How many games have you won in your first 2K entries?
I felt that would cover most people. What other numbers/ranges are you suggesting?
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I'd imagine 0, 1, 3, 4 and 6 to also be numbers people might wanna choose. ^_^'
(Personally, I fall under "don't remember". :D )
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I'm trying to edit it but I apparently I can edit everything except for the poll.
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No worries, it's not that big of a deal.
(And, yeah, you can't edit polls after starting a discussion. It's to prevent abuse and stuff.)
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I don't really see how people would abuse a poll, but having been on this planet for long enough, I'm not surprised.
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One could abuse the poll by changing the title/question after people vote on it, like going from "are video games fun?" to "is murder good?" after a bunch of people already recorded their answer (which would presumable be overwhelmingly "yes" on a site such as this.) Or the answers could be switched from "yes or no" into "no or yes" or something along those lines. Or you could add a new answer after people voted and it would look like nobody wanted to choose that option when in reality it wasn't an option when they voted
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Two games in 2000 entries is not particularly bad luck, if you are mostly entering main page giveaways that have about 1000 entries each by the time they close. Awhile ago, I made a thread analyzing the winning probability statistically: https://www.steamgifts.com/discussion/IRi4K/analysis-of-winning-probability
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So if I'm getting this right, you generally have a rough estimate of 0.01% of winning in level-0 giveaways. At least according to your sample.
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In my sample the estimate was WinChance = 0.000970906 which is about 1 in a 1000. This will vary per time depending on how actively people are entering each month/week/day. You can estimate it from your own entered giveaways by looking at some of your past completed giveaways at https://www.steamgifts.com/giveaways/entered, and counting the average of (1/K), where K is the number of entries in a particular completed giveaway.
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Yeah, that's 0.1%. Apparently, I'm a little drunk.
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Don't remember... but what I do know is, it took 1195 entries before I had my first win.
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12 games, but most trains or giveaways of 200 or more copies
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Well, those games usually turn out to be mediocre at best, so I don't really bother.
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best game i ever won was speedrunners, or maybe train station renovation. Help will come tomorrow is a good game too but I haven't played it yet.
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Those were given away in hundreds of copies? Because they're much better than what I usually come across.
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I went back and looked. I won 1 game (PixelJunk Monsters Ultimate).
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Not everyone has two wins by 2000 entries
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That's tough. They're probably only after popular games.
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Not to mention Khalaq was basically forced to have his first win if I recall.
That was fun story to read
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Not sure but I recall someone reaching 4k entries without win. Don't have documentation for verification, though. Only found at least 3065 entries without win.
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I think my first 2K win has been Bioshock. Which maybe even fits to 2k entries. I do not remember.
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I'd be more interested in how many people have played their first win.
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I have. It was a half-baked, under-developed game that I kinda regret not checking its gameplay before entering.
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Not my first but third win, it was a moba game (Sins of a Dark Age) that pulled from Steam and shut down the servers later, I didn't play it, only have played time from card drops. Though it was a 15,000 copy giveaway created by the developer, so no big deal I guess.
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Made me check. F.E.A.R 2.
Played it after I finished F.E.A.R. 1. The changes were a bit jarring and I didn’t get very far.
The first game is awesome, and while the graphics are dated, I still recommend it
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I have won 8 games, but only have 1330 entries Normally I just enter for stuff on my wishlist which tend to be el cheapo puzzle games.
Depressingly the game I won that i had most looked forward to playing made me violently ill with motion sickness (Bendy and the Ink Machine)
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Hey, that one is on my wishlist too. Gotta love the art style.
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1 for me. I personally had begun to get really low morale & was about to just call it quits on SG until I was directed to the "Unlucky-7" group. Since you've already been on SG for 2 months, you can apply to the group - there's much higher chances to win quality games in the group until you hit 8 wins, at which point you're no longer unlucky. :) I encourage you to give the group a shot, I found many nice people there!
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I did come across a post about it early on when I was still figuring out how things work. I believe there was a 2-month requirement, which, as you mentioned, is possibility now that I've already been here for 2 months. Thanks.
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Three, apparently. Thanks for the puzzle of trying to figure out how to work that out!
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I only ever entered 1K giveaways, and won 3, but that was many years ago, so won't be representative of current chances in any way.
And to answer Mayanaise, I never played my first win. I played the other two though didn't finish them. My first win was Half-Life 2 Episode 2, and it completed my HL2 collection, but I never finished HL2 so never got to the episodes.
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I finished HL2, but couldn't get through Ep. 1 with the War of the World walkers/striders XD
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If you want to know your luck check https://www.steamgifts.com/stats/personal/community "Luck Per Month"
There are many people that won 10+ fewer games that basic chance would suggest.
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You can enter Unlucky-7 group and level up your chances to win. And then start to search for another groups, where giveaway entries is about 50-200, but not open to all with 2000-6000. And as for me 2 wins for 2000 entries is really good.
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My first real win was at 6300 or something (it was 367 days after I registered here). So I'm 0 in this poll.
But I don't count my actual first win which was a fake giveaway, I don't remember its number. Could be in 3K range.
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if i remember correctly i've gotten my first game at sub 3000 entries ... i remember that one generous steamgiftuser sent me world of goo, because i've commented on more than 1000 giveaways in my first month and not wiinning anything
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Yeah never gonna remember, if I look at my win list maybe 2? I won 8 days after I joined and I assume I didn't enter 2k games by then and I don't believe I had that amount by my 2nd win, but back then I didn't do just wishlist only so maybe I did manage that. After that it took 5 months, probably when inactive to win again. It's been 5 years since those wins and I never looked at my entry so it could be more
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Yes, the amount of entries over time would be interesting to keep track on the account stats, but I guess that's only hidden in the probability of winning per day.
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So as I'm nearing my 2K entries, with only 2 games won (both of which have relatively higher chances), I wonder how many games others have won in their first 2K entries, that is, if you still remember. Not that I doubting my bad luck, but just out of curiosity. And to make it easier, I'll set a poll so you don't have to type if you're too lazy to.
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