You are really bad at maths, aren't you?
1000+ people per giveaway, you entered 60. You have about a 6% chance to have won by now.
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WTF man? You have no idea how probability works. Probability doesn't sum up with each event! For example, if you enter 100 giveaways with 1% chance of winning you won't have 100% chance to win!
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Now that I vented my rage on someone thinking I'm really that stupid: I understood it that way that Jovito thought Delta calculated wrong, which I then corrected. And the chance of winning after entering 100 giveaways with 100 entries (which are extremely rare anyway) would be in fact 36.6%, see, I'm not an idiot.
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Your calculation is incorrect. If we use the example of each giveaway having 100 entires in total, and you've entered 100 of them, the chances of having won at least one would be calculated like this 1-(1-0.01)^100, what you calculated was the chance of not having won :P
But yea, Delta was pretty much right (less than .2% wrong).
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I doubt probability can be considered basic math.
Though you do seem to doubt yourself a lot :p
Now that I vented my rage on someone thinking I'm really that stupid
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I skim read it as ' is 6 '. About 6 is right.
However, you need to practice your maths. The probability is NOT 60/1000.
The probability of winning at least once is 1 - ( 999/1000 )^60.
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I can't believe this. It's like everyone is seeing something entirely different to what I tried to say... Damn, I think I need to stay off SG for a while, this is really hurting my self-esteem.
Regardless, for the final time, let me try to explain, though it seems pointless:
When I read what you said to Delta, I understood it as: 'No, 60/1000 is not 6%' I corrected that. Then shit really hit the fan and now half of SG thinks I don't understand probability. I didn't say a thing about it being the probability for anything.
And my other comment was meant to be ironic, but apparently even that eluded most of the people here.
...
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Ummm... No.
If we start with 1000 entries in total, he gets one entry, and he does this 60 times. That's (1000/1) x 60, not (1000/60) x 1. His overall chance of winning in such a case is approximately 0.001 or 0.1% per entry.
As the number of occurrences increases, however, the likelihood of his repeated failing goes down, meaning that his estimated chance of winning goes up. There are ways to calculate the likelihood of repeated failure, but reality dictates that past history is no guarantor of future events. No matter how many times you flip a coin, the next time will still give you a 50/50 chance for it to land on either side.
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Everyone in this thread is wrong. Google geometric distributions.
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I don't know number of entries. So I used something simple for TC to understand that his odds were still hopeless at this point.
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Get 2 more & have enough for spinnin skyrimz on yo ride.
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Yeah this website should just give you steam keys if you promise to be it's best friend. That would make a lot more sense.
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I've entered a lot of giveaways too, maybe saying thank you up your odds. try doing that.
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I know, it's a hard concept to think about right? I actually had someone say "that doesn't up your odds", well no shit but being nice and thanking someone for something they don't have to do is, you know, a good thing to do.
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if the world spun around my genitals that would be a lot more fun
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Formatting is fun.
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It's called probability. Lets just say for simplicity that all the giveaways you entered had 1200 people that entered in each giveaway. You are one person out of the 1200 that entered so your probability of winning is 1 in 1200. Therefore you can expect to win about one game for every 1200 you enter.
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and then get banned for having multiple accounts :P
btw were you already suspended for winning same game 3 times? :>
people that do naughties should really stop posting on forums because someone will always check their profile just from boredom :P
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nops... i won multiple times because the damn easy sg (which i love), just ignore that i block the game i already own (since it is a dlc the sg do not find it... and since i enter in ga in 2 different computers... well.. you got the idea)
So everytime i won it, even though i asked to the gifter to reroll, he just started another ga. (i even started ticket for reroll but the mods told me the giver had to do so)
edit: if I'm not mistaken you do not need the 100 dollars account to make giveaway do you?
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I haven't won anything in life.
Scratch cards, raffle draws, spin the wheel, coin toss (I'm serious, I haven't won a coin toss yet... I'm completely baffled as to how), roulette, and so on and so forth.
Why? Maybe every game of chance I go to is rigged!
No my friend it's just called probability, just like how you've never been struck by lightning on a walk outdoors (which by luck may have it has happened to me 16 years ago [I'm completely rehabilitated though... no super powers unfortunately.])
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Psh the Chernobyl disaster happened a year before I was born... yet no super heros have emerged at all. I'm very disappointed :(
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Everyone knows the best super villains are from Belgium
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Easy solution, log off and forget about this site!
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i have entered a lot of games ad i havent gotten one i just whant a game. im starting to have my doubts about this website a
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