway list as well. You can also blacklist people, they will not be able to enter any giveaways you create and you will not be able to enter any of their giveaways.

Invite only is a giveaway that nobody can see unless they are given a direct link. You will see these posted in threads here in the discussions. You will often find them in the puzzle/ events threads.

The only way to enter these giveaways is to find groups that you like and join them, be active on the site and if people notice you and want to add you to their whitelist for one reason or another because they feel you deserve it, and read the discussion to find invite only giveaways.

You can read more about how the site works in the FAQ here.

1 month ago*
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Wow. This is good information. Thanks for taking the time to clarify.

1 month ago
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great answer 🙂👌✅

1 month ago
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I don't win often but I also see almost no giveaways so my chance of winning is pretty low.

1 month ago
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yes

1 month ago
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over -5 wins from last month alone

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1 month ago
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Before someone starts a donation for this unlucky soul, "only" 1025 wins while blacklisting people over level 6-7 because "they can buy their own games" :)

1 month ago
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would rather have those who have less win and are far more likely to play the games they win, cry more.

1 month ago*
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Oh no, you're gravely mistaken, I don't want games from you. Back in the day I even accepted your reasoning, when you were what? like level 4?

I'm just curious when you'll get a bit self aware.

Isn't it funny, winning 300 games is worth blacklisting because it's absolutely too much, yet it's full okay to repeatedly complain about only winning 1000 games, being the pariah with the negative wins?
Isn't it funny, when a level 8 is siphoning up games, while blacklisting people for being the same or lower level , claiming they are too rich if they got to that level?

Oh, also finished 50%+ of my wins, have a better completion, achievement and gameplay time on my wins than you do ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

So, if I should not win games, then you shouldn't even enter giveaways, 3 times over, by your own logic. But alas, winning and complaning. Good old double standards and fake morals ;)

PS: literally " I hate you all" would be a better reason for blacklisting, because you're making a delusional ass out of yourself by claiming this as your standards.

1 month ago
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laughs in 372 Whitelists. try being nice to people, it helps

1 month ago
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You are the last person i would take advice on being nice
Count yourself happy that you can easily persuade people into whitelisting, an online persona on steamgifts doesnt need effort, anything that takes less than a minute to come up with, will result in both whitelist and blacklist.
Though i have to say that if that is the path you are on ,300whitelist is considered low for someone who has been here for as long as you

1 month ago
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Passed that in 2016, currently at 798. Nice grasping at straws, to validate your shit standards.
Try being nice to people ;)

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1 month ago
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cry more, laughs in 373 Whitelists.

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1 month ago
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lol

1 month ago
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Alot of my entries are in GA's that have 2000+ entries.
Statistically, I'd have to enter 2000+ GAs to win 1.

1 month ago
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Well, according to the Law of truly large numbers, an event out of thousand has a probability of happening once in one-thousand trials at 63.23%. The problem with applying this to giveaways though is that the event of person A winning a giveaway is not tied to a specific position as solid as an 1 on a die.

Meaning, if person A would in one-thousand giveaways (with 1.000 entries each) always have position 1 when the random-winner-generator picks a winner, then person A would have a probability of winning once 63.25%. But the position of person A for each giveaway is different. So if person A has position 1 in GA and the winner is position 5, and in the next GA person A has position 5 and the winner is position 1, person A doesn't have the same chance of winning as if always on position 1 with the generator theoretically circling through each of the 1.000 positions in 1.000 runs.

Or to slim this down, what is the probability of getting one 6 when throwing a die 6-times? First of all, it isn't 100%, but actually 66.5% - which is due to there being a probability of not getting a 6 too. And in terms of giveaways, it isn't always a 6 hoped for all the time. Meaning at first throw/GA the needed result for a win may be the 6, but in the second throw/GA it may be actually a 2 needed for a win, and so on. And that means that the actual probability of getting just the right number in a throw/GA within six throws is lower than 66.5%.

1 month ago
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uh..Your calculation for 6 die throws is correct 66.5% = 1 - losing all 6 rolls = 1 - (5/6)^6
However. 66.5% is the chance of rolling AT LEAST one 6. The odds of getting exactly one 6 = 40.19%

Your discussion of positioning in the list of entrants is wrong. Your last sentence is wrong and contradicts your earlier correct answer: 66.5%. When throwing a six-sided die, and changing your number to win for each throw, the result is the same 66.5% of winning (at least once) because the odds of losing each scenario is still the same = 5/6.
It does not matter that you changed your position in the lottery for each of the 6 gambles.
Winning Exact # of times:
0 33.49% 0
1 40.19% 40.2
2 20.09% 40.2
3 5.36% 16.1
4 0.80% 3.2
5 0.0643% 0.32
6 0.002143% 0.013
Weighted Ave: ___
Total Weighted 100.0%
So, in 1000 GA entries, 63.23% of winning at least once is correct. But the weighted average of perhaps winning more than once ends up adding up to the 100.0% weighted average win of 1000 entries with 1/1000 chances each.
(My gut reaction was correct, but I too had to process it for awhile to calculate correctly.)
Regarding probabilities, Human instincts are often poor.

