Probability of winning

Tl;dr.Shorten it, please?

Exploding brains caused by too much math, that's what's going on here.. thanks, I guess:D

I only win after I get +2 at the estimated wins section and after I get this number it means that in the next 2 weeks I will win 2 games. My story on this awesome giveaway website.

(999/1000)^1000 Not same as probably of loosing

you can say that the (giveaways you entered) - (approimate wins) = (your approximate loses), because there is nothing else than winning or losing and both together are all giveaways you entered. these (all giveaways you entered) /(all loses) = average chance to loose a giveaway ( in your example: (1326/1326)= 1 = 100%)

and yes, if you enter 1000 giveaways your chance to have lost all is 37%, it is NOT the chance that you will win the next one. So you can say : "If I enter 1000 giveaways with 1000 members taking part in them the chance for me NOT to win a single one is 37%. But I have a 0,1% chance to win the next one I enter."
Yes, statistics are hard to understand

hope i could help

So.... there's a GA?

Sometimes luck can suck.

Read this though, it might help. Even if Khalaq seems doomed to never get a win.

The estimated wins of 1 isn't a probability. It's an expected value.

tldr odds aren't cumulative and probability never "dictates" anything.

The estimated wins isn't a probability stat, exactly. It simply adds up your % chances to win for each individual giveaway you entered.

So if you entered 4 giveaways that each had a 20% chance of winning, your estimated wins are .8

Read: Law of large number.

That would clear up many things.

Stats are always just that, stats. Last month I had my estimated wins at 5.00 when hit my fifth win, first one didn't come til sometime after 2.00, I've seen people with twice as many wins as estimated wins, sometimes you win big, sometimes you don't.

Then I remembered about some poor dude who has entered 11000 giveaways, and hasn't won anything yet. I checked the probability of that happening, and... the probability of THAT is 0.001%. So what is going on there?! :O

Well its obvious, if there are more than 100,000 users, someone is likely to fill in that 0.001%

Also I think 11000 seems a bit farfetched, I think its widely assumed Khalaq is the unluckiest person on this site.

So maybe he really is super unlucky.

Even if your EXPECTED wins are at 1 or greater, there's still always a chance you could lose :/

So you're telling me there's a chance... YEAH!

Instead of probability, I recommend you to read about Murphy and his rules. They will definitely make you understand why you do not win.

Multiplying the user amount (403 k ) with 0.001 % shows, that there are statistically 4 people that are as unlucky as the 11k entries guy, so why wonder?

my win total is under my estimated amount and I don't really have a problem with that.

Probability of winning a giveaway being 1/1000 (on average as an example)

So if I enter 1000 giveaways, probability dictates I'd get (1/1000)x1000=1 win, which is what my estimated wins is around now.

Except I didn't. PROBABILITY IS A LIAR! ALL THAT MATH HURT MY SOUL.

Nope, it's not math, it rather has similarity with alchemy or astrology. Hint: binomial/multinomial distributions...

"One side says I should've won by now, the other says I can still lose."

No it does not. It said that statistically you should have won 1 game. It does not mean that the probability of you winning 1 game is 100%. actually in given example (1000 entries with 1000 contestants each) your probability of winning would be 1-Chance of loosing every time, so 1-(0.999^1000)=0.63=63%. Even if you entered 10000 GAs 1000 entries each there would still be a 0.005% chance that you would loose them all, The probability in not-sure experiments (so if GA has more entries than copies that are given away) will never be 100%, no matter how many tries there is. Law of large numbers for future refference.

And learn actual math before you start crying how it does not work.

So

It's good to know what you are entitled to I guess, oh wait. nope

Gotta play smart. Entering 11k 4k people 1 copy giveaways wont get you much good. I got my second win when i had a 0.8 Estimated Win. Lucky yeah, but getting 2 bundled games is way easyer than going for that Skyrim copy - and hell, Bastion is way worth the load of Giveaways I entered :)

And remember, probabilities doesnt stack. Entering 5 (or 10) 20% chance Giveaways doesnt guarantee a win :)

Thanks for skyrim

Logical issues. ugh.
Your statistical chance has no effect on your next giveaway. Thinking the next one has gotta be the one is how gamblers lose everything. It's like rolling a die, a new chance every time, unaffected by its past, only the roll and drop.
Probably of LOSING a giveaway is NOT 999/1000. Probability of losing is: (amount of people entered - 1):(amount of people entered). Very often winning can be as low as 1:5,000 chance, or (rarely) as high as 4:5 (such as the Galactic Arms Race developer giveaway).

Our meat brains cannot cope with randomness. We see 1000 events and each one has a 1% chance of occurring and we think 1 will occur - 1000 could occur. We see 100000 events and each one has a 1% chance of occurring and we think 1000 will occur - 0 could occur. We do statistics and see that the chances of things being as they are are slim and we perceive that something is wrong when nothing is wrong.