Unluckiness

Came here to say I won my first game! :)

I am wondering though if there's any relation between creating giveaways and winning games, because it was just after I created my first giveaway!

I'm currently: Overall, you've been unlucky, and won 26 fewer gifts than estimated since you first joined.

My worst month in the past 12 months was -2.11. Fortunately, 3 of the past 4 months have been very positive around +1.5 which is great because I was at -30 at some point.

I've done some calculations about my luck. According to the site, each day I have had between 1.5 and 10% chance of winning. I averaged it to a little over 2%. That should mean there is a 98% chance I don't win. I went for 200+ days in a row with those statistics (better than 2% average chance of winning) without winning a single giveaway. The probability of 200 days in a row of not winning is less than 2%. After several years on here, I am at 19 games fewer than expected according to the stats page. You would expect it to even out after hundreds of trials, but it doesn't appear to be doing so.

at one point I was -5.14 for a month; I don't recall off the top of my head if that was the lowest I've ever seen.
-51 for the last 3 years.
-13.13 for 2021 combined.
In 2019 I had a few consecutive months about -7

Edit: Whups, I missed that this was a year old. Ah well,

About to pass three years without a win. Don't worry, you'll get used to it ♥

-11,33 this year (January)
-11,91 last year (September)
-30 overall luck :D

Mybe bcuz you only enter giveaways from your wishlist, like me :(