How does Estimated Wins work?

I think it checks your chance of winning for everything you have entered, as well as the amount you have entered, then gets the average chance from that...

Your "estimated wins" for a single giveaway equals (1/number of entrants) x number of copies of the game being gifted (usually 1). This holds true unless the number of copies > the number of entrants, in which case your estimated wins for this individual will equal 1.

The "estimated wins" figure shown on your profile is an aggregate figure - a sum of the "estimated wins" figure (as calculated above) for each completed individual giveaway you have entered.

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