1 month ago*
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Then there is the whole flipping a coin.
While long term, its not 50/50/.
But each individual flip is 50/50 as it flips..

1 month ago
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Yes. You stated it poorly, but I think you mean this:
If you flip a coin 8 times, your odds of winning at least once is 99.61%.
However, after losing 7 times, before the 8th flip, your odds of winning is still... 50%

You are on a game show "Let's Make a Deal"
Randomly behind 3 curtains are: a cake, a dishwasher, & a car. Clearly you want the car.
(you can sell the car and buy the dishwasher for less if you really need it.)
Guessing blindly, you choose a curtain. "I want what is behind #3".
Then, to tease you, the host shows you a lesser prize behind 1 of the curtains, cake or washer. He knows where the car is and will not show you that curtain--he is not picking blindly like you.
You cannot pick the revealed curtain now (even if it is the dishwasher and would save disappointment in picking cake.)
He gives you one last chance: "Are you sure you want Curtain #3, or would you like to pick the other remaining curtain."

Your instincts calculate that you have a 50/50 chance. Nothing you can do. Just luck of a coin flip, right? However, NO.
Your information set has changed! The correct answer is always: "I will choose the other closed curtain!"
It turns out that your odds of winning the car are now 2/3 behind the other curtain, because the odds of the car behind Curtain #3 is still 1/3 from when you originally picked blindly.

1 month ago*
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Yes, first flip has a 50% chance of being either heads or tails. In case of two flips, the possible outcomes are four: heads-heads, heads-tails, tails-heads, and tails-tails. So the probability of getting at least one heads from the two flips is 75% (and to get exactly one heads 50%), as the chance of getting heads increases after every flip that didn't have heads.

The thing with giveaways though is that it is like asking you before each flip whether you pick heads or tails. So, on first flip you say heads, and it is tails. And on the second flip you (are bound to) say tails, but the probability for the series in total is 75% for it to be heads, leaving you with 25% probability to get that desired outcome of "tails - tails".

1 month ago*
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Yes, AT LEAST one 6 is correct. However, I don't agree that the events on repeated trials are interchangable. E.g. coin flipping, first flip has a 50% chance of being either heads or tails. In case of two flips, the possible outcomes are four: heads-heads, heads-tails, tails-heads, and tails-tails. So the probability of getting at least one heads is 75% (and to get exactly one heads 50%), right?

The thing with giveaways though is that it is like asking you before each flip whether you pick heads or tails. So, on first flip you say heads, and it is tails. And on the second flip you (are bound to) say tails, but the probability is 75% for it to be heads, leaving you with 25% probability to get that desired outcome of "tails-tails". See?

EDIT: And yes, I am aware that if one looks at the second flip individually, the probability is 50% to get the desired outcome. But the point is in regard to talking about a series of flips, and that the 75% probability of winning applies only when you always get to have heads as the winning slot, which isn't the case in giveaways.

1 month ago*
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Short answer: your logic is wrong.

I like your simple game of 2 coin tosses (fair 50% coin.) The math is at its simplest.
Your 3rd paragraph: "applies only when [picking heads always]"--wrong.
If you say before the game starts that you want, HEADS on the 1st toss and TAILS on the 2nd toss, your odds of winning at least once are the same 75%. You have a 50% chance of losing on the first toss and 50% chance of losing on the 2nd toss. Therefore, you have a 25% chance of not winning both tosses [or ALL 2 of them].

Your 2nd paragraph: "[For] the 2nd flip, the probability is 75% [heads]"--wrong. You have created a new game: In this new game, you have already definitely lost the 1st game. Your new game is: "What are the odds of winning at least once in a 2 coin flip, if I definitely KNOW that I lost the first flip (when I chose heads)?" Scenarios are now: T-H, T-T. The answer is 50%. Why did the odds change? Because we created a completely different game with a different information set. You definitely lost the 1st flip.

