Is Steamgifts rigged?
hello im one of steamgifts creator. so longstory short, i configured the system in such a way that the game could not be won by the user who gave negative feedback to the game Battlefield 2042 cos Electronic Arts pay me 0,69$ per day. thats a secret info but im telling it to you right now. trust me and have a nice day.
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They don't need you, they are PREDATORS!
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Idk, sometimes I feel like my cat does need me because of he is a predator. And I'm made out of meat*
*partially
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I looked at your stats. need to create 4 more positive reviews on Bad Rats, eFootball 2022, Deadly Premonition 2: A Blessing in Disguise and Underworld Ascendant. good luck!
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I've only been here for 4 months and I've won once
Giveaways Entered
1,144
Gifts Won
1
Gifts Sent
50
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You’re both right on track! This isn’t scientific, but I’ve found you mostly won’t be disappointed if you expect one win per 1200 times you entered a giveaway. I got the 1200 number from the stats of a few level 0 users. Of course your odds increase with level, but I still go by 1:1200 at levels 1-4 so that doing better than 1:1200 feels lucky and matching it doesn’t feel unlucky.
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Tough luck, you can call it rigged to cope but its nothing more than you being unlucky.
High win rate accounts are most likely from entering group giveaways or invite only giveaways, with no information on what you enter compared to these supposedly "high win rate accounts" has not even a stench of fish, no salmon no cod no nothing.
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The high win rates accounts with no giveaways of their own are mostly bots that automatically enter every giveaway they can. If you enter only for games that you're actually interested in playing your chances are lower than the chances of the bots.
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I have changed nothing in how I enter give aways. I still enter the same or more give aways compared to 8 years ago. But 4 years of no wins makes me not want to bother.
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it's not the amount of giveaways you enter, it's how many other people enter them as well
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Im aware of that. There are only ever a few hundred entries for the ones I enter. Some have a few thousand but those are in the minority. From what I see, there is no difference in the number of entries now compared to 8 years ago.
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Well, entering more giveaways slightly increases the chances.
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It's just the way the cookie crumbles. I've definately given away a lot more than I've won, but then I don't enter for absolutely every game I see. Some game genres are not for me. I don't enjoy trash games and so on.
Some of the accounts that are winning insane numbers of GAs are just entering everything and anything. They don't care and probably don't intend on playing any of the games, just want a +1 and to farm the cards.
If you're entering for stuff that you actually want and you also give away keys that you don't want, you're probably going to end up with more given than won. Not a huge issue if you actually win some things that you will play. ^^
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Gifts Won
48 ($836.53)
Gifts Sent
36 ($455.65)
You're ahead, and by quite a bit. How is that rigged or fishy?
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My win rate: 0.0014757424829367
Your win rate: 0.002724795640327
You are ahead of me :|
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your calculation of win rate is plain wrong. you have to take the amount of enties into account for each
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you divided amount of your wins by amount of your entries, which is wrong. you have to sum up the the ratio of 1 divided by amount of entries for each giveaway you entered to get the correct number
so if you entered three giveaways, one with 100 entries, one with 500 and one with 1000, you'd need to sum up 1/100 + 1/500 + 1/1000 etc
p.s. i do believe stats page actually gives you the correct number of how lucky/unlucky you are - https://www.steamgifts.com/stats/personal/community
The last statement in the "Luck Per Month" section
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I think you're conflating a few different figures, and miscalculating one of them.
Win rate is indeed wins/entries, as rapturas did. You're talking about an overall CHANCE to win, though, which is determined by the number of entries within each giveaway, and that's more complicated than your equation above, which would, with enough giveaways, result in a chance greater than 100% (which is obviously impossible).
For what you're suggesting, determining the overall chance to win, you need the product of the chances of LOSING each giveaway. Using your example, you'd to multiply (99/100) (499/500) (999/1000) = 0.987. Subtract that from 1, and you get 0.013, or a 1.3% chance to win at least one of those three hypothetical giveaways.
You're also right that comparing win rates alone is not useful. rapturas might be entering giveaways for more popular games with lower chances to win, which would predictably give him a lower win rate than you.
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You're also right that comparing win rates alone is not useful. rapturas might be entering giveaways for more popular games with lower chances to win, which would predictably give him a lower win rate than you.
And to add to this, the SG stats of "you won x ewer gifts than estimated since you first joined" is also misrepresented by many. They claim that a big enough number makes them unluckier than someone with a smaller number.
