[UCI World Tour] Tour de France 2018

Tour de France 2018

Also running: [60 Giveaways] The Mansion - an RPG adventure. & [Formula One] German Grand Prix.

How it works

Predict who is going to win each stage of the Tour.

• Leave your prediction for each stage on the giveaway (they all include maps and profiles and link to the official site).
• Do not edit your predictions if you want to change but delete and create a new one.
• Below is a table with all of them but you can just go the first one and use the "next stage" link.
• We're not going to make it too easy so anyone who just spams the same rider for all stages will be disqualified.

Stages

This table/chart is RaChart™ compatible and was created with Giveaways Table/Chart Creator

Preview

This year has seen some changes as the ASO (the Tour organisers) look the shake things up and keep the viewers interested. We'll see cobbles, dirt roads, a formula one style start (stage 17), and more.

The most apparent change is that all teams are now starting with only 8 riders instead of 9. The riders have been clamoring for this change for a long time as it should make the flat stages a lot safer with fewer crashes. However, many are also saying this change was finally accepted in the hopes of hobbling Team Sky a little (though I doubt it will really work).

And there's this:

Last year there was some dissatisfaction about the progress of the flat stages. There was no battle for the early flight, the peloton always let the first attackers leave quietly. With boring competition hours as a result.

That is what the Tour organization wants to avoid this year. "We decided to introduce bonuses again during the stage", says course designer Thierry Gouvenou. "That will be a plus for the attackers."

"Those bonus prints will not necessarily be on flat roads, but they will be in strategic locations, the sprints will always be between 30 and 8 km from the line and 3, 2 and 1 seconds will be divided into the top 3."

"But from the 10th stage onwards, those bonus prints fall away, because then we cut the mountains", concludes Gouvenou. The bonuses should make the first Tour week extra attractive.

I can't see any GC riders taking risks to get these few seconds.

Sites
Official Site
Wikipedia
A better list of riders than the official site, with thanks to bartwu

General Classification (abbreviated as GC)
This is the one it's all about, who will bring the maillot jaune (yellow jersey) to Paris? It's going to be extremely tough this year; the first nine stages all have the potential to cause havoc for the GC riders before they've even seen a mountain. The field is also incredibly strong this year; apart from Fabio Aru and Thibaut Pinot, all the best riders in the world are here.

• There's been so much written about Chris Froome that I'm gonna keep it short for a change. He's allowed to start so he'll try and go for his record equaling fifth win. Is that possible after a hard fought Giro in May? We'll know in a few weeks. Fact is that he has the strongest team by far (you could easily swap out three riders and they'd be about as strong). Should he not be able to do it then Team Sky has Geraint Thomas (winner of Critérium du Dauphiné last month) waiting in the wings to be a surprise winner this year. Honestly though, don't bet against Froome...
• Everyone is certain; the ASO designed this year's Tour stages for Romain Bardet to win the yellow. With Froome being tired from the Giro (at least in theory) this should be the year for the hope of France (also bolstered by the help of new teammate Tony Gallopin). The time trial on the penultimate day is going to be incredibly interesting; how will he handle last year's debacle? If he doesn't win this time then will he ever?
• Movistar is bringing three possible winners according to most of the cycling press. Personally I don't think Alejandro Valverde is looking for a good GC qualification. But Mikel Landa and Nairo Quintana most certainly are. Landa was a very important lieutenant for Froome just last year and he knows how Team Sky operates. The big question is what Movistar is thinking and what their team orders are. Both of these men could be their leader but they could also use one to go for stage wins and tease out the other GC candidates. According to the Italian press Landa is already looking to leave Movistar again; if this is true then we could see this reflected in the Tour.
• Richie Porte's string of bad luck continued to plague him last year when he had a horrible crash in the 9th stage; fracturing a collarbone and his pelvis. He's back this year though, winning the Tour de Suisse and having just become a father. Can BMC support him enough in the mountains? He has Damiano Caruso and Tejay van Garderen.
• Last year Rigoberto Urán surprised a lot of people with his second place in the GC. You'd think more people would expect him to do well this year but no one is seeing him as a potential winner this year. Hopefully for him, Pierre Rolland and Daniel Moreno will be there for (moral) support.
• The Shark of Messina, Vincenzo Nibali, is taking another shot at becoming a multiple winner of the Tour de France; his first victory was in 2014. He won La Primavera this year but nothing else, though he did skip the Giro specifically to focus on the Tour. He's 33, so age-wise he could certainly still do it but can Bahrain-Merida support him enough in a grand tour?
• While I would so love to see Tom Dumoulin win this year, it doesn't seem likely. This is the first time he's attempted two grand tours so close together and he had to go really deep in the Giro. And there's not that many time trial kilometres. What also doesn't help is that Wilco Kelderman injured his shoulder once again and won't be there to help him. The bright side is that my favourite rider of all time, Laurens Ten Dam, was called up to be his replacement.
• Simon Yates was incredibly impressive in the first weeks of this year's Giro. Now Team Mitchelton-Scott are bringing Adam Yates for this year's Tour; can he do as well (or better) as his twin brother? He was fourth in 2016. The team left Caleb Ewan home just to focus completely on the GC this year.
• Daniel Martin was sixth last year (with fractured vertebrae after stage 9, no less!); it'll be hard enough for him to do that again this year.
• Last year Bauke Mollema was lieutenant for Alberto Contador in his very last Tour. This year Bauke is the captain once again. He's always been the nearly man, could he make it to the podium? I'd love to see it but the competition is incredibly tough this year.
• Team LottoNL-Jumbo are bringing four horses to bet on this year and that might be too much, even more so with only 8 riders this year. Steven Kruijswijk is the nominal GC rider with Robert Gesink either there to support him or go for mountain stage wins. Dylan Groenewegen is there to win sprints. And then we have Primoz Roglic... He really showed his potential last year and he might just be a GC surprise this year.
• I'm running out of time but should also mention Jakob Fuglsang, Bob Jungels, and Ilnur Zakarin as GC contenders.