8 coin tosses. I pick T, T, H, H, T, H, T, T. The results are the same if I pick T, T, T, T, T, T, T, H.
The odds of me winning at least once are: 1 - (1/2)^8 = 99.61%
After 6 flips, if I now know that I have lost all 6 times, my odds of winning at least once in the 8 flips are now: 75%.

1 month ago
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More accounts get levels the last weeks because a active mod haven't much time for add game tickets (= reduced and free games).
Maybe one of the reasons.

Besides the fact that the exploit/abuse increase in general.

1 month ago
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I stopped entering low-chances GA because I was already -12 gift won lmao. So, I started joining games that I really want to play, so most of them have many entries. So, if you want to win games I recommend searching in groups, whitelist or giveaways that are only 1 hour long. Also, higher levels have fewer entries and better games, so that's another option. Good luck my friend!

1 month ago
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i think the all time low record for 1 month is -17

1 month ago
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Wow, such a bad luck!

1 month ago
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my record is -8.53 july 2020, and right after that for the next month -6.74.

1 month ago
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Yes, I remember you told me in one of my discussions. Has it improved?

1 month ago
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-5.03 last month, but im sitting in the green right now at 0.13 yeahhh!!!

1 month ago
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Nice! Hope you get lucky!

1 month ago
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it feels like the more you give in a month, the less you win

1 month ago
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I’ve been winning more than usual recently. But it’s mostly from group/puzzle GAs. Very rarely have i won anything from public giveaways, since they have a lot of entries.

1 month ago
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I haven't won anything since the last year so I couldn't feel any difference :D

1 month ago
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Have won 1 bundle trash game in 6 months, so yeah I guess so.

Thought the game might be fun, but it turned out to be ... not so, and I didn't play it for very long as a result. That's on me though, as I should have researched it better before entering. Only game I've won in 2021 too.

1 month ago
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There use to be a decent number of giveaways with less than 200 entries.

We likely see a wildly different site lol

1 month ago
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yes, dropped like hell... but at least ii wasn't like 5 months ago when i was no winning 2 months in a row.

1 month ago
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It's just bad RNG.

I'm going through a dry spell myself. No SG wins in 6 months, no booster pack drops on Steam in 5 months.

1 month ago
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lol i know the feeling.
I keep leveling up (slowly) on Steam, which should increase my chances, but instead I get less and less booster packs.
I only join GAs for games that I want to play here, and try to join only GAs that has a minimum level, but my chances seem to get lower and lower.

But whatever, I'm still happy of what I won so far.

1 month ago
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Variance, what is it?

1 month ago
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1 month ago
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I do not really see any difference, but game bundles are cheap enough to buy they for games I would like to play, so I don't even enter much. But when I see how many % of users is level 0, which means there is a lot of people just to enter, there will never be enough giveaways to get daily 5 free games. So cheer up, in 8 months you have been lucky , winning 3x more games than you gifted and even on public giveaways... I think you have nothing to complain :)

1 month ago
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All good. Just curious. Wondering if something changed or I missed something...

1 month ago
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1 month ago
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Quit your complaining. You're still winning stuff, and yet you have to make a thread to complaining that you're not winning more.

1 month ago
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Yeah, but for months i only see 2-3 pages of giveaways, so odds will be a lot lower. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

1 month ago
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No. Two and a half weeks since my last win.

But I'm ok with it now. I'm used to long breaks in between wins. Besides, I feel that I've won more than my fair share.

I probably won't have another win anymore, or at least not for the next few months. And I'm fine with that. No sense in getting upset about not winning.

1 month ago
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You have won quite a lot for only being here for 8 months, though

1 month ago
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In the past months there were around 1.000 giveaways per day on average. This month so far seems to be below that. If that trend continues despite weekend and some more bundles appearing, but at the same time the amount of active users is constant, then it may be simply a case of users spending their points on less available GAs, ergo more users entering for each of these GAs.

Personally, I would consider it great if there were for GA-makers a possibility to apply a point-multiplicator to GA made (but not to CV). Meaning that e.g. if one makes a GA for Project Cars 3, a possibility to set points required for entering to e.g. 200. This would on one hand mean that persons looking merely for a +1 would more likely avoid such a GA, while also taking some points away that would increase chance of winning at other GAs (some wouldn't enter due to having spent 200 points already on one GA).

1 month ago
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Year ago i won only one game, this year so far nothing. Guess my luck ended.

1 month ago
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Yes... 1 game / year. And i entering whole year...
While i can see users winning games every week...

1 month ago
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Nope, I'm good.

1 month ago
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Closed 1 month ago by fejj122.