I won 3 games fewer than I should have, let's say Pe4enie did as well.
That means I won 324 instead of 327, 99.08% of expected. (324/327)
Pe4enie won 109 instead of 112, 97.32% of expected. (109/112)
Both of us won 3 games fewer as expected, and they still had a lower won/expected relation. It's even easier to see if we theorize outliers: what if someone won 3 instead of 6? Literally 50% of expected. What if someone won 3000 instead of 3003? 99.9%.
It's perfectly okay to be 5-10-15 in the negative or positive when someone is around the thousand wins, because it's still closer to perfectly random chance than a 9-instead-10 wins situation.
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It's perfectly okay to be 5-10-15 in the negative or positive when someone is around the thousand wins, because it's still closer to perfectly random chance than a 9-instead-10 wins situation.
Totally agree, and I'd add to this that since this is random, it's also nearly impossible for everyone to win exactly as much as chance would suggest they "should." The win rate should approach the chance rate, but if everyone won exactly as many games as probability would predict, that would be incredibly suspicious. Randomness means that some people will end out ahead and others will end out behind.
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yep, you wrote exactly what I meant (but couldn't put into words for some reason) and much more eloquently (and correct) for that matter
also agree with the comments within the discussion with adam1224
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Losing giveaway after giveaway sucks, and I can only imagine what it must feel like to go 4 years without a win. I imagine it's very frustrating. But at the end of the day, you've given away 36 games you didn't want, and won 48 you did want. How is that a bad thing?
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Giveaways Entered: 0
Maybe post from your other account that has millions of wins :P
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Having a mod position and not using it to hack the system to win more games? I'm disappointed at how humble you are? :(
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You need SteamGifts Premium to increase your winning chances.
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Wait.... people actually join steamgifts expecting to win? I learn new things every day
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No, I joined to give away games I dont use. But it is nice to win sometimes.
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How many giveaway have you entered in the last 4 years?
What does your stats page say? Do you have won, overall, more or less giveaways than expected?
Do you entere group or private giveaways?
Overall you have about one win per 680 entries, that's way better than the (round about) 1 in 1000 for public giveaways only.
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Ah, you didn't buy the Steamgifts Premium package. There's your problem.
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some valid points there, they didn't even play half their wins from 4 (or more) years ago:
Games with any Playtime 47.6% (20/42)
Games with Playtime... ≥5 hours: 7.14% (3/42), ≥10 hours: 7.14% (3/42)
i guess it's just karma ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Whoooomsh!
(I have now fixed it, try entering again)
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Can I be next?
And apply Luck Booster x3 too, please. I'll pay with Robux, as always. Thanks.
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It's just statistics...
In GTA Online in the video game arcade there's this cabinet Shiny Wasabi Kitty claw which is basically just your average claw machine where you can win plushies to decorate your Arcade office and also a corresponding very rare T-shirt for each plushy.
Supposedly the win chances are 1:50 yet I've played roughly 450 times (plus a few I didn't keep track of) since I won my 2nd and last one and I still haven't gotten the Rasta Kitty or the horny Ninja (Post) Master.
😄😅😂😆😐😕😢
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Time to look into Group Recruitment threads I guess
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Quite simply, and obviously, you increase your chances of winning by entering giveaways with fewer entries. There are three methods to achieve this:
- Increase your level, so you are competing with fewer users. The downside to this is there are also fewer higher-level giveaways (right now there are only 50 Level 6+ GAs running).
- Join groups. Go to the Group Recruitment topic and find groups to join. However, many of the groups with the best chances of winning also require you to giveaway each month. Probably best and most well known is Playing Appreciated which just requires you to play your win within a month.
- Be whitelisted. This isn't really something you have control over, though some users post whitelist recruitment threads.
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Join groups. There are plenty of groups that have low to no requirements to join. Like Delete giveaway if key is not working. Join it and you already will be able to participate in giveaways with only 100-300 participants in each. Most of the giveaways are not for excellent games, but there are some playable titles from time to time.
Grow you Contributor Level. Right now you are competing against a lot of people and bots. The chance to win something (especially something good) on 0-1 lvl is really low. Even on level 3 you compete against 14k people. Got to lvl 5 and competition will be 3 times lower.
Be active, look for giveaways in discussions. Currently there are some hidden giveaways for good and excellent games. Just as an example: A Plague Tale: Innocence with 186 participants and 0.54% probability of winning.