King of the Mountain (often abbreviated as KoM)
The maillot a pois (polka dot jersey) goes to the best climber; who will it be this year? Obviously the GC riders will all feature in this classification but there are some others... Double points are up for grabs for the final climb in the three Pyrenean stages: the Cat.1 Col du Portillon, the HC Col du Portet and the HC Col d'Aubisque.

• Last year Rafal Majka crashed out of the Tour in stage 9. He won the KoM in 2016 and 2014 and has three mountain stage victories so far. I'm hoping for more. He has said that this year he wants to focus on a good GC ranking; a big mistake, in my view.
• Warren Barguil won the jersey last year but the headstrong Frenchman left the Team Sunweb collective to go to the Fortuneo-Samsic Pro-Continental team. You could definitely consider this a step down but here he's the head honcho and he'll have only one focus; winning mountain stages.
• With Movistar's two GC contenders doing their thing, would that leave enough room for Alejandro Valverde to gather the points he needs?
• Mikel Landa could also see this as a consolidation prize if his GC dreams go up in smoke.
• It's going to be very interesting to see what Primoz Roglic will do this tour; it's not impossible he'll end up as the KoM (he ended up second last year).
• The ever attacking Thomas De Gendt was third last year. His team doesn't have anyone for the GC and he can do his thing all Tour long.
• Omar Fraile could go for it but it depends on how Jakob Fuglsang feels about the GC.
• The same problem faces Jarlinson Pantano; will Bauke Mollema want him near at all times?
• Lilian Calmejane is a rider who might be targeting the polka dot jersey this year.

Sprinters
Going by last year there's only one favorite but we might be in for something more interesting.

• After winning every bunch sprint he contested at last year's Tour de France, Marcel Kittel should go into the 2018 edition – one with even more opportunities for the fast men – as the top dog, the man to beat. Yet everything seems far more uncertain since he swapped the blue of Quick-Step for the red of Katusha-Alpecin. The German has only won two races all year, both at Tirreno-Adriatico in March. By this point last year he had won eight times, and nine times the year before.
• After winning four stages of last year's Giro d'Italia on his Grand Tour debut, Quick-Step wasted no time in making Fernando Gaviria their number one man for the Tour. They are missing one man from their lead-out train, but will that stop him?
• Peter Sagan's Tour de France last year went quite differently than both he and I imagined. He's back with something to prove. The big question is if he wants to even mix it up in the bunch sprints this year; he did beat Gaviria recently. There seem to be only two other stages with his name on it. Still, there's no doubt he'll be wearing the green jersey if he makes it to Paris, equalling Erik Zabel's record.
• With his victory on the Champs-Élysées last year, Dylan Groenewegen showed the world he is ready for the grand tours. He's won nine stages this season, so far; will he add any in the Tour?
• Last year was pretty terrible for Mark Cavendish; mostly crashes (including in the Tour) and illness. But two years ago he won four stages in the Tour while most had already written him off. He's back this year and has now publicly acknowledged that he would like to equal or better Eddy Merckx's record of 34 Tour victories (the 'Manx Missile' has 30 right now).
• Groupama-FDJ are betting everything on Arnaud Démare this year. He has a well oiled lead-out train and proved last year that he can do it.
• Michael Matthews won the green jersey last year after Sagan went out. This year his team will be focusing a lot more on the GC and he can't really compete with the big guns on the flat finishes. He is the most likely candidate to bring home the green after Sagan.
• It's been quite a while since we've seen impressive Sonny Colbrelli wins; can he come back?
• André Greipel did not win a Tour stage last year after winning at least one stage in every Tour de France since 2011. Has his time come and gone?
• Ever since his terrible training accident it has been very hard for John Degenkolb to return to his past form; I really feel for him.

Feel free to leave your predictions for jersey winners and other speculations in the comments below.

Man of the Tour

I said it last year, and I was right, but for the wrong reasons... Peter Sagan will be the man of the Tour. If he has the legs to beat Gaviria and Kittel then he could potentially win ten stages but that would be silly. Still, he's still the Man of the Tour, here's hoping he'll make it to Paris!

Tour Trivia

Sylvain Chavanel will be starting his 18th Tour de France this year. Last year he equaled the record of Jens Voigt and Stuart O'Grady and now he will be the sole record holder.

Adam Hansen rode 20 consecutive grand tours; an amazing record that came to an end at the Giro a few months ago. He started his run with the Vuelta in 2011 but he won't be appearing in the Tour de France this year.

View attached image.