Did you crieverytiem?
A couple weeks ago when the win estimator gave me a 98% chance to win, but I didn't.
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Aw man, losing with 3 entries sucks. xD
My lowest losses were with 5, 6 and 15 entries - the last one being a wishlisted game as well!
I think it's worse than popular wishlist giveaways tbh because you just hype yourself up so much. D;
Edit: I just saw that you won my biggest loss LOL what a coincidence! :D
I hope you'll enjoy that game wholeheartedly! :)
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Which one?
Small world...
Got curious and went digging, It was Papo & Yo, I'm planing to play the game very soon.
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Yep, missing pricing errors make me sadder than losing a giveaway. :(
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Any way to know of a price error when it happens (threads to subscribe to etc)?
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Yep, Reddit is pretty much the best place to go for that stuff. There may be a few Steam groups as well, but they usually spam you with other stuff, so yeah... no. :P
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two giveaways for The Witcher 3 with around 150 entries each,
That's about 1,3% chance to win, and you thought you could easily win :S
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Well it's 150 entries each so it's even halved. xD
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Not long ago, I was in 2 ga with 2 entries each, and the other guy won both ga xD
That's funny even with more than 100% statistically speaking (with the other ga of that day) chance to win, you can still lose ^^
Don't expect to win anyting, and be happy if you win =)
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50% to win either of them, separately.
50% to win one of them. 25% chance to win both. 25% chance you won't win neither.
Not sure if you're doing your statistics right.
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?
I didn't said I had 100% to win both.
And the 100% come from the stat page. https://www.steamgifts.com/stats/personal/community
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Ah, I get it, sorry. Yeah. That stat page feels so deceiving.
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You're a little confusing TBH.
If the page sums up the chances (like 25%+25% etc) then it's faulty because of what Loket wrote, it's not additive. If it multiplies (like in his example, 50% twice = 75% win) then it will never reach 100% as it's only possible if yours is the only entry. There is no such thing as more than 100% as you wrote "even with more than 100% statistically speaking"
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But If you enter a massive ga with more copies than entries like this https://www.steamgifts.com/giveaway/UiQxa/monsti
You have 100% chances to win, and it's not the only ga you have for this day, so you virtually have above 100% right?
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The stats page show your chance of winning *something* :) 0% is surely not, 100% is sure that you'll win something.
It shouldn't go above it, as from statistical standpoint (about chances) more than 100% does not exist because it makes no sense, as chance stands for "good events" divided by "all events". In a giveaway's case, good/avaited event is you winning, all events are anyone winning. (10 person, including you: 1/10). If it's value is more than 100%, then it would mean stuff like "out of 6 rolls of a die, you won 7 times" which objectively makes no sense and is impossible :D
It's often getting mixed up, a value can go above 100% (150% increase for something makes it 250% - /2.5 times of the original) but because of the definition of probability it's limited between 0 and 1 (0 and 100%).
Though that makes me curious if you're in a guaranteed win GA and others that end on the same day, will it still show 100% (because you'll surely win something from the mass GA) or will make it less than 100% because it will force an average between all entered giveaway.
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I know it's not possible to go over 100% here, that's why I said virtually. ^^
I had several times 100%, usually about 2 or 3 times per months, not in the last 30 days tho :P
I'm pretty sure if the value could go over 100%, I already have 1 time with about 350%, (many wl and privates ga for the same day with very low entries)
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Ah, okay :D unless there's a bundle with a game I want I usually have less than 10-15 giveaways entered, this year's max chance of winning was 17%, so I couldn't check myself :D
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But maybe the system round up to 100% If you have more than 99,5% since the decimal are always ,00
It shouldn't be able to hit 100% but 99,99% max because anything can happen (people not delivering the key or reroll or system failure or I don't know ^^)
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Have you tried by entering? It's the only way it works it seems.
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Feel you ): 4 years and 2 wons only. 1 of those was a DLC.
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ok in the other guys case. he hasn't done anything giveaway related it seems!
you are a level 1. which unfortunately barely does a dent in the vast number of users going for the same giveaways as you. maybe a tiny few hundred people difference at best for the same game lvl 0 lvl 1 giveaway.
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Sometimes I wonder if you just never entered giveaways so that you could post this on any threads about not winning. :P
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Nothing, i only become sad when i spill some milk.
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In my profile, Bacteria: a region—locked giveaway for 100 copies, with 101 entries. Can you feel all the sorrow and pain* of that last man?..
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This made me feel better about the times I've missed out on giveaways with 100s of copies and thousands of entries...
Poor guy must have been devastated...
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Ohhhh you should find this person and give him or her something nice. I mean it, everyone has bad luck some times but this is killing!
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OMG loooooool The guy better save is money and bot bet, really hope he have all the luck in his love life.
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On my 1st month on SG I spent 3 days solving some really really hard puzzle. I ended up being one of only 2 solvers and reward was Total War Rome afair. Anyway - probably like 5+ hours time spent total during 3 days on one single puzzle and I had 50% chance to win WLed game. And ofc I lost the giveaway :D:
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a game I wanted had a giveaway with over 40 copies and less than 50 entries.
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My saddest loss was when I gave away my favorite game and the person who won it didn't even bother to play it once.
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There's this group, Playing Appreciated, you should check it out!
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Mine was Hopiko with 7 entries, and the same day I lost the chance to win The Little Acre in a group giveaway, 300 entries or so, I have that game wishlisted and is unbundled so the chances of seeing that again are... well. That wasn't a good day for me, I got really sad.
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I have lost several ga's with only 2 entries. Still very happy here :)
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Before i read this, i thought i had some bad luck =))
I have to give it to you, you've got some character! =))
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Probably one of the 8+ pages of Dead Island GOTY Edition giveaways I never won lol, one of which had only 6 entries (which happens to be one of the more encouraging moments I had on this site, where someone created a giveaway to give me another shot at the game. Didn't win it but the effort by that member is one of the reason I decided to try and turn my then ratio of 0.7 won/sent ratio to what it is now. )
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One day I had a 100% winning estimation in the graph (bcuz I joined a huge number of low-entry private GAs, mostly 10-15 entries each including AAA games). I didn't win anything that day <3
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The other day, when I was giving away 3 copies of a game in a group of 700+ people and only 1 person entered...
Guess it wasn't a good enough game.
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does the entirety of that group use steamgifts?
was the giveaway listed for a day or more less?
and damn. one entry. so you got the 2 copies back to giveaway again i'm assuming
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Yes, I would assume so since it's related to this site.
Yes, less... Probably a big part of the why.
Yes, already given them away publicly.
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I had more funny things stuck to me, like when I wanted to check an interesting giveaway for cakeday/something, and I got greeted by the text of "ended 3 seconds ago" :D I don't evne remember what was it, but I had a good laugh at it :)
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I want to know what was your saddest loss you had over here at SG. either being a game you really wanted or one with a really low amount of entries.
Mine was probably when I joined the Unlucky 7 group, and there were two giveaways for The Witcher 3 with around 150 entries each, and I still didn't really understand Steam Gifts, so I thought I could easily win, alas, I got quite sad for losing.
But the giveaway I had the most chance of winning and lost was a whitelist one with only 3 entries including me.
Since I'm still a newbie in SG, I want to hear your sad stories about losing your giveaways.
Feel free to sob, or don't.
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