Be active, do something that will make people add you to their whitelist :)
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Gifts Won 1,623 ($14,616.32)
Gifts Sent 2,110 ($24,365.14)
Yeah it's rigged, i gave too many.. Actually i won more (even had a day with 10 wins way before i had this much more sends, now my chances are actually a lot lower to win something (but i also got 10k games filtered because i already own them).
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Perused your profile. Turns out the way the win more is to join more group, or private giveaways. Also, have a high contribution value. I'd say at least have a CV of 2 or 3. I don't know why OP is complaining since he's won quite a bit across his time spent on SG.
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There are what i call "circle jerk" groups (and some in my opinion are abusing the cv system to just "trade" with friends, or even alts), where there are mostly 30 entries, sometimes barely even 5, i even was in one of those groups for a short period, but i won more then i could give away, i couldn't keep up with being able to give back due financial reasons, so i had to leave.
I am on over 1000 whitelists, partially due my cv, but also on just being active on the forum (i done a weekly jigidi event (and advent) event for several year which also helped.
But with 10000 games owned i also would not see many of the games people gift to their whitelist people but that's a luxury problem. :p But yeah if he would have been more active on the forum just joining discussions, perhaps do some events of their own, he could have gotten all that too.
The last few months though this forum seems to be toned down to mainly discussions about deals, bundles, and a few small other things though, activity really even lessened.
But also if you win back or not, i just like to believe in karma too, just to do right things (and getting it back), his last giveaway is from 2 years ago, doesn't automatically mean he will more (right away) but atelast keeps your rep up, and who knows a bit of karma back.
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The number of entries per give away hasnt really changed over the past 6 years
This sentence is incorrect. At least for public GAs.
The entries numbers raised by a lot in the last 5 years. Thanks to all the autojoiner and multiaccounts
Which means the chances to win in public GAs decreased by a lot.
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As some others have said, be a little more judicial with the giveaways you enter. Level up, join some groups and whitelists, and enter puzzle giveaways that are posted in discussions frequently. In my case, it seems to go in spurts. I'll have periods where I win several in a single month and then several months where I win nothing.
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I can't say I've had any issue, although I've won 1:2 of my amount of giveaways. I partake in giveaways daily, once early in the morning and once in the late afternoon to make sure I use all my gathered up 400 points.
I don't know if this has to do with your overall contribution, but maybe your luck will increase based on that. People that have high wins and low giveaway counts are either part of giveaway groups, or another method of winning.
I am really sorry to hear you're struggling to win games here.
PS: Play some of the amazing games you've won. There's no point in growing a library if we don't get to play it. 🥰 I tend to appreciate more my games. I highly recommend joining groups and activity groups like Play A Game You Won. There's people there that reward you for playing a game you won and there's a higher chance to win games.
Lastly, I'd recommend joining reliable, private groups, that do amazing giveaways. I've won some games that I'm quite happy with, but of course, there's rules to it, where you need to give giveaways as well. It's a win-win situation.
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The Steamgift gods are waiting for you to play your wins before they bestow more upon you.
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I've been a member now for 9 years. Won nothing in 7 years.
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Human sacrifice usually works, do you have any spare virgins or a first born son lying around?
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Remember that you get one guaranteed win for each function of your sacrificial knife!
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This can be fun if you up-convert your virgins to firstborns. ALWAYS get consent first, but you'll find most virgins would rather sacrifice their virginity than their lives. YMMV, but while firstborns can't give consent (I mean to be sacrificed. Don't be gross.) , their parents* can, so you may find some less ethical virgins will gladly consent to sacrificing their firstborns at a later date.
*Obvious bonus if you are one of the parents.
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I mean... it did work for Abraham until god stopped him in the very last minute and revealed it was just a prank 😅 Afterwards he was god's favourite, right?
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Hands of my virgins and first-born son! (I need them for my own sacrifices to the Steamgifts gods.)
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I've been a member now for 8 years. I haven't won any giveaways in 4 years even though I have entered into 32,526 give aways.
In the past 4 years I have won nothing, zero, zip!
This leads me to believe that something is wrong with SteamGifts. Maybe because I haven't given away any games in a long while? The number of entries per give away hasnt really changed over the past 6 years, and it's supposed to be random draws.
Anyone else experienced this? I see some accounts with ridiculously high win rates without giving anything away. Something smells fishy!!
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